one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Maybe I wasn't making a point about the incessant hysterical attacks on Corbyn made by the British media being largely ineffective, maybe I was making a point about how he's perfect, somebody help me out here.

It feels like a decent party machine has been built around him now to compensate for his shortcomings, like every decision is made by committee right now and public pronouncements are weighed up in advance. As opposed to two or three years ago when he would just say whatever he felt like at the time.

TBH I think hysterical attacks from the press actually strengthen him at this stage. The antisemitism row feels like the only thing that's dented his popularity because there was actually some substance to it and Jim if you look back the thread is full of posts talking about how badly he was dealing with it.

OTM on the anti-Semitism row, though the GBP don't really care about it anyway, regrettable as that may be.

should just wear a tshirt that says stupid woman on it while denying he ever said stupid woman idk why this is so hard

I'm Opposing Stupid →

I'm no psephologist - I can barely spell it - but I suspect one of the problems the Labour Party has is Liberal Democrat voters who have gone over to the Tories and stayed there because the Lib Dems are in even worse shape than the Tories.

Labour in itself is much more popular than Corbyn right now but that's in part down to its positioning under his leadership

this seems irrefutable yeah

also now that I've heard the "stupid people" explanation I can't unsee/hear it when I watch the footage. it's the blue/gold dress all over again!

he's literally never ahead of theresa may as preferred prime minister in any opinion poll ever.

This is mostly true with one important exception; he overtook May after the GE last year. The press were bashing him as much as ever but the difference was people seeing him on tv more plus May’s own inept performance. When Yougov polled Labour voters for why they voted Labour, he was the third highest reason, and that was voters not members.

The antisemitism row feels like the only thing that's dented his popularity because there was actually some substance to it

This is true and I agree that there is a case to answer. I’d also add his response to the Skripals - that was hugely unpopular and the polling took a pretty sustained hit after that.

It is 100% true that he makes unforced errors. It is also true that the press focus on a lot of ludricrous shit as much as the stuff that actually matters - this is part of the reason his support is so defensive and entrenched. I definitely rolled my eyes when I read the Guardian’s political editor tweet this yesterday:

Hmmm: but this doesn't look so great (God what a waste of everybody's bloody time) ...https://t.co/sT31j5ds5o

— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) December 19, 2018

Do I need to tell you that she tweeted far more about this than impending no- deal disaster or the immigration white paper yesterday?

he was pretty effective when it mattered: during the 2017 GE... where he was fighting on a very hostile electoral map left for him by miliband-15 (eg labour needed a 1997 level swing to get a one seat majority in 2017.) the 2017 electoral map is now notably marked by tory and SNP vulnerabilities

If Corbyn persists in claiming he didn't say 'stupid woman', when we can all see he did, why should we believe anything else he says ever again?

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) December 19, 2018

we would do well to heed rob lowe, Οὖτις & piers, the canaries in the coal mine!! even if this blunder doesn't fell the corbyn brand I'm sure we won't have to wait long for the next exciting piece of content from our heroic media for the gaffe-prone sexagenarian to stumble over again soon!!

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am, patiently waiting for a witty, kind, savvy centrist party to restore some sanity with you

If I Said It

Piers "City Slickers" Morgan there talking about truthiness

we need Nicola sturgeon to save us, because apparently she's the greatest politician in the world (despite haemorrhaging 21 seats in '17).

im not a supporter of the labour party, am a fundamentalist scottish nationalist, and don't live in the UK, so who i would prefer is not really very important.

So why are you huffing and puffing so much? There is nothing at stake for you here. Some ppl were reacting at an absurd moment and coverage where nothing will ultimately change - just some noise before xmas. No need to make stuff up about how Corbyn is behind May in some poll or other and isn't popular.

He would've resigned had the GE gone badly - he didn't. Accept it and go with god!

"Stupid woman" just seemed nvmic to me but when I first saw the clip it seemed like he did. Watched it a few more times and started to look like something else (surely not "people" - no-one would say that, was hoping this was because it was actually something directly offensive) but that's probably just personal bias kicking in.

The antisemitism issue just seemed to drop off a cliff on the first day of Autumn - like there was some widely agreed on decision to just park it there across even the most anti-JC media organs.

He should've called her a "racist woman" he'd be able to defend that!

the worst thing about this nonsense dominating the news cycle yesterday was hearing that clip of May's shrill pantomime braying about 8 times. But good reminder to carrying on blanking PMQ's for the sake of my own mental health.

MPs to start covering their mouths like sportsfolk when not on the mic

Do I need to tell you that she tweeted far more about this than impending no- deal disaster or the immigration white paper yesterday?

Someone on twitter was saying "oh it really distracts from actual damage the Tories are doing" and its like we were saying when ogmor posted the Housing minister's comments yesterday morning. Its not like the press are interested in holding the government to account.

The only thing that has held the Tories back is Corbyn and the left-wing of the Labour Party, and its re-orientation of it to a party that people could vote for, which ultimately denied May her majority - which is why her deal is in the bin right now.

I’ve complained before about the absolute incompeteufnde of the media holding the government to account, so I’m not going to repeat myself* (when has this stopped me before though?)

