2020 Democratic presidential primary

Yeah and none of those are social issues either, realt. They’re civil rights and human rights issues.

also you presumably want to avoid a repeat of the circumstances that helped to set the groundwork for Trump to get elected, incl electing mealy-mouthed centrists. believe it or not there can always be someone worse

not to get all Nate Silver on this but the groundwork that led to Trump's election is something that I don't think you can replicate easily. you had 1) the most unpopular Dem candidate ever, 2) an "October surprise" that did markedly influence the election, 3) active interference by foreign entities, and 4) a bad campaigning strategy leading the Dems to narrowly lose Midwestern states and therefore the EC despite winning the popular vote by 3 million. it's true the Dems did a lot of things wrong in 2016 but they also got pretty unlucky

active interference by foreign entities

fwiw Nate Silver himself just said he wouldn't have put Russian meme warfare in the top 100 causes for Trump winning

Right, but they did more than meme warfare.

when did Silver say that because that news gets worse every day

anyway voted Harris from the list above. I'd be into a Harris/O'Rourke ticket or vice versa, ditto either of them with Gillebrand.

Yesterday. Also from that round, his one-tweet summation of 2016 is fine by me.

2016 in one tweet: Hard for a party to win 3 in a row; Clinton unpopular for many reasons, including MSM fixation on email; Trump also unpopular, but GOP voters were loyal and racially-tinged populism worked among non-college whites, who are overrepresented in Electoral College.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 18, 2018

That's such a dumb statement from Silver, he knows better. Even discounting his hyperbole, I bet he couldn't get close to naming 100 other factors first before getting to Russian interference. When we're talking about a shift of less than 100,000 votes in a nation of 300 million, every little bit counted.

I'm also curious how the media is gonna cover it this time, if they're really gonna fall headfirst into weeks of "did Hillary and Obama REALLY form ISIS??" coverage or if they're gonna stop giving Trump the exact headline he wants time after time. they do seem to be learning.....slowly....

i like nate silver but lol "racially-tinged"

i think the proper way to not say racist is "racially-charged"

I've heard numerous people debate how to counter Trump in the media and elsewhere, and it's harder than it seems. You ignore something stupid or inflammatory he says and *that* becomes the story. You counter what he says and you use up valuable space and time on his bullshit, and he'll just move on anyway. The best strategy I've heard offered is to acknowledge his bullshit, and then just table it. "Did Hillary and Obama form ISIS? It's a provocative theory. But in the meantime, here are some issues we need to address right now, like health care, or taxes ... " Something like that.

I thought the way Russian interference worked was that it helped intensify things like racist populism and MSM fixation on email

Yeah, absolutely.

They need to focus on the fact that he is a criminal not a businessman. If people believe in the power of the market to reward good actors who provide value to others, Trump represents the opposite of that. He’s not just an “economic elite”—which would be bad enough—he’s been a consistently bad actor his entire life. If all businesses worked like the Trump organization, our society would collapse.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/is-fraud-part-of-the-trump-organizations-business-model

yea I hate to say it but focusing on racism or sexism isn't gonna do much but get us into Yet Another Long Discussion about "political correctness" or feminism or "How is it racist to enforce the law?" like, if you don't believe he's a bigot by NOW, you aren't gonna ever, period. on the other hand it absolutely is provable that the man is a fraud, a criminal, and a terrible businessman, and tbh I really wish Dems had pounded that more in 2016

They need to focus on the fact that he is a criminal not a businessman. If people believe in the power of the market to reward good actors who provide value to others, Trump represents the opposite of that. He’s not just an “economic elite”—which would be bad enough—he’s been a consistently bad actor his entire life. If all businesses worked like the Trump organization, our society would collapse.

And what effect will this emphasis have on the 30+ percent of voters who support him?

They. Don't. Care.

Xp The criminality and the bigotry go hand in hand imo. He is a predator and an exploiter.

xpost Lock them up?

The criminality and the bigotry go hand in hand imo.

Otm, and this is probably why they don't care about the criminality...

Treeship, who are you trying to persuade? No one on ILX or the suburbs, presumably.

Alfred otm. And if you do successfully run the gauntlet of convincing trump supporters that he is a criminal, a fraud, a sexist, a racist, and the dumbest person in the United States, you must face the most challenging test of all: what about abortion

Also, they have said they voted for a criminal, a fraud, a sexist, and a racist, and they think he's the smartest person in DC.

