"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Put a vonc on it

OK marry me

Can they do more than one? I mean even if they can that would become laughable extremely quickly.

Given the size of this, I’m not sure the other estimated counts that say there is no majority for anything are right. If the govt makes it to the Plan B motion we might get some test votes that cld clear up eg if there is maj for 2nd ref

Also I feel like I neglected to fully give it the HAAAAAAA GET IT UP YE earlier.

FUCK YOUR RED LINES TWO HUNDRED AND THIRTY WAYS

xp The problem there will be that the order things are considered will determine which are the wild-eyed optimisms and which the hard-eyed realisms

Times reporting up to 100 Labour ready to back second ref. But that’s nowhere near enough to get it done.

Labour's in the driving seat here - on the assumption that most of their MPs will vote with the leadership. Throw in the SNP, all but one of the LibDems, independents and various others - they only need a handful of Tory rebels to side with them, which will probably happen on everything except the VONC. The most pressing concern is finding a way of ruling out No Deal, by hook or by crook.

Still feel like ref 2 is vanishingly unlikely with May as PM. Her position feels like the more likely pressure point tonight but idk, this is beyond guessability right now. Maybe she calls it as a personal last resort?

I think extending Article 50 is dead. Junker (? A senior official, not Tusk) said earlier night that the size of the defeat implies it's not something that can get fixed with tweaking so an extension is pointless (read it on twitter, not scrolling back through 1000+ tweets to find it).

Also the German version of the CBI is lobbying against an extension because they just want certainty this close to the event (published their open letter this morning) and with Germany entering recession their economy might take precedence.

Guess ref2 depends if we do get to the place where the govt loses control of business (as is still being talked about for next week) Lab could conceivably do something with that even if May didn’t want to permit it. Real zombie executive territory. But will Corbyn want to take a positive position yet?

Heard an argument from an EU rep this morning about elections being due in April too, don't know how serious that is.

Throw in the SNP

They've made indyref2 a condition of any supply arrangement or pseudo-GNU. Don't forget they're not committed to joined the EU even in an independent Scotland, just that they'd have a referendum on it.

The rumours were apparently true - May setting out more red lines on what she will consider as next steps - still ruling out customs union. Her vs the world.

Is the best of worlds for Labour ("You wouldn't start from here") a GE, A50 extension, then an actual renegotiation of the WA that includes FOM and a customs union? It feels possible.

Heard an argument from an EU rep this morning about elections being due in April too, don't know how serious that is.

Elections are in April, first sitting of new EU parliament in July but near impossible for the UK to extend beyond there so in hypotheticals there are two opportunities (Feb, Mar) for the EU to sign off any revised deal then they go into hiatus until July when the UK could *theoretically* send some dummy representatives for the first sitting to sign off.

It takes less than a handful of Tory (Remain) MPs to decide that a general election is their best/only hope to change the party stance on the de at this point

And losing tomorrow doesn’t mean instant election - she has 14 days to try again so they might risk it.

some dummy representatives

harry hill look to camera here

Xp yeah aldo I think the other point being made was if we're still in we have to participate in the election and "there may not be much appetite for that in the UK right now." I think there are hard limits to the EU's ability to wait

EXCLUSIVE: What tanned David Cameron had to say today while his Brexit gamble backfiredhttps://t.co/qDCmw9EwLa pic.twitter.com/QbKlTVwBdI

— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) January 15, 2019

tanned, rested and ready

A senior official, not Tusk) said earlier night that the size of the defeat implies it's not something that can get fixed with tweaking so an extension is pointless

i wouldn't treat this as a stone-cold statement of how things will with be certainty play out tho: it's still a political signal to produce an effect, the threat of non-extension to, well, i don't know how they're reading tomorrow's events or the next two weeks, so i don't know what it's aimed at producing.* a minimum part of the signal is "mere tweaks are no use, we need big changes", set against the fact that they (and everyone over here) knows TM is making no such changes… so vonc as you will

*(an election maybe?)

lol that was clearly expressed, i shd go into political commentary

A change of attitude and perspective at the very least.

xp I’d rate you over most of the existing commentariat even if you put Mr Blobby references into everything

I think VONC will be won and a very lightly tweaked WA will pass, next most likely is No Deal and abandoning the whole thing a moderately distant third.