But I was thinking yesterday how much of the media pretends not to understand really basic shit, or pretends they’re all Anna Politkovskayas in waiting under a Corbyn government, and how just completely inept and awful most of them are. Honestly, you could replace most politics journalists in national papers with a stenography service and nobody would notice. It reminds me of SV saying “people always have an excuse not to vote Labour”. Like think back to Brown being hammered over Gillian Duffy (should’ve doubled down, Brown otm), or the ducking disgrace that was Ed Miliband and the bacon sandwich. “We hold politicians to account!” crow the media, as they give wall to wall coverage of a Jewish man eating a bacon sandwich. Fuck off.

Yes everyone was otm yesterday re the housing stuff, chalk it up to the long long list of failures. Fuck knows I’m critical support re: Corbyn - who drives me mad a lot of the time - but people can never scaremonger about food shortages and shit when the Tories are happily playing chicken with that exact outcome for their own survival.

*lol this turned out to be a lie, apologies

Shout out to autocorrect for making that post even more unreadable than usual.

I often wonder how much different the political climate would be if Brown had said "yes, I think she is a bigot"

I suspect that politicians calling a bigot a bigot are unlikely to *lose* any votes from the bigot community but otoh the politics of Labour voters are an odd melange so maybe a few

a strong character with Corbyn's politics who'll call a bigot a bigot would go down a treat. when's Queen Caroline going to sweep into Labour ffs

note to xyzzzz yes I know this is an unrealistic fantasy

does feel that corbyn is holed below the waterline a bit though, for reasons that aren't really his fault

idk though it's so hard and frustrating to think about this stuff. defending corbyn on the football forum i post to is exhausting and probably affects how i think about him negatively

maybe the smear campaigns are a sign that the establishment is frit and he should just keep doing what he's doing. it's so hard to tell

Most things you come out with are an unrealistic fantasy so I know that.

Obviously it was a joke however it would be more accurate as she isn't stupid - and of course its an ableist slur (not that the Tories would go on that angle - as I think someone on twitter said - they kill disabled people). And to look over the atlantic Trump repeatedly calling Hilary to be locked up didn't exactly kill him off did he? It just infuriates liberals but they don't matter very much.

The only thing that has held the Tories back is Corbyn and the left-wing of the Labour Party, and its re-orientation of it to a party that people could vote for, which ultimately denied May her majority - which is why her deal is in the bin right now.

Lol what? Even in the most charitable interpretation this isn't true. Above all the thing that's held the Tories back is *May herself* - the toxic rhetoric around immigration and "citizens of nowhere" that put off virtually every socially liberal voter in the country, the Hard Brexit she was promising that was the last thing a big chunk of the electorate wanted, the utter turd of a policy that was her social care reforms, the manifesto that had nothing in it that spoke to people's hopes rather than their fears, the ducking of debates, the awkwardness in front of a camera. The worst campaign I've ever seen and that includes Zac Goldsmith in London.

The country in general may not love Corbyn but next to THAT all he had to do was relax and behave like a normal empathetic human being and make noises along the lines that things don't actually have to get worse and worse for eternity. Focusing on the everyday, promising to get rid of hospital parking charges when the opponent is promising to sell your house from under you to pay for your care in old age. That's the stuff that works.

It also helped that May focused so heavily on Brexit that it allowed Labour to make the running and set the agenda on virtually everything else. And of course that Labour manifesto would never have happened under Andy Burnham. It doesn't mean that people wouldn't have voted for them though, May's offer was so toxic to young people, children of immigrants, and the socially liberal that Labour would have gained votes regardless.

It might have been different under Liz Kendall or Yvette Cooper, both of whom would have tried to out-toxify May. Even a party led by a wacky religious homophobe might have benefited from that.

I forgot about the free vote on foxhunting, that was another stink bomb dropped in the middle of the campaign. Corbyn might not be so lucky with his opponent next time round.

There are these others factors - May's taking it for granted and not engaging the public, and their manifesto - but still Labour ran a good campaign and Corbyn didn't hold Labour back in the way that May did the Tories - sure there is more to that story but Kendall or Cooper (like Ed M) always looking like they are all things to all people - that was a huge problem for Labour - one which stopped with Corbyn.

I don't think she was explicitly promising Hard Brexit or soft Brexit - just to deliver Brexit comfortably. It meant that the ppl who are enthusiastic about the whole business (up to today) voted for her and why despite everything we are neck and neck in the polls. And its why Labour had to play the smoke and mirrors game in the last election in regards to the EU as well.

It just infuriates liberals but they don't matter very much.

This is also wrong - the last election was fought chiefly on social issues rather than economic ones and small-l liberals by and large voted Labour for all the reasons above. Labour also did much, much better among women.

I don't think this will be remembered whenever the next election and I think people made up their minds ages ago whether or not they could vote for Corbyn, but it does add to an overall picture of a blunderer. Thankfully for him May is ten times the blunderer and her mistakes are going to hit people where it really hurts over the coming months/years.

What's her slogan going to be next time?