I think it’s good to continually remind people of all of these things, but not as some part of strategy to change the hearts and minds of his supporters. That ship has sailed

One universally recognized indicator of a very smart person is when they repeatedly bring up where they went to grad school (where they did “very well” and talk about IQ tests

number umpty-six, come on down

https://news.yahoo.com/colorado-senator-michael-bennet-says-considering-run-democratic-presidential-nomination-100013444.html

I don’t like the myth of Trump’s invilnerability. Why is his support among rural whites considered a fact of nature?

cuz they like him and they never change and never will

xp please stop, you do this constantly. they hate you and want us all to die. there's no sense in even trying, increasing voter turnout in other demographics is the way forward.

i.e. j. otm

xp please stop, you do this constantly. they hate you and want us all to die. there's no sense in even trying, increasing voter turnout in other demographics is the way forward.

can we just auto-amend this to every hand-wringy treeship post plz

some of them *did* vote for Obama tho

I wasn’t even wringing my hands I was typing with them.

some of them *did* vote for Obama tho

this is actually a really small portion of the electorate afaict, and I doubt any of those people that voted for Obama and then Trump are still hardcore Trump supporters. Or maybe they just reaaaaaally hated John McCain a lot and always did.

at any rate they aren't worth factoring in.

Interesting

like, saying that certain states went for Obama both times and then flipped to Trump in '16 is obviously true - but for the most part that isn't because voters switched parties en masse, it's primarily because of changes in turnout (related to demographics, voter suppression efforts, Russian interference, Clinton campaign fuckups, etc.)

This post and its comments address the last few posts.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/just-how-many-obama-2012-trump-2016-voters-were-there/

so many caveats

some of them *did* vote for Obama tho

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, December 19, 2018 11:36 AM (thirty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

“some” of “them” voted for clinton too. this conversation is tiring

I wasn’t even wringing my hands I was typing with them.

― Trϵϵship, Wednesday, December 19, 2018 10:37 AM (forty-four minutes ago)

You're wringing everybody else's hands.

well they probly went to the wedding xp

when did Silver say that because that news gets worse every day

it stays exactly the same every day

A bit lol about the term 'Top Democratic Women Of Color', but these numbers are not good for neither Warren nor Sanders.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryancbrooks/kamala-harris-2020-president-black-women-survey

She the People — a national network of influential women of color in politics — just completed a national straw poll of 264 women of color leaders, campaign workers and managers, political strategists, organizers, and activists ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Those surveyed included campaign donors (48.5%), current and former elected officials (10.6%), campaign managers (5.7%), electoral campaign strategists (8.7%), and women who run (23.1%) or work (23.5%) at politically-minded organizations.

Of the women of color surveyed, nearly 40% identify as Latinx, and nearly 50% identify as African American, over 16% identify as Asian, and over 5% as Native. Nearly 90% of respondents identified as members of the Democratic Party.

can you spot anything exceptional about this description of the sample

Those surveyed included campaign donors (48.5%), current and former elected officials (10.6%), campaign managers (5.7%), electoral campaign strategists (8.7%), and women who run (23.1%) or work (23.5%) at politically-minded organizations.

Not a survey of the party base or general public fwiw

Lol xp

They need to focus on the fact that he is a criminal not a businessman.

Hillary's campaign ads about Trump ripping off every contractor who ever worked for him were super effective, after all.

imo the only ads a Dem candidate will need to run are variations of "aren't you tired of all this fucking crap"

i think simon nailed the 'what the heck does progressive even mean' question p well but to refocus specifically on beto, here he stands pretty plainly revealed relative to the rest of the house:

https://i.imgur.com/I4Ic1H2.png

on the left side on so-called "social" issues, but the relative right side on redistributive questions

more on Beto's record

Beto O’Rourke’s spirited run for the US Senate in Texas last month has prompted powerful voices in the Democratic party establishment to tout the outgoing Texas congressman as a 2020 presidential candidate who, as the party’s standard-bearer, would offer a vision of America contrasting against that of Republicans.

However, a new analysis of congressional votes from the non-profit news organisation Capital & Main shows that even as O’Rourke represented one of the most solidly Democratic congressional districts in the United States, he has frequently voted against the majority of House Democrats in support of Republican bills and Trump administration priorities.

Capital & Main reviewed the 167 votes O’Rourke has cast in the House in opposition to the majority of his own party during his six-year tenure in Congress. Many of those votes were not progressive dissents alongside other left-leaning lawmakers, but instead votes to help pass Republican-sponsored legislation.

O’Rourke has voted for GOP bills that his fellow Democratic lawmakers said reinforced Republicans’ anti-tax ideology, chipped away at the Affordable Care Act (ACA), weakened Wall Street regulations, boosted the fossil fuel industry and bolstered Donald Trump’s immigration policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/20/beto-orourke-congressional-votes-analysis-capital-and-main