one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Only people named in her speech - Corbyn and McDonnell. No surprise there.

Good moaning!

history mayne

She will win the vote comfortably, I think.

Yup

im not sure she can do anything comfortably, her internal gremlins appear to have been muddled long ago

Yes, I think she'll win moderately well (I wouldn't go as far as comfortably - maybe the 50-60 vote range).

12d chess - could she have got some allies to force a vote she knows she will win?

They would have to be particularly deluded or unobservant allies to trust her with that one.

AKA "members of the Conservative party" zing

If anyone was offering odds, i would bet she got over 200 votes.

is her plan machiavellian &c &c

If she wins the vote, is there a time frame a new no conf vote can't be called, also not by JC?

France to hold no confidence vote in government tomorrow lol.

On BBC News Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, was asked who should be the next leader. He refused to give a firm answer, but he said Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, “has a lot going for him”.

The European Research Group, which represents Tory MPs like Cash pushing for a harder Brexit, is planning its own hustings if there is a leadership contest. Steve Baker, its deputy chair, has said the Brexiters should only support one candidate and that it should be someone with cabinet experience who is not backing Theresa May’s deal. That means either Boris Johnson, David Davis, Raab or Esther McVey.

But there is no evidence that Johnson, Davis and Raab (the strongest contenders) would be willing to agree among them

yes, dominic raab, the guy who couldn't hack it as brexit secretary, should definitely be the one to see brexit through as pm, good thinking bill cash

I spent yesterday meeting Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte, President Tusk and President Juncker to address the concerns that MPs have with the backstop – and we are making progress.

You're not though.

If she wins the vote, is there a time frame a new no conf vote can't be called, also not by JC?

I think she can't be challenged by her own party again for a year. Not sure about Labour calling one.

If/when she wins a Lab no confidence has even less chance of getting through imo because the con dissenters are far more likely to fall into line and not risk losing their jobs.

Corbz' gameplan at this point, if there is one, can only be:

Watch TM lose
Hope there is no Soft Brexit candidate for leadership
Hope ERG candidate wins if there is a vote
Persuade Con europhiles/soft Brexiteers that this will lead to no deal and electoral wilderness for Cons when it all goes wrong
Comfortable no confidence vote
GE because nobody can form a winning coalition or GNU
Sufficient floating voters to switch Red to avoid hard brexit.
Lab govt

Trouble is, there's no time for that. End Jan is a stretch for picking a new Con leader itself if there's a contest. 2 weeks of trying to create coalition follows vote of no confidence. With a very limited two week hustings that would still place us in March before we had a government again.

If A50 has to be extended then someone has to ask for it and there is a not inconsiderable amount of parliamentary business, including amendments to legislation, that would need to be conducted to enact any change to the Mar A50 date. That simply can't happen if parliament is dissolved.

At this stage it's very difficult to imagine any deal that May might be able to put together getting through Parliament, regardless of whether she wins or not. I think a No Confidence vote from the Tories, with May winning it, has been in the Labour calculation all along.

I spent yesterday meeting Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte, President Tusk and President Juncker to address the concerns that MPs have with the backstop – and we are making progress.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vb5zwLbwds

cancelled meeting with irish prime minister lol

Can someone remind me what deal Leadsom et al think a different leader will be able to get from the EU because I'm lost on this point.

its hard to tell whether the erg et al believe in any way that the deal can be improved or whether they are just eager to wreck the gaff until hard exit happens

they need someone to crush the saboteurs iirc

the party of business!

Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said today that businesses are watching events at Westminster with “utter dismay”. He said:

At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country.

The utter dismay amongst businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated. Our firms are worried, investors around the world are baffled and disappointed, and markets are showing serious strain as this political saga goes on and on.

History will not be kind to those who prioritise political advantage over people’s livelihoods.

Businesses need politicians, regardless of party or views on Brexit, to understand that their high-stakes gambles have real-world consequences of the highest order.

Leadsom bad example sorry (she's still sticking by May for now?). I mean the ardent Brexiters who don't actually want to crash or with no deal. Xpost

The ERG believe either that a hard Brexit will be ok (because the EU countries won't want to give up the trade so it will continue as at present with no agreement because unicorns) or that, as Steve Baker said yesterday on Today, that the EU has already offered an FTA and the EU has already agreed that NI can be solved by a short customs treaty so those terms can just be activated.

By hard Brexit you mean a no-deal-before-March-2019 Brexit?

Yes.

