one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

I can see Brexiteers voting with May if they think this is the only Brexit they'll get, rather than face another referendum or no Brexit.

Cut the cord and keep working away to make Britain great again, or whatever the fuck they are looking for.

Yeah, fuck knows what the manifestos look like

They better be writing one.

wake me up when election

Honestly NV? I don't think it matters because I just don't believe that Brexit is the #1 electoral issue for enough people. There is no way that Corbyn and McDonnell will allow the campaign to be about Brexit and nothing else. If they can set the agenda, as they did last time, and the public like their policies on other issues enough then people will vote on that basis, as they should do.

John Rentoul isn't ready for that:

This is a strong speech; PM's arguments are far superior to those of her opponents to left and right, but will logic prevail?

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) December 4, 2018

i don't believe Brexit is even the #3 electoral issue for most people but we are in crazy times here, if they force a general election they can stonewall as much as they want but they're going to have to commit themselves to something a little more solid than the smoke and mirrors they're using now

theresa may DESTROYS parliamentary opposition with FACTS and LOGIC

... Then I think they'll commit to a second referendum with enough respect for Brexiters laid on as a figleaf.

for one thing, whoever wins a putative election is going to have to come straight back and deal with this mess

yeah to be clear Matt i'm not thinking about how Labour sells whatever they decide on to the electorate at large, but about how damaging a rift it might create within the existing MPs and activists and whether that might impact on any electoral campaign

lads what the fuck are ye at over there

gombeen men

if they force a general election they can stonewall as much as they want but they're going to have to commit themselves to something a little more solid than the smoke and mirrors they're using now

Absolutely, it's painful watching Labour minister trying to explain Labour policy on Brexit - but not as painful as it is for them.

Remain still looks likely to win a May vs Remain referendum which is probably a safeish way for the winner to deal with it. Now with much added heft if A50 really is revokable. And we’d be shot of Hoey at last too.

The DUP have already said they are ready for an election.

I don't believe this for a second either, they could get hammered at an election in NI right now and they know it.

It’ll be a hell of a stalemate if they can’t pass a deal, are prevented from a no deal, and win a no confidence vote.

yep, and all of that's still possible

Johnson in classic self-clowning form at the moment, nothing to offer or propose except chaos

some men just want to watch the world burn

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F_7HF5xznDXCM%2FTRpl29Y1FEI%2FAAAAAAAAAKE%2F3iMSYpvbCls%2Fs1600%2FBoris%2B%252527Joker%252527%2BJohnson.jpg&f=1

This is miserable and depressing and infuriating but it’s great telly

He's gonna quote Churchill before he's done

maybe Enoch Powell

he needs to realise his place in Conservative party history is much a more 90's John Redwood "hubris to laughing stock" sideshow than with the main players any more, the game's over!

This is miserable and depressing and infuriating but it’s great telly

― stet, Tuesday, December 4, 2018 8:55 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Missing all the fun here. I can only choose btwn bbc1 and 2 rn and it's a toss up between something called Holby City and Masterchef :(

MASTERCHEF

Blackford gets a Winnie Ewing reference in within two minutes, impressive work

Would watch Masterchef if it wasn't for George Wallace. I've punched enough telly screens trying to hurt that fuckface scumbag badly.

Gregg's a pervy egg but he's no George [and actually the Professionals series is really good as this sort of telly goes]

Gregg Wallace is annoying but perhaps not as bad a person as George

If today's ECJ suggestion that the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 turns out to be true, and I doubt they'd have mentioned it if it wasn't

am I missing something, or haven't Europe been gently, patiently reminding the UK over and over since the day after the vote (including may's invocation of A50) that they can change their mind at any time

I actually think the combination of the three losses and the AG's opinion might well get May's deal through first time. People will feel they've made a point, then imagine themselves mocked up as turkeys voting for Christmas, and fall in line. I still think there are Labour rebels come the actual vote and it's entirely possible a dedicated leaver like, say Mhairi Black decides she can't - as she put it about the referendum - hold her nose hard enough since polling might put the SNP in trouble in some constituencies come the election (and she in particular has that hospital pressure group on her back).

I've read a couple of European lawyers picking apart the AG's statement (including the Secret Lawyer) and it's not nearly as cut and dried as people seem to think; he suggests withdrawing is permissible unilaterally but not extending which would not permit an election or referendum without approval of the 27 through timing issues, ironically compounded by the Grieve amendment and/or no confidence timings. It's questionable whether all parties being happy with the changes to the EU election timetables as they may have to be cancelled, and there's also a lot of EU internal admin to be sorted if there was a change to the current plan - against the financial troubles of Italy, the possibility of no government in Belgium and one of Merkel's two most likely successors wanting to remove the principle of Asylum in Germany it's not hard to see many countries being keen on getting the elections over on schedule.

This feels like the equivalent bit in Star Wars Rogue One where the Alliance gets hold of the Empire’s Death Star plans. Come on in Luke and the Rebel Alliance.. https://t.co/rjqf0pMAtF

— Clive Lewis (@labourlewis) December 4, 2018

He does know there's an actual Star Wars film where democracy is lost forever to an evil dictatorship because a useful idiot is conned into voting down a trade deal, doesn't he?

lol u were listening to any of that crap in the prequels?

wasn't rolling my eyes at Lewis for referencing the wrong Star Wars film tbh

christ the comments on that clive lewis tweets are like looking directly at a nuclear detonation

I'm fairly sure that Aldo is correct that it's likely the deal will go through next week.

A blobby ref from Lewis and I'd be going yeah, PM material

Just can’t see it. Maybe if it went to a second vote. There are too many hard Brexiters to let it through without a big protest vote first.

history of wales pt 5 is covering lloyd george, the great strikes and the disasters of the mid 1910s

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit/house-of-commons-vote-to-pass

5/1 yes - 1/6 no.

I think Norway is maybe an even worse deal in an awful lot of eyes - for example the SNP seem keen but they are avoiding Norway being out of the CFP in name only; they have to take the access from the EU in return for only about 80% of fishery trade tariff free and maybe crucially they pay the most for salmon and mackerel which are potentially the points of interest for Scottish exports. It also means rule taker indefinitely so any of those principled Brexiteers who couldn't vote for May's deal on that basis are in a bit of soapy bubble.

It feels to me like "+" is doing a lot of work for a lot of people for completely different and sometimes opposing 'benefits', much as the debate to date has been and with no hint the EU would even reopen the negotiations to work out what '+' might be and no time to do it.

Yep, I think that’s right. I mean the only the deal that’s better than remain is a fantasy one

quote of the day, shared without comment, is from Boris Johnson:

“We may be 1-0 down at this stage of the negotiation with the EU but we can still win 2-0.”

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) December 4, 2018

I can never read odds, cal. Does that mean the deal is 30x more likely to go through than not, based on betting odds, or the opposite?

no 1/6 is heavily odds on and basically you'd get £1.16 back including your stake for a quid!

Possible scenario: 1) House rejects May's deal. 2) May wins no confidence vote. 3) May goes to Brussels, returns with little or nothing. 4) Very slightly rejigged deal is sent back to the House. 5) May says if the bill fails, she will withdraw A50, as it's the only alternative to no-deal. 6) Deal passes.

xp
but betting markets only really tell you where fools or shrewdies are putting their money and you never know which has staked the most.

tsk, a simple "it's still nil-nil lads" would have sufficed

Would a no-confidence vote from the Tories occur between 5) and 6)?