If the VONC is lost then fuck knows. Labour still behind in the polls and will have to decide on an actual policy which will cost them votes whichever way. SNP will lose seats, at least some of which to the Tories (hello Pete Wishart and your 21 vote majority, Mhairi Black hasn't exactly endeared herself to her hometown after the hospital saga, or Hannah Bardell's biggest constituency employer closing while Scottish Enterprise stood and watched). So we could even end up with a strengthened majority in which case see above.

If Labour win it, Tusk's words tonight suggest only No Deal or revoke would be on the table. Revoke would have the back bench and membership support but probably not the front bench - the manifesto would be the only thing that helped predict but if it's a serial set of events like we've seen to date then even that might not be clear until the EU eliminate renegotiation.

Our snap @PoliHQ poll, conducted entirely after the #brexit vote tonight, shows a near majority (49%) blame Theresa May and her cabinet for the Brexit impasse in the commons (3,426 UK adults, weighted to be representative of the 18+ population) pic.twitter.com/Z775q3Wbot

— Laurence Janta-Lipinski (@jantalipinski) January 15, 2019

I think these are great numbers if they even somewhat reflect reality.

vonc if yr horny

sorry

How can you flip 230 votes with light tweaks, though?

You can’t. The big sticking point for most of them is the backstop, and that’s pretty much non-negotiable.

The whole dummy reps EU election thing is because we will not be having an EU election unless we revoke. To have any representation we must have representatives but they will have no function - so people would have to be sent as a token but with no actions. Presumably we could send the current MEPs and pay them out of govt funds but they'd play no part in proceedings (much like at the moment, amirite? Lol!!) as all they need to do is fill a technicality to allow negotiating to happen as still theoretically a 'member'. (This was explained in depth by some Belgian EU guy on Today this morning)

"Labour still behind in the polls" are they really though? I keep seeing this being repeated but never see it reflected in the actual polls which have been seesawing 5 points either way since '17 - and let's face it they are mostly noise until there is an election.

I don't think you can flip 230 with Customs Union either.

Last one I saw was Thursday, with Labour 6% behind

who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

so hold on a sec, did the EU rule out at the beginning of all this the possibility of negotiating an agreement that when ratified would trigger article 50?

because in hindsight that would've been less stressful on everyone

In the aggravated version they have been pretty much deadlocked and pollsters like Yougov who reveal that most UK folks don't even use trains on the day of season ticket hikes are so non-partisan.

Customs Union has Lab support though, which (in theory) gets you (most?) of them. It’s one of the few things that could pass. And one that May is implacably opposed to.

That one was done on the 5th which is now ancient history.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 5, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @Survation, 09 - 10 Jan 2019
Chgs. w/ Nov 2018

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 11, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 36% (-1)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+2)
GRN: 5% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 08 - 11 Jan

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 12, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 38% (-)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+1)
Grn: 4% (-1)

via @KantarPublic, 10 - 14 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 15, 2019

These are all from this week. But generally not worth worrying about polls too much atm.

so hold on a sec, did the EU rule out at the beginning of all this the possibility of negotiating an agreement that when ratified would trigger article 50?

It wasn’t the EU’s decision to trigger it, that was entirely on the UK.

May did not have to trigger Article 50 at any point. They could have taken ten years to devise a plan for exit. She chose to trigger it at the earliest possible moment, with no planning or consultation.

The first example of the bold and decisive leadership for which she is so widely acclaimed.

I don't think you can flip 230 with Customs Union either.

i think the "lab 6% behind" was a badly formed PV-sponsored push poll (i def saw it being roasted by ppl who understand polls, which i mostly do not)

tory vote is not going to hold up if may takes the party into an election

re: the polls - YouGov are an outlier. They consistently have figures which are higher for the Tories and lower for Labour than the other polling companies. It doesn't mean they aren't right, but they are the only ones saying that. Generally the polls show little difference between the two and neither would win a majority as things stand, though given how much things swung during the last general election campaign, just about anything could happen.

i mean if may proposed a customs union to get lab on board to pass *something* (seems unlikely but if) then lab cd probably right then peel the ERG away from supporting her in their running vonc project

The Tory vote is highly dependent on keeping the UKIP voters from 2015 onside - that’s why they have such a high floor.

Οὖτις at 11:19 15 Jan 19
who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

Barnsley voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union - now many feel little progress has been made. pic.twitter.com/doopL9YA4H

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) October 20, 2017