one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Lawyers, you mean.

bless 'em, salt of the earth etc!

Not a fun read by any means. Pundits pointing out it mostly comes down to the risk for the UK to being even more in limbo.

Legal advice is politically very very problematic for govt in terms of the ‘trap’ of the backstop-lots in it but key phrase - ‘in terms of international law it would endure indefinitely until a superseding agreement’-and WA does not give ‘legal means of compelling EU’ to do that

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 5, 2018

Full legal advice appears to be brutally unvarnished description of something we already knew. Politically toxic for PM because it gives anti-deal side quotable quotes on hatefulness (as they see it) of backstop.

— Rafael Behr (@rafaelbehr) December 5, 2018

It read like the DUP will not be happy with it, which could mean no confidence?

About leaving, it basically says exactly what the Attorney General said in parliament; that there is a risk the transitional agreements are very protracted and, since they can only legally be replaced by a subsequent agreement then the backstop will be by default an indefinite agreement. It points out, however, why an extended period is in nobody's interests and very much doubts it would continue beyond 2020 (but notes this is a political position and not a legal one) and states that Ireland will be the primary agitators in coming to an agreement - and it's why that is that's the most interesting part.

The solution to the NI problem turns out to be, for the transition period, for NI to remain within the CU and SM wrt Ireland trade and GB to maintain the current EU relationship, with these being aligned within a whole UK holistic arrangement. So there is, at least for 20 months, an Irish Sea border.

This presents issues for Ireland because there is a massive risk of company flight across the border to get full UK and EU access through the back door, and issues for the EU because as far as NI is concerned this is a fundamental breaking of the four freedoms, which was supposedly their red line.

So, the most tangible effect of releasing the full advice is to strengthen the ERG hand by showing the EU have conceded more ground than previously thought and agreed what was "impossible". Well done all.

lol we're all gonna die

From what I can see the full legal advice has pretty much destroyed any chance of May somehow whipping Tory Brexiters into line, let alone persuading the DUP. It's dead in the water.

So general election, Corbin victory, withering of the state, utopia!

Autocorrect is biased against Corbyn.

It's only human

Trying to imagine the DUP ever being happy. Back in x aeons.

Stick a bowler hat on their heads, sash over the shoulder, point them in the direction of a Catholic housing estate, they're happy as Larry.

damn

happy as billy shurely

Actually here's a thing; if the ERG wing coordinated their letters so that, say, the 48 hours expired at about the same time as the meaningful vote - May would be able to delay announcing until she knew whether she'd won or not and therefore her ability to ride out the challenge - if she lost then the leadership election would presumably have to play out before any General Election as a party can't go in leaderless...

Which would kill any hopes of a snap election and renegotiation within the existing timescales therefore reducing the options to No Deal or abandoning the process (pending ECJ decisions)?

You've lost me - delay announcing what?

I think if "the adults aren't coming to save us", the kids on hobby horses are definitely not coming to save anyone.

yow

Corbyn is right to be angry at Theresa May for laughing as he talks of a decade of wage stagnation during #PMQs.

there's nothing funny about a decade of job insecurity and people struggling (more here https://t.co/wKI343dTn9) pic.twitter.com/uGRNQOwxbI

— Michael Segalov (@MikeSegalov) December 5, 2018

the irish times enjoying pointing out that the bombshell in the legal advice is

exactly what was reported as fairly basic, simple and obvious fact everywhere else throughout the teasing out of requirements and solutions

like at what point do you just question the layers of pantomime involved in pretending not to understand the lack of options i guess is the question

i'm sorry, i don't understand the question

*turns briskly on heel, walks straight into open lift-shaft*

im sorry im being difficult because we lost the war to ye that time

xpost delay announcing the leadership challenge/1922 cttee decision. She, by convention, gets up to 48 hours to tell the House.

The key would be to get the Con leadership process underway before the Opposition could call for a vote of no confidence and attempt dissolution because that could then play into the timelines I said.

Although I still don't know how no confidence could work in time either mind because aiui the Cons would get 14 days to try and make a more solid govt, then the collective opposition would get 14 days, then if it all failed there would be an election - presumably this is why McDonnell is pushing the "you should just hand us power" line as there isn't enough time for due process. Can Lab opt to give up their opportunity by just saying they can't make a government and going straight to the election - or could they be held up by e.g. the SNP insisting they spend 14 days trying?

And they're definitely not coming to save anyone but if they can frustrate the other options by gaming the parliamentary system then it could be their way to no deal through it becoming the only available option.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/publishing-legal-advice-on-scottish-brexit-bill-would-be-dangerous-precedent-1-4701824

"We have already undertaken an exceptional statement, permitted under the ministerial code, in which the Lord Advocate has indicated the reasons the Government has taken the action it has by saying why we believe this was in competence.

