one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

outlandish scenario of deems becoming PM just popped into my head. i should probably get some rest.

AF:

Except the 36th only removed the language making abortion illegal, and as I understand it (but see above regarding "bad Irishman") the actual legislation that would make it legal is still wending its way towards law?

― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:00 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tactical- clear consensus that the existing needed removing and was causing harm day-to-day. they werent sure enough of numbers to risk splintering about what we *should* have, so they firmed up the removal first and commitment to legislation if this was carried.

xp post-brexit ye cant afford me

Fizzles, I find my position closer yours than anyone else on here, and I agree that parliamentary stasis is a strong likelihood, because we literally have the worst people in the world in government atm. But you said it yrself

(the logic being assuming this deal doesn't pass - and nothing at the moment says it will apart from the lol incompetence of the ERG seeing them all capitulate, allowing labour rebels to vote for -then no deal is inevitable unless parliament seek some vehicle to avoid it, which might be a referendum).

I think most everyone on this thread underestimates the public will - rage, frustartion, "aghastness" - not to have a no deal scenario, and I think this is capable of translating into parliamentary action. Have we all already forgotten Starmer's no deal amendment? That has a strong chance of success.

Maybe I underestimate Parliamentary inertia and venality on my side, no one ever profited by forgetting that.

I worry about that public will, but then I spend too much of every day on conhome.

well that is the question, glums, definitely. i very much err towards the final sentence there. as i said to someone else recently my current vision is of a duracell bunny T May marching relentlessly and beyond all utility off a no deal cliff while insisting nothing has changed nothing has changed and us all dancing pied-piper fashion off after her.

I had to give up reading CH on a regular basis recently, there’s only so much yelling at clouds I can deal with.

#peoplesvote def comes across as trying to undo something that has wide support and aren't regretful over.

xp oi

I don't think you're being very rhetorically consistent or much of a judge of character glum but peace be with you and I hope something miraculous happens to put a functional Corbyn government in power in 2019, seriously.

― Danton Lok (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:21 (eight minutes ago)

I am neither of those, yeah. Appreciate your peace, I dont post enough to be criticised, unlike you, so i wanna say i appreciate your posts on many things.

AF:

Except the 36th only removed the language making abortion illegal, and as I understand it (but see above regarding "bad Irishman") the actual legislation that would make it legal is still wending its way towards law?

― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:00 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tactical- clear consensus that the existing needed removing and was causing harm day-to-day. they werent sure enough of numbers to risk splintering about what we *should* have, so they firmed up the removal first and commitment to legislation if this was carried.

― old yeller-at-clouds (darraghmac), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:26 (sixteen seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Also, referenda are a constitutional issue in Ireland fundamentally. Legislation best left to legislature.

#peoplesvote def comes across as trying to undo something that has wide support and aren't regretful over.

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:30 (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Okay, but fuck them. For young people it's not about "rolling the clock back", is it?

No, but they are one of a number of groups who have a vote. I am not as confident as you about even a tiny portion of older ppl going toward remain from leave.

Even in a straight remain / leave vote there are three options - with the third being stay at home. The key thing will be what proportion of the people who enthusiastically voted for the abstract concept of leave are going to be as enthusiastic about the concrete idea of no-deal, May’s proposal or something else, if that is going to be the outcome.

God @ this, it's like none of you had an FA Cup replay to watch

also, was it yours or matt's point upthread - older people are *voters*. yes, it does look like there is more political motivation amongst younger people (the last election seemed to show that – tho there are people who have pointed out that having that election campaign in term time probably wasn't v sensible), but i still doubt turnout is as high as in the older demographics.

that can be for reasons other than apathy of course – fixed addresses are much less common i would imagine.

xpost

and again, all this presupposes that there is a referendum, which while possible still feels less likely than no deal to me.

fuck, and mansfield were polling so well.

I see that May and Blair united effectively against Chorley this evening.

i think parliamentary stasis is far more likely than anyone pushing for anything.

The language round Sturgeon's meeting with Corbyn suggests this is pretty accurate. Her position is to stay in the SM and CU, but the best she could say is that they agreed it shouldn't be a binary May Deal/No Deal choice.

She also said support for a second ref was 'growing', but then she's been saying the case for independence has been 'growing' since the Brexit referendum and according to some reporting today has just kicked that down the road until after the next Holyrood elections in 2021.

Meanwhile, sorry if this has been posted but 😬😬😬😬

Boris Johnson is going to speak at the DUP conference this weekend - wonder why...

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 20, 2018

SV - but the concrete idea of no-deal doesn't materialise until it happens? So until then its a tale to be spun. And it will be well told. A competing vision is needed where people are prepared to vote against billions of euro development fund because it didn't make a difference. They just didn't notice it.

Fizzles - and turnout was pretty high last time, no? Higher than the last general election. The question is will enough young ppl and remainers turn the vote around by a big enough margin? I am not convinced.

