one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Hello, @BBC6Music I'd like to request "True Colours" by Cyndi Lauper.

— claire niven (@claireygirly) December 30, 2018

Happy New Year!

wow

extremely here for this tweet

Fine work

good piece
https://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-progressive-vote.html?spref=tw

he makes a good point in the comments too: people go on about how labour's polling is terrible when you look at who they are up against (the most incompetent tory government in ages etc etc.)

but actually - given the government's total lack of bandwidth to process anything but brexit, this means that one issue dominates the debate. in that context, it is pretty remarkable that labour have managed to sustain their figures at the level they have. however - there are clearly plenty of voters who are giving may the benefit of the doubt until march only. the tories will NOT maintain their current polling levels once the focus moves back to wages & housing

Banging piece

The polls just represent the prevalent polarisation since the last GE and it's hard to see what would change that, including if the Tories preside over a 2008-type crash reported or processed in the same way as the one Labour did and the austerity lie being further exposed. Don't think that would be enough on its own to win back lost Labour votes from 10+ years ago (without also a signficant shift on Brexit and Corbyn being replaced).

The one thing that's virtually guaranteed this year is either a big political or economic shock and that isn't really being priced in to the way people are treating polling data.

Depends on the type of shock and how that affects the UK specifically too - very hard to price in.

We've been due some kind of shock for a while but the EU and much of the world have been good at managing decline since Greece. The Tories have been very incompetent but they keep surviving. This year might be more of the same, especially if May manages to get her deal through.

Chris Grayling on Seaborne Ferries: "there is nothing wrong with backing a new British company".

that's surely the cue for Seaborne to go into liquidation taking taxpayers money down with the non-existent ship

luv2back new british companies with millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money via a no-bid contract

brb going to form a new British company and ask the gov for a few mil

ooh, never realised there's two ells in Halliburton

ell 1 cash ell 2 cash

A sentence that somehow combines all the worst things in the entire English language pic.twitter.com/6zrDaF7r36

— Sathnam Sanghera (@Sathnam) January 2, 2019

in just a mere paragraph it evokes the whole spectrum of the golf nazi shadow world.

well not a paragraph, it looked like one on my phone.

Chris Grayling on Seaborne Ferries: "there is nothing wrong with backing a new British company".

The least shifty interpretation of the whole thing is that there were no actually existing British companies capable of running a route and they didn’t want headlines about the whole £103m going to French and Danish ones.

Honours for fucking hero, Nigel Farage, at long last.

This is pretty good on Lab strategy - definitely some gaps ("Then with a general election in full swing") but its a reasonable read on the immediate plans.

https://medium.com/@Bickerrecord/parliamentary-vs-public-process-a-defence-of-corbyns-strategy-cd12ed072d31

see the astroturfers are at it again with their push polls

awkward from the same poll

From the same YouGov poll ... pic.twitter.com/Qe0nT11F5V

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) January 2, 2019

Renewal of train season tickets today is probably good for another couple of percentage points in Labour’s favour.

There's a fatal flaw in that medium article - it says that exploiting No Deal paranoia will be a central manifesto point to gain the election win, however, the No Confidence vote for the GE is won by getting an amendment passed that removes the possibility of No Deal.

Unless, of course, the author is suggesting Labour run on a premise that they don't feel they're bound by their own amendment from two weeks previously.

Suzanne Moore has been complaining that it's all too ‘80s for words. That’s Suzanne Moore, with her huge hair and patent stilettos, criticising something for being an ‘80s relic, OK?

There's a fatal flaw in that medium article - it says that exploiting No Deal paranoia will be a central manifesto point to gain the election win, however, the No Confidence vote for the GE is won by getting an amendment passed that removes the possibility of No Deal.

I just assumed this was a timing thing - the may parliament can't legislate for no deal post-amendment; this levers out a no confidence vote; may parliament dissolves; no deal now re-possible as it is the default post-29/03 position; no deal panic rises; corbyn government; here we... here we... hwfg

That's my second paragraph. "I know we said we wanted this a fortnight ago but it was just a tactical bit of politicking and we don't really. You can trust us next time."

Wait, I see, Labour propose the amendment knowing that it passing will mean the bill never gets passed explicitly because of the threat of the amendment coming into force so it doesn't become law and therefore apply to them. Got it.

