"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

EU says there's nothing to renegotiate, the loss is *so* massive she can't hope to fix it by tweaking the political agreement, so what use is there in extending A50? Hope? How willing will the EU be to reject a request like that?

boris on c4 news now saying that this vote actually gives may a massive mandate

god what a cunt

How much do you reckon the DUP are asking for their support tomorrow?

If May is going to cling on, I think LBI has it - she has to opt for permanent customs union to get Labour onside and keep the DUP. But then she genuinely will be in a destroy-the-Tories position because that's an actual red line for at least 1/3 of them

Flaccid Brexit is happening

Are we living in a simulation? [Started by Trϵϵship in January 2019, last updated six minutes ago by mh] 303 new answers

boris on c4 news now saying that this vote actually gives may a massive mandate

I mean sure if she was proposing a negative motion

ERG should have kept their powder dry

Developing:

Theresa May said they want to reach out

BUT

No10 also say their principles include securing an independent trade policy.

🚨I.e. no customs union with the EU, Labour’s main ask before talks even start🚨

(Now principles aren’t red lines but strong early hurdle)

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) January 15, 2019

she is incapable of doing herself ANY favours

Boris Johnson’s fringe is doing a noticeable camouflaging of some alarming and recent male pattern baldness!

Not much 'mop on top'.

If May is going to cling on, I think LBI has it - she has to opt for permanent customs union to get Labour onside and keep the DUP. But then she genuinely will be in a destroy-the-Tories position because that's an actual red line for at least 1/3 of them

― stet, Tuesday, January 15, 2019 9:16 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah. If she stays on - and she will, Baldrick-style - this 'Brexit' will get softer and softer.

Tories will be kicking themselves for squandering their NoConf motion too early.

rlb had veneers ?!

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tables motion of no confidence in UK PM Theresa May's government after heavy defeat in MPs' #BrexitVote

Latest: https://t.co/JXfWlrcIzk pic.twitter.com/DbHiJcQVMZ

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) January 15, 2019

The clip on the news didn't show him taking off his glasses. <key political importance.

rlb had veneers ?!

Tbf I was watching on my phone in the pub with a friend

Checking back on this in half hour gaps is incredible :D

i

If May is going to cling on, I think LBI has it - she has to opt for permanent customs union to get Labour onside and keep the DUP. But then she genuinely will be in a destroy-the-Tories position because that's an actual red line for at least 1/3 of them

― stet, Tuesday, January 15, 2019 9:16 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah. If she stays on - and she will, Baldrick-style - this 'Brexit' will get softer and softer.

Tories will be kicking themselves for squandering their NoConf motion too early.

FWIW I think an entire political generation is about to be swept away off the back of this.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, January 15, 2019 8:14 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

maybe we can start with the commentariat

She's been doing very little except alienate members since she started, though.

what are the options ?

1. go all in on no deal

2. pledge to go back to the EU for concessions (which won't materialise) and just run down the clock some more i.e. no deal by another name

3. rapprochement with labour and soften brexit but split her party

4. extend article 50. in order to do so, she'll have to either offer the EU a concession: election or second ref. she'd probably roll dice on an election (corbyn surge is over, people feel sorry for her yadda yadda). this could - in theory - get her better parliamentary arithmetic though it's most likely this would be a 'kick the bastards out' not a 'steady as we go' election

anything else ?

She could unilaterally cancel A50.

I mean, she won't, but she could.

someone explain to my why all the hyperventilating about 1) just cancelling brexit entirely or 2) having a second referendum?

racists

plus democracy

a potent combo

genuine lol there

The commenters on conhome are obviously nutters, but they're also the backbone of the party, and they'd take Corbyn over a vote that would be seen to legitimise the WA in a heartbeat. And they don't have to vote for him, just refuse to take part in a campaign that will make 2017's look like a well-oiled machine.

Gammy Wilson there, angrily haranguing Channel 4 News for bring facts to his bullshit party. https://t.co/8mRgOeSV7Q

— LAD (@LADFLEG) January 15, 2019

Enjoyed this.

Andrew, you’ll never know how guilty I feel for introducing CH comments here!

Ah no I follow a writer on there because he wrote well about the last election's shambles! Though now I've started going on there every day - I've got a problem.

i’m not sure about this (not sure about anything tbf). doing that wd drive a schism through the conservative party and crucially alienate members. which she won’t do. first rule of tory party. i don’t think we’ll see that sort of rapprochement and no deal still feels v much on the table.

Realness probably:

1. May goes, within her own part or to a new gov. Negotiations probably restart.

2. No deal

Her own party god I hate phones

I mean she could pursue option 2 above and come back to the commons with a ‘revised’ deal (ie the same deal, the only deal which accords to her red lines). by which point we’d probably be staring down the barrel of a no deal exit and she may peal off some more labour rebels and get some tory rebels back on side. but a turnaround big enough to reverse 230 ?

the real opposition

Anna Soubry tells C4News she is “quite shocked” by scale of defeat and will support the Government in vote of confidence tomorrow.

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) January 15, 2019

I find it more likely that 7 Tories will realise that she will ride this down to the wire, and sign up to one of the weekly votes of no confidence.

I feel like the 50-ish surprise rejecters must be nominally "Tory Remainers" - can't decide what this might mean going forward yet tho

If a motion to extend Article 50 is tabled, does it have the Parliamentary numbers to pass? Depending on how close we are to the cliff I think it does.

If Labour follows the conference motion and backs a second referendum, does THAT have the Parliamentary numbers (taking into account Hoey etc)?

labour are just going to keep tabling VONCs I think, rather than back referendum II

Can they do more than one? I mean even if they can that would become laughable extremely quickly.

Yes. Thatcher took three to topple Callaghan.

Laughable but surely Labour can defend the stance that they’re under no obligation to bail out the government and avoid providing the necessary votes for passage for anything they don’t want.

I thought there was a time elapse limit on VONCs?

Only on the internal Tory party ones which would call a leadership contest, I think.

i don't think they can table more than one a day but i'm not sure there's a limit otherwise (except tactical, strategic, bercow's patience etc)

it's the leadership VONC that are allowed once a year I think.

tory leadership vonc

Put a vonc on it.

that shd be corb's tactic

lol