Was: Strong and Stable

Now: Broad and Adaptable

That comment was a response to more of yesterday's stuff - as in if he did a Trump-like comment (but from the left) - just musing on how that would've played wiht the public - nothing to do with the election.

But anyway Matt if you believe May would have lost her majority against Cooper or Kendall (lol) go ahead and think that.

There might never be as much hubris from a majority governing party/leader and their team again when it comes to a snap election but Corbyn and the shadow Cabinet will always deserve at least half the credit for the outcome imo.

But yes he/they will not be so 'lucky' next time because of the circumstances that triggered the GE and its outcome.

We don't know under what conditions the next GE will be fought in. Will Brexit happen? What is the country going to be like? Who will be the new Tory (or Labour) leaders? We just don't know..

don't worry, there's no need to pick between holding the govt to account and having a legitimate debate about the nature and implications of what corbyn muttered under his breath: any imbalance in the discourse will quickly be corrected by the scorching hot content provided by our tireless media. providing bottom feeders w/ plenty of content they can have their say on in no way prevents us from having a perfectly functional democracy

Strange experience but not unique. Invited by @BBCr4today to speak on immigration policy, yet only 1 question, repeated 3 times. Main questions simply a string of attacks on Jeremy Corbyn. This is not public service broadcasting.

— Diane Abbott (@HackneyAbbott) December 20, 2018

having some dynamic young gun like Hunt who turns up to live tv debates might be a game-changer for the tories.

What's her slogan going to be next time?

Was: Strong and Stable

Now: Broad and Adaptable

Stupid and Woman

But anyway Matt if you believe May would have lost her majority against Cooper or Kendall (lol) go ahead and think that

Read my post again, it's obvious I don't think that.

One area where the press treatment of Corbyn played to his favour was that he looked like such an obvious lame duck that as Nashwan says it led to extreme overconfidence, hubris and complacency from the Tories. They thought they had to just turn up and be gifted with a landslide. The fact that were enacting policies that were the last thing half the electorate wanted barely even occurred to them and in fact they ramped up the nastiness.

This all goes to show that Cameron wasn't wrong to try and remove that stuff from the party's public face. If he'd approached it properly, rather than just trying to airbrush it out of sight, the country might be in a very different position now, but I suppose you can't really purge all your backbenchers at once.

Surprising but good news RIGHT COMMUTERS?

http://londonist.com/london/transport/london-s-train-stations-toilets-free-to-use-from-1-april-2019

xp = yup sorry

But anyway Matt if you believe May would have lost her majority against Cooper or Kendall (lol) go ahead and think that.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 20 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

haha sorry misread.

I guess my one-liner makes it look like I focused on Corbyn too much when its not even that much about the party leaders. In the past I have taken those things (campaigns, manifestos, etc.) into account though.

the toxic rhetoric around immigration and "citizens of nowhere" that put off virtually every socially liberal voter in the country

I mean you say this but Cameron won a majority in 2015 appealing to the country’s worst instincts. Plenty of those “socially liberal” people voted for him, Cameron’s numbers with young people and women were a whole lot better than May’s. Yvette Cooper stans still take to twitter/the airwaves/their newspaper columns every single day
arguing that her fight-the-Tories-on-immigration-from-the-right approach would have Labour 20 points ahead.

As for the question of being lucky with Tory policy, half the party is agitating for food shortages, troops on the street and no fresh insulin. Sort of pales in comparison to the dementia tax. They can’t go left because they’ll drop their UKIP voters, and they can’t go much further right. So what new ground are they going to fight the next election on?

Socially liberal is only half the story, people who are cool with gay rights but think the poor should be tolerated and immigrants controlled are responsible for voting for this mess in the first place.

I suppose the point I'm making is that things are very messy, contradictory, chaotic and constantly changing and I'd be wary of stamping any one narrative on the last election, let alone using that as the basis to fight the next one. You can't take it as *just* an endorsement of the Labour leadership or a rejection of May, or as Remain v Leave mk2 or anything like that. But the two manifestos did make a massive difference, I think.

At the end of the day millions *more* people voted for May than voted for Cameron, probably as a result of Brexit, it's just the distribution was wrong for them. But the Tories fought the 2015 election focused on Labour's supposed weakness on the economy, in 2017 they didn't and made it easier for Labour. The difference is that now the Tories don't appear to care about the economy at all, they'll happily destroy it based on a spurious interpretation of Will Of The People. That's a massive open flank for Labour to exploit.

The other thing that helped swing the 2015 election, certainly as far as poll responses go, was the bogeyman of a weak Miliband government under the SNP's thumb. Obviously the Tories can't try THAT one again.

Of course it’s not an unquestioning endorsement and you are as you usually are very much otm. But I don’t agree with the message that labour benefited only from Tory fuckups. Their policies were attractive to people and they didn’t engage in negative campaigning; they made a real offer to the electorate. The bread and butter issues did cut through and I heard and saw this with my own eyes. Policies do matter; people did warm to Corbyn.

Millions more did vote for TM but they were UKIP voters returning for the most part. This is part of the reason their voter profile was so much older in 2017.

Ia re the economy which is what I said upthread somewhere; can’t bleat about labour being weak on the economy when you’ve got half your MPs clamouring for no deal!