Although I'm not sure that's the plan of any of them, despite what the sloganeering of those of opposing opinions might be. I think that they think it would be ok, and not a disaster, if they couldn't get a deal of the type they want (FTA and border treaty).

Never forget. They need us more than we need them.

Kirsty Blackman had an absolute shocker on PM yesterday when she was asked what options People's Vote would want on a ballot.

"Well we'd want Remain to be on it."
Yes I'd assumed that but what else?
"I suppose we could have the May deal."
And No Deal?
"We couldn't have that, no."
What about some other kind of Brexit deal?
"I don't think that would be a good idea."
What would you say to people who would accuse you of wanting such a vote to only reflect your ideas?
"These people need to accept that they're wrong and their ideas are bad ones."

Does her one-year lock-in clause persist beyond the dissolution of parliament?

Because a near-ideal Labour situation here is May wins the no-conf in her; the govt subsequently loses a no-conf in it, and we have a GE with her as Tory leader.

oh what the fuck is this now

BREAKING: Former Brexit secretaries Dominic Raab and David Davis have teamed up with DUP leader Arlene Foster to launch a campaign for a "Better Deal" for Brexit. 1/

— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) December 12, 2018

In theory, that could happen. xpost

Oh, she could resign, of course.

so they're going to negotiate a better deal with... who exactly? the eu have no interest in renegotiation or incentive to renegotiate ffs xxp

Back to France for a minute, Moscovici has apparently said (let Parisien reporting) France exceeding the 3% GDP budget limit to will be ok if it solves the yellow vest problem specifically because it's France and not any other country. That'll please Italy.

It's important here because EU weakness, or inconsistency of opinion or treatment, feeds the uncertainty here and unicorn hunting.

It's worth pointing out that all other plans except withdraw A50 (which nobody is fronting) and the May Deal have the protagonists going back and negotiating a better deal with the EU.

They're all as fucking delusional as each other.

what a time to be alive

Andrea Jenkyns! That's who I should have said, not Andrea Leadsom. Jenkyns was on the radio saying she thought a new leader could go back to Brussels and get a better deal. It's that crew that I can't quite understand, ie what they think they can get from a new deal.

EU will nope any deal harder than May’s.

They have to give her 48 hours’ notice. meaning, she gets two days advance warning before Brady announces.

When I first heard 48 had been reached I thought it was because she postponed the vote, but does this 48h notice mean that she postponed the vote because the letters were in?

Also if she loses (I don't think she will, but the vote delay does seem to have pissed off both sides) is there anyone not completely batshit and evil and crash-out-Brexity (obv these are Tories but just 1 or 2 out of 3 perhaps?) who might stand for leadership?

The fact that no one is fronting an extension to article 50 makes me think that's exactly what will end up happening, whoever's in government.

Either that or May drags on and enough MPs are terrified of a no deal that she ends up winning her vote in the game of chicken.

its hard to tell whether the erg et al believe in any way that the deal can be improved or whether they are just eager to wreck the gaff until hard exit happens

Hell, I might have my tin-foil hat on, but I'm still sometimes finding it hard to tell if May actually thinks her deal is a good compromise that should have united both sides, or if she too has deliberately proposed a thing that neither side will go for and is letting the clock run down

mostly suspect she's just painted herself into a corner and is now too robotic to manoeuvre out of it, since I can't see a particularly compelling motive for her to want a crash-out, but Philip can get p. rich off it and she does really appear to hate foreigners, viz. "go home" vans, student visas, Windrush

then again I'm still not entirely sure it was an accident for even a hubristic lightweight like Cameron to align so many things in favour of Leave and then call a referendum & declare himself the smug but half-hearted leader of the Remain campaign after 2 years of EU-bashing, so yes, I am a paranoid nutter, I guess

When I first heard 48 had been reached I thought it was because she postponed the vote, but does this 48h notice mean that she postponed the vote because the letters were in?

Brady said on Today this morning that the 15% threshold was reached yesterday, he spoke to the PM last night, and they agreed to move as quickly as possible to get some momentum (no pun intended) into the process and put aside convention.

Tonight is the CCHQ Christmas party, which is spectacular timing.

lol

What a total waste of everyone's time. May just won't lose tonight - just 50 or so Brexit 'believers' having a moan.

Back to the same shit tomorrow.

I'm not sure, I think May winning convincingly (<<100 votes against) might force ERG etc into the "only chance to get Brexit" pile and vote for it only to restart agitation in April.