US Politics December 2018: ~very legal and very cool~

He's arguing this may portend another crash and the '06 op-ed was myopic.

I suppose if one predicts a correction and/or crash it will eventually happen, esp. since it hasn't happened for a while, but I suppose that is a more specific warning.

kind of comprehensible explainer

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge

i don't think anyone predicting a recession next year is out on a limb at this point

not quite a canary in the coal mine.. article I read said something like 'a recession has followed within 6-24 months'

When were folks first talking about an inversion curve? A year ago? A quick google found some predictions Dec. 2017 that the inversion curve could arrive in the next year, and another article from the previous summer that predicted it by the end of that year, 2017. So I suppose people have been seeing this coming for at least a year and a half. And now it's year, and a recession could be another 2 years off. Or sooner. Who knows? It's about time, probably.

not quite a canary in the coal mine.. article I read said something like 'a recession has followed within 6-24 months'

― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, December 4, 2018 9:48 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

pal of mine today said 'so this means we can expect a recession sometime between this year and the heat death of the sun'

you can bank on it.

Hrm.

NEW: DOJ inspector general's office released a report finding a now-former senior DOJ official sexually assaulted and sexually harassed women working for him — no criminal prosecution, the official retired, he isn't named https://t.co/34C5yg55om pic.twitter.com/Llc5SvVm4W

— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) December 4, 2018

Stone took the fifth?

Is that pretty much an admission of guilt?

Can't testify because it would be self incrimination?

An admission of guilt, yes. But, crucially, it is not evidence of guilt.

p sure Mueller has evidence of his guilt at this point

evidence of guilt doesn't mean it will win in court or even get an indictment

YALL LAWYERS HUH

oh no, the poor staff at weekly standard!!

The fate of The Weekly Standard, the conservative magazine that has staked out a position as a publication on the right still critical of President Donald Trump, is uncertain, Editor-in-Chief Stephen Hayes told staff in a series of phone calls Tuesday, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The magazine's precarious position comes after its leadership spent months searching for a buyer, the people told CNN.

The people explained that The Weekly Standard's leadership had butted heads with MediaDC, the current publisher of the magazine, and that the two parties had agreed to allow Hayes to search for a new owner.

However, MediaDC recently informed The Weekly Standard's leadership that the company was no longer interested in a sale, the people said.

Instead, Ryan McKibben, the chairman of MediaDC, asked to meet with Hayes in a meeting tentatively scheduled for late next week, the people said. McKibben, they said, also requested the entire staff of The Weekly Standard be made available following the meeting.

CNN saying Flynn report within the hour.

They also said Don Jr would be indicted two weeks ago.

In this case, the report has to come out by the end of the day, so.

Yes, yes, yes.

why would anything come out now, surely most feds knocked off hours ago for the free day off tomorrow

Precisely. (Per a tweet I linked above, it can be filed into PACER at any point during the day.)

So where is this Flynn shit? Is there perhaps a behind the scenes legal challenge to its release?

Filing has arrived!

Mueller on Flynn: "Given the defendant’s substantial assistance and other considerations set
forth below, a sentence at the low end of the guideline range—including a sentence that does not impose a term of incarceration—is appropriate and warranted."

Flynn memo drops (for real) as @renato_mariotti and I are recording his podcast. Main memo: 7 pages. Portion about cooperation: 6 pages, heavily redacted.

— ScottFreeHat (@Popehat) December 5, 2018

This fits with what Marcy Wheeler and others were figuring -- not much detail, redaction due to a lot more going on involving others.

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.191592/gov.uscourts.dcd.191592.46.0.pdf

Does not seem to be redacted?

Oh, I see:

Because the Addendum includes sensitive information about ongoing investigations, the government is seeking to partially seal the Addendum, and has filed publicly a redacted version of the document that excludes the sensitive information.

General detail

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/michael-flynn-robert-mueller-fbi-sentencing-prison

Redacted addendum:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5425878-Gov-Uscourts-Dcd-191592-46-1-2.html

Lmao

pomo american flag vibes pic.twitter.com/Ibp2VNlHBJ

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) December 5, 2018

Trump's gonna be like "no jail time, see, Flynnocent!"

Looks like Flynn aided three investigations: REDACTED criminal investigation, the Mueller probe and REDACTED. Even the subject header of the third is redacted in the full document. pic.twitter.com/nvCJKZAFGr

— Philip Bump (@pbump) December 5, 2018

Oh. Oh my. https://t.co/nn6BBW8jiZ pic.twitter.com/tjcsNdTfgP

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) December 5, 2018

what's the cliff's notes

"don't lock him up"

Three separate investigations Flynn helped with, he talked a hell of a lot via 19 meetings, Mueller recommending only probation time = Flynn named a lot of names.

My favorite part of all of this has been ashley feinberg constantly monitoring donald trump jr on twitter but she doesn’t seem to do that as much anymore idk. Something so soothing about hate-watching the hapless sons for a sec, like I’d love to see some flynn jr highlights of late but not enough to actually seek him out on social media.

what are the odds--i need numbers--that mueller has found, in looking into all of this stuff, not just to do with "contact with the russians," some crime that trump committed that would people would find legitimately shocking?

ashley feinberg is an american treasure

ashley feinberg is an american treasure

At this point i feel like proof of trump’s erectile dysfunction would make more of a dent among his supporters than an actual homicide coming to light.

If it came out that he was ever with a man (extremely unlikely but you never know) that would take him down for sure.

A horse doesn't seem entirely out of the question.

what are the odds--i need numbers--that mueller has found, in looking into all of this stuff, not just to do with "contact with the russians," some crime that trump committed that would people would find legitimately shocking?

― Trϵϵship, Tuesday, December 4, 2018 6:36 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

9

Meanwhile in Wisconsin, nobody knows what the hell is going on; both Assembly and Senate formally in session, I believe, but they are not in the chamber, nobody knows what's being negotiated, apparently a lot of health care industry lobbyists are floating around and there's some speculation that they're telling the GOP there will be hell to pay if they actually pass their bill saying that every single health care policy change has to be approved by the legislature (this is meant to keep evers from rescinding walker's stepped-up bureaucratic obstacles to Medicaid enrollment but like everything else in this hash of a bill it was not prepared with a lot of attention to detail.)

Original plan was to pass this at about 2am (you can see why!) but we are way behind the posted schedule

we should do a 'most fucked up state politically' poll

I get it now. They're bringing back the coal jobs so they don't run of things that produce black marks for sentencing memo redactions.