On 2 Jan, the media will be awash with stories about outrage over train ticket prices going up. Yet 39% of Brits haven't set foot on a train in 12 months, and most made fewer than 2 train journeys last year. Just 5% made more than 50 journeys https://t.co/FjIiaeD86d pic.twitter.com/sA7G4rf4DQ

— YouGov (@YouGov) December 31, 2018

YouGov as neutral as ever in interpreting their data.

also clearly haven’t heard of suppressed demand as a concept.

At times it's about as non-partisan as you'd expect from an organisation set up by that Zahawi twat. But that is opening them up for ridicule, a total self own.

why can't we just put a fucking fist clean through the face of these cunts

Medium post reads a bit like fanfic tbh. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Labour will pass an amendment along those lines but we don't know what they're going to do and everything after that is pure conjecture.

Except that No Deal isn't something you can necessarily legislate to prevent - Parliament has to come up with an alternative and vote it through, and it seems unlikely they'll agree on any alternative, so No Deal happens anyway. They might panic so much that the vote through whatever proposal happens to be on the table at the 11th hour, I suppose.

But I can't foresee the set of circumstances that would need to take place for the government to lose a No Confidence vote, it just wouldn't happen without the aid of the DUP or some magical Tory rebels, and that isn't going to happen. So no Corbyn government before March, just forget it, it isn't going to happen.

If that Labour amendment DOES happen and DOES pass is that May can use it as an excuse to claim her hand was forced and extend Article 50 to avoid the No Deal scenario, although it's unclear whether that would require Parliamentary approval or not.

Yeah, I would think that such an amendment might strengthen the support for the May Deal on the basis that Brexit Means (at least some kind of) Brexit and the ERG etc can pivot to influencing the Future Relationship.

this seemed a more measured take on the likely route to march and beyond (from my new favourite blog)
https://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.com/2018/12/indecision.html

Starting to think that Grayling is going to be the next sacrifical lamb here, he's managed to survive a bewilderingly long time but a double whammy of rail fares and fake shipping company is going to attract a fuck of a lot of mudslinging from all sides.

The government can't simultaneously claim that it's taking all necessary preparations for No Deal and afford to keep this obvious incompetent in one of the key positions. Then again he's managed to survive pretty much else and May's not exactly overburdened with loyalists right now.

He's always been spectacularly dim - possibly the dimmest since Priti Patel left - but he's one of May's few supporters so I imagine that's why he's still there.

good piece
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/there-s-something-everyone-has-missed-about-polls-and-people-s-vote

They might panic so much that the vote through whatever proposal happens to be on the table at the 11th hour, I suppose.

The circumstances are so unique that trying to predict anything is a non-starter (at the same time its worth trying to make educated guesses) but I think we could discount some of what couldn't happen (no general election before March, yes) but what that blog is counting on is just this sort of panic to carry over a proposal to stop whatever the worst is that week.

No Deal isn't something you can through

Can't be repeated enough, the prospect of clownishly tumbling over that cliff still feels vnecessarily legislate to prevent - Parliament has to come up with an alternative and vote itery possible, and it may well take reluctance on the EU side to prevent it

Sorry for bad cut and paste but you get the drift - "no majority for No Deal" is v much beside the point

labour right would presumably kamikaze their careers (playing the "country before party" card in support of the may deal) before they let that happen

if the tory left don't kamikaze themselves by no confidencing TM first

I don't think anybody can tell whether a last gasp "May's deal rather than nothing" vote would even fuck individual MPs' careers, but I can still totally see not enough people blinking until it's too late

There will also be a drumbeat of "this is what the people voted for - this will be managed - don't listen to Project Fear II" - if this were picked up by a few newspapers it could do a lot of damage.

If I can just nick one of the paddle boats from East Park lake I can apply for new ferry service millions

I’d like to share one of my all-time favourite Chris Grayling anecdotes. Remember the Leadsom march in 2016 Tory leadership contest? A motley crew of slightly cringing MPs & cheery activists chanting: “What do we want? Leadsom for Leader! When do we want it? Now!” 1/2

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) January 2, 2019

I'd forgotten he was the campaign manager - he'll do fine - we're all gonna die, though.

In other news, Sajid Javid is still a cunt.

He's that much of a confused racist/Uncle Tom, he'll end up deporting himself at some point.

labour right... (playing the "country before party" card in support of the may deal)

Unless I'm missing something this is May's calculation, no? That they'll be the ones to blink first. And is that such a misguided calculation?

Machiavelli winning out over Baldrick there.

I'm not saying they will! I'm saying if you had to bet on a particular group of people to blink, where would you look first?