I still don’t understand starmer’s “we’ll legislate to stop a no deal brexit” tack. have we had any more clarity on how he’ll look to stop crashing out by default ?

and again, all this presupposes that there is a referendum, which while possible still feels less likely than no deal to me.

my grasp on what happens if the deal gets rejected isn’t strong so i hope you’re right. i don’t really think there’s any *appetite* as such for no deal, just that the lack of majority for any form of brexit (or no) means it would happen by default.

also - hold a leadership campaign! might need to be in there.

is there a clock ticking here? presumably we just run out of time at some stage, tho i can’t believe if the political will is there that art 50 couldn’t be extended (to what end tho? it would have to be predicated on an election i think)

Yes, admittedly it’s pure speculation; we’d be in uncharted territory. But I think the EU would be prepared to go to some lengths to avoid a crash-out. If the govt asks for an extension to allow for a vote of some kind it’s hard to see that being refused.

What would be refused I think would be a “just give us a bit more time to keep chatting”. That’s when you’d get into “no, you have to hold another referendum” brinksmanship.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

People have voted for change and they are getting it one way or another.

yes, totally agree that “more chatting” wouldn’t be on the table.

it’s interesting (in the way seeing a slo mo crash you can do nothing about is “interesting”) to see what happens within the tory party here.

traditional wisdom wd probably say the party as an organism has incredible survival/hold on to power instincts - which given current balance of power with ERG would see brexiters back May and her deal with a little bit of fudged language or at least sufficient to also allow labour rebels to tip the balance.

other argument is that way too many tory MPs have publicly committed (either thru resignation or v public positions) to vote against the deal, so that, assuming DUP is firm, there is simply no way the deal can pass, and no incentive at all for labour mps to rebel.

xpost

"I see that May and Blair united effectively against Chorley this evening."

for a minute I genuinely thought this would be about a reaction to some Matt Chorley piece!

good article that xpost.

That YouGov poll is so obviously not "28% for Remain". There will be plenty of Accept The Result types answering another option in the poll because they're being asked the best option *in this precise scenario we find ourselves in* who would vote Remain again were that situation to change.

It's almost certainly still roughly 48-52 in one direction or the other.

Surprised that YouGov poll didn’t also have “Join Schengen”, “Invade Ireland” and “Bring back hanging” as options too

I know I've said it before, but I don't see a way to have another referendum which doesn't do great harm to our democracy. It's not the fault of anyone but those who called the first referendum, but I can't imagine a way it can happen. What if the pro-brexit boycott it? And what if they feel that there's no point in supporting the current state because they'll be promised something, then have it taken away? There will be a real crisis of legitimacy. I want to stay in, but Cameron stopped that being a possibility.

is there appetite for a non-brexit uk politics thread? or failing that mb a 'no londoners' politics thread

is no one seriously entertaining the possibility that no deal, and the lack of time for any alternative to may's plan, means that minds get focused enough to actually pass it? may claims victory, the mail goes 'huzzah!", opinion pieces are written about the grudging respect one has to have for tmay, etc. Surely this is... quite likely?

to pass her own deal? it is quite likely.

although...

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez @sanchezcastejon today at Spain Summit in Madrid

“if there are no changes regarding Gibraltar, Spain will vote No to the agreement on Brexit”. pic.twitter.com/RKKRjjqqfp

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 20, 2018

I should have read the rest of that thread before I posted that.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/14/brexit-eu-referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/19/brexit-class-labour-conservative-leave-peoples-vote

He's been on a journey. To Mansfield, I think.

With the DUP out and about 20-odd v public Tory NOs, passing it is effectively all down to Labour now. The working assumption that if the deal bill fails they will get an election will surely keep enough of them in line for it not to pass. Xp to TH.

surely many - most? - of those public nos could turn to yeses when the rubber gets within hailing distance of the road?

I know I've said it before, but I don't see a way to have another referendum which doesn't do great harm to our democracy. It's not the fault of anyone but those who called the first referendum, but I can't imagine a way it can happen. What if the pro-brexit boycott it? And what if they feel that there's no point in supporting the current state because they'll be promised something, then have it taken away? There will be a real crisis of legitimacy. I want to stay in, but Cameron stopped that being a possibility.

― Leaghaidh am brón an t-anam bochd (dowd), Wednesday, 21 November 2018 10:32 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Whatever happens the damage has already been done to democracy, the whole system needs tearing up and starting again. Whichever way this goes the uk looks set to lurch from crisis to crisis until the constitution is redrawn.

Well, drawn.

I do think the system looks irreparably fucked but this is a v conservative country and post-Brexit or whatever unlikely Deus Ex postpones Brexit whoever's clinging on to power is unlikely to be minded to or capable of reforming it.

In the short term, anyway

otm

Harris was on the radio earlier talking how special needs education is all skewed towards helping middle class parents rather than thick working class fuckers who can't read and afford barristers for educational tribunals. He's right to an extent, and I know as a thick illiterate whose been there before and lost! But his tone in an earlier Graun piece this year was so fucking tone-deaf to the breadth of the autism spectrum and also of the discrepancy between what he has experienced in London and what you get in Batley Carr etc.. It's a tough job growing up in public when you are knocking on 50 and a shit hack, and only just reaching basic awareness. But at least he has shifted an few millimetres away from "complete tin-eared cunt". But still one for the list.

EHCP is skewed against anybody who wants the local authority to spend money tbh, it's an intentional feature.