2020 Democratic presidential primary

we were bored New Year's Day, eh

I am reading Rebecca Solnit's fb where someone is talking about schoolmarm/Warren comments. Ha! "I don't believe in the death penalty, except for that remark. As we're governed by a quivering pile of putrescent lard."

...let's concern-troll the hell out of Warren by pretending that we're just worried about OTHER PEOPLE being raging misogynists subjecting another woman candidate to inane criteria, insults, dismissals and condemnations we would never try out on a man!

Otm

I still laugh at Kamala Harris lacking "executive skills" or whatever that puerile shit was.

If Sanders, Warren or Gillibrand get the nomination, it'll be fun to watch conservative "never Trumpers" squirm and prevaricate in their endorsements.

How many of them supported hillary? I remember them prevaricating then, saying they’d vote for mcmuffin or whatever.

fwiw warren was the biggest "underperformer" in the midterms among incumbents, according to 538

Warren is the first big name for 2020, but I find her underperformance as an incumbent in 2018 really worrisome. If you're losing support among your own constituency how can you win the country? https://t.co/SkvUVX7Iel pic.twitter.com/Dux7ZfeBKU

— Sarah E. Frostenson (@sfrostenson) January 2, 2019

(i'm just highlighting the chart, not frostenson's commentary (which makes some sense, but i'm pretty sure there are lots of examples of politicians doing well on a national scale while simultaneously losing ground among their own constituency. that scenario could be caused by the almighty triangulation strategy, for example)

She did not really lose ground, though. She won by 8 points in 2012, and 24 points in 2018.

24 points is also exactly the margin Ed Markey won with in 2014. I don't really get that chart.

"I still laugh at Kamala Harris lacking "executive skills" or whatever that puerile shit was."

I was just relaying what someone who had to work with her office when she was DA claimed (he works in DNA testing).

Yeah, I wasn't blaming you, I remember it was from a dude that had worked for her. You can tell him his criticism was inane.

Oh correction, he worked with her office.

xpost frederik

She underperformed 538’s “expected margin” for her in 2018, which was calculated individually for each candidate and takes into account all sorts of things that i can’t easily copy and paste using my phone right now

She did not really lose ground, though. She won by 8 points in 2012, and 24 points in 2018.

― Frederik B, Wednesday, January 2, 2019 10:02 AM (forty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

24 points is also exactly the margin Ed Markey won with in 2014. I don't really get that chart.

― Frederik B, Wednesday, January 2, 2019 10:05 AM (thirty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the margins are considered in the context of the political climate. having the same margin in a year that is much better for democrats overall means something different than a neutral year or smaller lean dem year

Baseball guys get this stuff.

it’s a park adjustment haha

I just invented a new word: sabersplaining.

I guess there is both a park and league adjustment

It’s not a prediction, it’s a projection

If she’s the best candidate she should be supported anyway.

Even if people hate her for dumb reasons.

She underperformed according to the 538 chart, but that doesn't show that she 'lost ground'. It was her first year as an incumbent, coming after Ted Kennedy who routinely won by 40+ points. So we can't say if she's less popular than she used to be.

there was a CNN piece this morning on Warren vs Klobuchar and Brown and it came to similar conclusions re: her electability.

I’m a member of an Indian tribe in good standing and I have the card to prove it, though by blood I’m about 1/16th and I look just as white as Warren. I think this controversy is completely silly.

It's more of an liability that Romney admits to being 100% mormon.

maybe Trump is so unpopular that it won't matter, but I think personality does typically play a role in presidential elections. I've got to think it's a not-insignificant reason not only for why we didn't have a President Hillary Clinton but also why we didn't have Presidents Gore, Kerry, Rubio, Romney, Cruz, Dole, etc.

Beto needs to stay in TX and put his energy there. We do not need a boarding school, ivy league, white son of a judge with a DUI on his record as our next president. I can't even imagine that being me and thinking it was my time to run.

Pres candidates from Massachusetts have a bad record since JFK, and Warren will fit right into the usual "out of touch northeasterner" line. I think this will plague her enough during the primaries that she won't be the candidate.

Beto has pivot written all over him

wow terrible tattoo idea

just looking to confirm beto is white male again juat checking thanks

i know it's a trigg4r for U

yep need a warning on thread pls ty

.@NYGovCuomo, asked about Elizabeth Warren: “Of all the names that are out there, I think Joe Biden has the best case. I think Joe Biden has the best case because he brings the most of the secret ingredient you need to win for a Democrat, which is credibility.”

— Jimmy Vielkind (@JimmyVielkind) January 2, 2019

more points for warren

You hear “experience” a lot (which is open ended to a degree and usually requires some elaboration) but “credibility” is in the territory of the uselessly vague.

I think it's supposed to indicate some combo of "not a pathological liar"/trustworthy

but yeah wgaf

How is Bernie in the tradition of Debs?

― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Monday, December 31, 2018 8:50 PM (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm a couple days late on this but yeah imo max is wrong there, bernie is *not* in the tradition of debs and it's imo p disingenuous to say that he is -- i tend to think max is better/smarter than that so it's a disappointing thread for me

the fact is Bernie and Warren are v close on the issues, the only difference is Bernie is comfortable with the socialist label and Warren is not. Neither are really socialists in any policy-oriented sense of the term - Bernie has (as I pointed out) never advocated afaik for a state-run economy or similar capitalism-dismantling moves

also Bernie occasionally criticizes Israel

ok sure

Andy Cuomo: I Like Empty-Shell Old Democrats Best

more dovish on foreign policy in general AFAIR

What has Warren done that wasn't dovish?

shot a hunting buddy in the face iirc

she voted to increase the military budget in 2017.

Criticizing the president.

I haven't gotten to read this yet but since we're on the subject

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-11-29/foreign-policy-all