"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Tbf I was watching on my phone in the pub with a friend

Checking back on this in half hour gaps is incredible :D

i

If May is going to cling on, I think LBI has it - she has to opt for permanent customs union to get Labour onside and keep the DUP. But then she genuinely will be in a destroy-the-Tories position because that's an actual red line for at least 1/3 of them

― stet, Tuesday, January 15, 2019 9:16 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah. If she stays on - and she will, Baldrick-style - this 'Brexit' will get softer and softer.

Tories will be kicking themselves for squandering their NoConf motion too early.

FWIW I think an entire political generation is about to be swept away off the back of this.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, January 15, 2019 8:14 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

maybe we can start with the commentariat

She's been doing very little except alienate members since she started, though.

what are the options ?

1. go all in on no deal

2. pledge to go back to the EU for concessions (which won't materialise) and just run down the clock some more i.e. no deal by another name

3. rapprochement with labour and soften brexit but split her party

4. extend article 50. in order to do so, she'll have to either offer the EU a concession: election or second ref. she'd probably roll dice on an election (corbyn surge is over, people feel sorry for her yadda yadda). this could - in theory - get her better parliamentary arithmetic though it's most likely this would be a 'kick the bastards out' not a 'steady as we go' election

anything else ?

She could unilaterally cancel A50.

I mean, she won't, but she could.

someone explain to my why all the hyperventilating about 1) just cancelling brexit entirely or 2) having a second referendum?

racists

plus democracy

a potent combo

genuine lol there

The commenters on conhome are obviously nutters, but they're also the backbone of the party, and they'd take Corbyn over a vote that would be seen to legitimise the WA in a heartbeat. And they don't have to vote for him, just refuse to take part in a campaign that will make 2017's look like a well-oiled machine.

Gammy Wilson there, angrily haranguing Channel 4 News for bring facts to his bullshit party. https://t.co/8mRgOeSV7Q

— LAD (@LADFLEG) January 15, 2019

Enjoyed this.

Andrew, you’ll never know how guilty I feel for introducing CH comments here!

Ah no I follow a writer on there because he wrote well about the last election's shambles! Though now I've started going on there every day - I've got a problem.

i’m not sure about this (not sure about anything tbf). doing that wd drive a schism through the conservative party and crucially alienate members. which she won’t do. first rule of tory party. i don’t think we’ll see that sort of rapprochement and no deal still feels v much on the table.

Realness probably:

1. May goes, within her own part or to a new gov. Negotiations probably restart.

2. No deal

Her own party god I hate phones

I mean she could pursue option 2 above and come back to the commons with a ‘revised’ deal (ie the same deal, the only deal which accords to her red lines). by which point we’d probably be staring down the barrel of a no deal exit and she may peal off some more labour rebels and get some tory rebels back on side. but a turnaround big enough to reverse 230 ?

the real opposition

Anna Soubry tells C4News she is “quite shocked” by scale of defeat and will support the Government in vote of confidence tomorrow.

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 15, 2019

I find it more likely that 7 Tories will realise that she will ride this down to the wire, and sign up to one of the weekly votes of no confidence.

I feel like the 50-ish surprise rejecters must be nominally "Tory Remainers" - can't decide what this might mean going forward yet tho

If a motion to extend Article 50 is tabled, does it have the Parliamentary numbers to pass? Depending on how close we are to the cliff I think it does.

If Labour follows the conference motion and backs a second referendum, does THAT have the Parliamentary numbers (taking into account Hoey etc)?

labour are just going to keep tabling VONCs I think, rather than back referendum II

Can they do more than one? I mean even if they can that would become laughable extremely quickly.

Yes. Thatcher took three to topple Callaghan.

Laughable but surely Labour can defend the stance that they’re under no obligation to bail out the government and avoid providing the necessary votes for passage for anything they don’t want.

I thought there was a time elapse limit on VONCs?

Only on the internal Tory party ones which would call a leadership contest, I think.

i don't think they can table more than one a day but i'm not sure there's a limit otherwise (except tactical, strategic, bercow's patience etc)

it's the leadership VONC that are allowed once a year I think.

tory leadership vonc

Put a vonc on it.

that shd be corb's tactic

lol

Huh, just realized for the first time that "to table" means the exact opposite thing in the UK than it does here. Clears up some confusion!

*Scribbles "US table = shelve" on hand*

In Canada it means the same thing as in the UK.

Interviewers should be pushing the point that if the Torys are worried about a Corbyn government it's because they think they will lost. Take the Marty McFly route - call them chicken.

lost = lose

We use table and shelve interchangeably here!

Put a vonc on it

OK marry me

Can they do more than one? I mean even if they can that would become laughable extremely quickly.

Given the size of this, I’m not sure the other estimated counts that say there is no majority for anything are right. If the govt makes it to the Plan B motion we might get some test votes that cld clear up eg if there is maj for 2nd ref

Also I feel like I neglected to fully give it the HAAAAAAA GET IT UP YE earlier.

FUCK YOUR RED LINES TWO HUNDRED AND THIRTY WAYS

xp The problem there will be that the order things are considered will determine which are the wild-eyed optimisms and which the hard-eyed realisms

Times reporting up to 100 Labour ready to back second ref. But that’s nowhere near enough to get it done.

Labour's in the driving seat here - on the assumption that most of their MPs will vote with the leadership. Throw in the SNP, all but one of the LibDems, independents and various others - they only need a handful of Tory rebels to side with them, which will probably happen on everything except the VONC. The most pressing concern is finding a way of ruling out No Deal, by hook or by crook.

Still feel like ref 2 is vanishingly unlikely with May as PM. Her position feels like the more likely pressure point tonight but idk, this is beyond guessability right now. Maybe she calls it as a personal last resort?

I think extending Article 50 is dead. Junker (? A senior official, not Tusk) said earlier night that the size of the defeat implies it's not something that can get fixed with tweaking so an extension is pointless (read it on twitter, not scrolling back through 1000+ tweets to find it).

Also the German version of the CBI is lobbying against an extension because they just want certainty this close to the event (published their open letter this morning) and with Germany entering recession their economy might take precedence.

Guess ref2 depends if we do get to the place where the govt loses control of business (as is still being talked about for next week) Lab could conceivably do something with that even if May didn’t want to permit it. Real zombie executive territory. But will Corbyn want to take a positive position yet?