one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Andrea Jenkyns! That's who I should have said, not Andrea Leadsom. Jenkyns was on the radio saying she thought a new leader could go back to Brussels and get a better deal. It's that crew that I can't quite understand, ie what they think they can get from a new deal.

EU will nope any deal harder than May’s.

They have to give her 48 hours’ notice. meaning, she gets two days advance warning before Brady announces.

When I first heard 48 had been reached I thought it was because she postponed the vote, but does this 48h notice mean that she postponed the vote because the letters were in?

Also if she loses (I don't think she will, but the vote delay does seem to have pissed off both sides) is there anyone not completely batshit and evil and crash-out-Brexity (obv these are Tories but just 1 or 2 out of 3 perhaps?) who might stand for leadership?

The fact that no one is fronting an extension to article 50 makes me think that's exactly what will end up happening, whoever's in government.

Either that or May drags on and enough MPs are terrified of a no deal that she ends up winning her vote in the game of chicken.

its hard to tell whether the erg et al believe in any way that the deal can be improved or whether they are just eager to wreck the gaff until hard exit happens

Hell, I might have my tin-foil hat on, but I'm still sometimes finding it hard to tell if May actually thinks her deal is a good compromise that should have united both sides, or if she too has deliberately proposed a thing that neither side will go for and is letting the clock run down

mostly suspect she's just painted herself into a corner and is now too robotic to manoeuvre out of it, since I can't see a particularly compelling motive for her to want a crash-out, but Philip can get p. rich off it and she does really appear to hate foreigners, viz. "go home" vans, student visas, Windrush

then again I'm still not entirely sure it was an accident for even a hubristic lightweight like Cameron to align so many things in favour of Leave and then call a referendum & declare himself the smug but half-hearted leader of the Remain campaign after 2 years of EU-bashing, so yes, I am a paranoid nutter, I guess

When I first heard 48 had been reached I thought it was because she postponed the vote, but does this 48h notice mean that she postponed the vote because the letters were in?

Brady said on Today this morning that the 15% threshold was reached yesterday, he spoke to the PM last night, and they agreed to move as quickly as possible to get some momentum (no pun intended) into the process and put aside convention.

Tonight is the CCHQ Christmas party, which is spectacular timing.

lol

What a total waste of everyone's time. May just won't lose tonight - just 50 or so Brexit 'believers' having a moan.

Back to the same shit tomorrow.

I'm not sure, I think May winning convincingly (<<100 votes against) might force ERG etc into the "only chance to get Brexit" pile and vote for it only to restart agitation in April.

Am watching Politics Live and even the Conservatives on the panel we’re pushing back at Fanny Dinklestein’s assertions that somehow this was all Labour’s fault.

*were

Autocorrect gifted me with Fanny Dinklestein too, but I think that’s a keeper for ILX from now on.

SUBO SAYS NO

Anna Soubry tells Sky News she won’t be voting against the Prime Minister.

— Mikey Smith (@mikeysmith) December 12, 2018

It's all about the size of the win tonight I think. If it's small enough, there might be just enough of the furiously outraged losers (who will then have no route to get rid of May) to swing a no-conf in the govt.

Or it could isolate the ERG as irrelevant to the rest of us, and give May room to move the red lines for a softer Brexit. If she won’t, then things get interesting.

No Tory Remainer is going to vote against her and risk an even more Brexity PM.

oof

Betting markets give @theresa_may a 77 per cent chance of surviving. Should she fail to get this support, Boris Johnson is now the favourite to replace her as Conservative leader.
(Thanks to @GeorgeElek)https://t.co/isFJNQFgbe

— Evan Davis (@EvanHD) December 12, 2018

Anecdotally it was Remainers who pushed her over the 48 line. I suspect there wasn't a large amount of calculation in the last few — more some actual anger at the shitshow she was turning this into.

Telling the EU about pulling the bill before the MPs?

Can't decide if BoJo ending up PM is the logical conclusion of this shitshow or the opposite of a logical conclusion to this shitshow. Or both.

we left logic behind a long time ago

it might be worth giving it to him for a short while now so he can go away and leave us all alone ASAP thereafter

May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardner”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.

Tories cheer loudly.

she still got it

She’s really actually doubling down on “chaos with Corbyn”, if I’m hearing this correctly

no-one's updated her firmware to address the changing circumstances, clearly

Public numbers so far - 153 MP s have said they all back May - 33 day they will vote against

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 12, 2018

There'll be a lot of bottlers because that looks unwinnable.

Equally you could get the "fuck it, this vote's private and the result is clearly in the bag, I can safely protest vote this bullshit" thinking that led us into this sorry mess in the first place.

Vince Cable asks whether it's more welcome to hear no confidence from your own party or the Opposition.

"Obviously one of those is going to take place." comes the shit-or-get-off-the-pot answer.

The Times's Sam Coates on the radio just now saying he's heard of at least 5 Tories MPs who admit in private that they're going to vote against her despite publicly backing her.

fuck off vince cable

That Sam Coates story isn't MPs, it's "senior ministers".

For context, one member of the government told me this morning they knew of 5 senior ministers publicly backing her and planning to knife her in private https://t.co/DYOOU7BrAq

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) December 12, 2018

Jesus.

The one reason I could see her losing the vote would be if enough Tories think that there might be a GE upcoming - the rank and file absolutely hate her, and several of the local associations (which are more Brexity than the MPs) refused to pick up, let alone deliver, the leaflets that headquarters printed to distribute to voters to encourage the voters to lobby their MPs in favour of the deal - which is, you know, nuts. I thought I saw something about one of the associations suing the government over misuse of funds, but I can't easily find it.

But yeah, the local Conservatives are still pretty mad about last year's election, it will probably be complete immolation if there's another with May in charge.

Contrariwise, if she wins the Tory confidence vote then I can't see her losing the Commons one, for that reason.

I take aldo's point, but I'd suggest that under the circumstances a lot can happen quickly if it needs to (though this may just be a fairytale I'll telling myself).

There are definitely Tories (though less than their noise) that believe that No Deal is not only a glorious new dawn, but is also the only valid interpretation of the Will of the People.

Hell, I might have my tin-foil hat on, but I'm still sometimes finding it hard to tell if May actually thinks her deal is a good compromise that should have united both sides, or if she too has deliberately proposed a thing that neither side will go for and is letting the clock run down

It's as always a question of what you consider your invariants - if you accept that you're not going to haggle about the 49 billion and that the backstop must be in place (which from the EU's point of view has been the case for a year now), then this is probably the best deal - you just can't get it passed is all.

Alternatively that could be one member of the government looking to encourage voters that it isn't a lost battle by making shit up that can't be disproven. Xpost

Gove, Fox, Williamson, Mourdant + one other.

Seems credible enough.

They're the most likely.

one other = cronus, her moment to shine

Think it'll be a Thatcher rerun in that she'll win a majority, but with a sizeable number voting against her and she'll resign.

where's john sergeant in our hour of need

She will absolutely not resign if she wins, it will be one less distraction then back to the job.

here it is, the worst imaginable take on the whole situation

yr welcome

This head girl has been more Gryffindor than Ravenclaw. And now we await to see whether a Slytherin will replace her. | @daisy_wyatt

https://t.co/FnsuAGdLE2

— i newspaper (@theipaper) December 12, 2018

God I hate analogies like that. Am thankful I have no idea who or what Gryffindor et al even are.

it's all about hufflepuff for angry ilxor bizarro gazzara

READ ANOTHER BOOK

i’ll hufflepuff I’ll blow you away

HR Hufflepuff

where you go when things get ruff

im a slythering humpencrantz