He has also gone further, he has come to the chamber and he has answered questions from members on these matters, and that is an exceptional step to take.

It is not the view of the government that we should then move into not only completely uncharted waters, but waters that would set, we think, a very difficult and dangerous precedent, if we were then to publish or give further legal advice, so that is not the intention so to do.

We have indicated very clearly in publications, in statements, why the Scottish Government believes this is competent and we have given legal reasons for that.”

He also said the Presiding Officer had “published a lengthier statement than I believe he has ever published before” on the matter.

Yesterday must have felt like deja vu, even the language is the same.

i think it's a mistake to assume that may and the EU -- as head-to-head negotiators -- can be trapped by the interlock of two sets of machinery into something neither of them want… if something like that is very evidently coming down the wire, previously unmovable objects will suddenly quietly move (at may's request or EU suggestion) to shut that down

i think the clear announcement of a GE would postpone absolute deadlines, whatever's been hinted or stated otherwise

And a no confidence vote in the government can happen whether or not there is an incumbent prime minister. As can an election.

Nick Robinson had a panel of ordinary people for some general public brexit talk and someone actually said this about the negging, I heard it live: "We sent a Rich Tea biscuit to battle a Hob Nob. A Hob Nob is the tough one of biscuits. If we’d sent a Hob Nob with chocolate on to battle a Hob Nob we’d have won.”

these people are allowed to vote

"who is the hob nob with chocolate on?" i think was his next question. i'd lost the will to live before hearing the reply.

"the way to negotiate with these people was to just walk away. they'd've come running after us offering us things" said one of the others (maybe the same one)

(panel was picked by independant company, 4 leavers, 4 remainers.)

someone remind me why "battling" is a word that should be anywhere near this conversation?

hobnobs i get

They all seemed to back a second referendum, but none of them would change their votes.

Also, a remain voter said he thought Boris would have sorted it all out. He did not say OMG HE IS A LEGERND though he might as well have done.

Hob nob man demonstrated a livelier intellect than either May or Humphrys a little later in the broadcast.

Meanwhile Maybot gave a talk to R4 this morning, that's being struck down as rambling gibberish w/ zero passion. It's almost as if she doesn't know what to do next...

budd dwyer on the floor of the commons or gtfo

Times flowchart today for the next week or so seems pretty accurate, frequency of outcome is GE, May Deal, 2nd Ref, No Deal but the last three of those are pretty indistinguishable.

I can't shake the 'yeah but then what' associated with GE because I can't see how it doesn't just take you back into the flowchart with the same outputs.

Len McLusky says Labour shouldn't entertain a 2nd ref.

i think i... agree w him? i don't know what to think anymore though rly

love how every brexiteer that two years ago argued parliament should get no meaningful vote on the deal is now whingeing about amendments or threatening to vote it down

If there's an election then Labour won't campaign on a second ref, I don't think. Second ref is for if they can't force an election.

was hobnob man either of jrm or bj because i saw a (maddeningly unchallenged) interview with laura kuensseberg with the latter yesterday evening and thats v much his take

"the eu have bullied us using northern ireland"

somehow in no way inconsistent with

"a better deal would be achievable with proper british grit at the table"

your media is a bit of a joke obv this isnt aha news

Nick Robinson had a panel of ordinary people for some general public brexit talk and someone actually said this about the negging, I heard it live: "We sent a Rich Tea biscuit to battle a Hob Nob. A Hob Nob is the tough one of biscuits. If we’d sent a Hob Nob with chocolate on to battle a Hob Nob we’d have won.”

"See my frying pan? Gave it a wee dunt. Gave it a wee dunt in front of the kitchen knife... just in case".

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2zhsi0

DUP standing behind the EU and Ireland promises "as recently as two weeks ago" that there will be no hard border in Ireland "even in the event of No Deal". I've read this before (a couple of months ago) but a restating of it seems to conflict with backstop insistence (unless the promises are made on an unspoken predication of an Irish Sea border in which case oops you should have checked the small print).

IDS stated on PM last night that in the ERG meetings with Barnier last month (? Just before the WA was agreed I think) they submitted their alternative proposals "because he had asked us to previously" and he (Barnier) said they were "good, he liked them".

Anyway, a Hob Nob is hardly tough, as biscuits go, it's pretty crumbly really and if you should dunk it in your tea? Furgeddaboudit!

get in the tea

Yeah if you’re looking at a tough biscuit, you’d want a ginger nut.

You know who was ginger? Winston Churchill. Figures.

Churchill was in black and white iirc

Which biscuit would you send over there to sort out ISIS?

Er dunno but I've got a garibaldi punchline ready to go as soon as someone can figure out the right setup.