one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Much of the polling I have seen post-vote tells me the appetite to leave in some way is strong. They would probably lose, but not conclusively so...

so you don't want to come up with something better than 'what you voted for is a joke'? Just the kind of position that will turn this around..xxp

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:20 (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think there's a lot more good reasons to have a 2nd ref that that, but you go ahead and focus on that if you want to, and see if any young people agree with you. In any case, mild hypocrisy if it's even that, beats national suicide every time.
PS I don't think virtually anyone cares about the "meaning" of the 1st ref anymore. Wgaf, it's irrelevant. What matter snow is the future. You know some ppl who previously worked in the fossil fuel industry now campaign on MMGW?

There was a poll I read on twitter today that had about 5 or 6 options; no deal was the single biggest vote winner on 28% from memory, with the other two leave options in the high teens and roughly equal. The takeaway was that the three leave options were about 60% total.

Can't remember where it was though - I'm assuming it was one of the papers - and Google is not especially helpful.

it was posted upthread I think

It's yougov upthread.

Thanks. This news is moving so fast it's hard to keep up.

did anyone post this at the time? i don't remember it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crRTB2ILeYE

Worth pointing out that a proportion of Remain voters would probably have plumped for May's deal as the least worst/most realistic option here. The deal satisfies almost no-one but it's a lot better than I would have imagined and probably about as good as we're going to get.

There was a poll I read on twitter today that had about 5 or 6 options; no deal was the single biggest vote winner on 28% from memory, with the other two leave options in the high teens and roughly equal. The takeaway was that the three leave options were about 60% total.

Can't remember where it was though - I'm assuming it was one of the papers - and Google is not especially helpful.

― Bimlo Horsewagon became Wheelbarrow Horseflesh (aldo), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:37 (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

28% was for Remain in the EU, and it was the single biggest vote winner.

28% was for Remain in the EU, and it was the single biggest vote winner.

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:45 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

6/ Britain is completely divided on where to go from here:
Accept the deal - 16%
Seek new deal - 11%
Ref on terms of deal - 8%
No deal Brexit - 19%
Remain in EU - 28%https://t.co/qLzIYOnzjJ pic.twitter.com/gwMiXLHxEC
— YouGov (@YouGov) November 16, 2018

46% back some kind of brexit, 36% back a new ref or to remain in EU, 18% don't know or want something else. a resounding victory for remaining in the EU #FBPEU

brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening
brexit is happening

I stand completely corrected.

lol, did you miss the breakdown where actually about 46% want some kind of deal? and why only talk about young people in your prev post when older people are also voting and by and large they vote leave. xxxp

Xp
Indeed, but it's a yougov poll designed to showcase as many options as possible, not a 2nd ref ballot #butyouknewthstdidntyou #FBPE

'Seek new deal' is not some kind of Brexit - it's wanking.

Nope, haven't missed it. Still not meaningful. And I think you know very well why I concentrated on younger voters, as they are the untapped electorate who didn't turn up in 2016, but partially did in 2017. The older vote matters less in comparison, although if there's any swing in that demographic it will be towards remain.

There is an acceptance of leaving to 'seek new deal'. And if that is wanking then so is 'ref on terms of the deal', as we probably won't get anything better from the EU anyway. I see one as a flipside to the other.

Anyway the numbers are not overwhelming for rolling the clock back.

What viable process do you see leading to this 2nd ref happening?

How does a close result either way resolve any of the underlying issues?

How does the EU respond to a member locked in a cycle of referendums and counter-referendums to stay/leave?

Should parliamentary just not bother trying to run the country until we get this sorted?

Also, for clarity, I'm a strong Corbyn supporter - and think he's played a blinder on the brexit issue up to now - AND a second ref supporter. So you can't get me on that #FBPE shit. Pick another clichéd insult if you like.

I thought previously this thread had its own Fred. I now realise I was wrong.

^ there it is. I'm in N London btw, 2nd gen immigrant

glumdalclitch - You are making a bunch of assumptions without any polling data to back it up. Words around "meaning" don't er, mean very much.

28% for remain is appalling given the two years since the vote, the fact this hasn't left the news, the government's comedy negotiating AND how the public have had new information to digest around other factors, especially Nothern Irealnd.

Great. I’m living in a constituency that voted strongly for Leave and I’m an immigrant.

What viable process do you see leading to this 2nd ref happening?

This is the question. But let's at least accept this is the question, not walk into no man's land

How does a close result either way resolve any of the underlying issues?

It won't be a close result. Anyone who thinks is not paying attention.

How does the EU respond to a member locked in a cycle of referendums and counter-referendums to stay/leave?

Which cycle do you mean?

Should parliamentary just not bother trying to run the country until we get this sorted?

No

and you can say one of six choices but #peoplesvote can't even agree on the three choices on the ballot. And we are leaving in four months.

Great. I’m living in a constituency that voted strongly for Leave and I’m an immigrant.

― gyac, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:03 (thirty-three seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Great. Where does this leave us?

Xp
Indeed, but it's a yougov poll designed to showcase as many options as possible, not a 2nd ref ballot #butyouknewthstdidntyou #FBPE

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:53 PM (one second ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

latest yougov, on 15th, has 53% remain vs 47% leave when you remove the don't knows.

remembering that the last yougov poll before the referendum was 55% to 45% remain (when you combined all responses that suggested the person would vote one way or the other, regardless of how likely to vote they were or how firm their decision was)

despite my milk and water sympathies for frustrated backers of a second referendum, i think this is very optimistic I'm afraid:

How does a close result either way resolve any of the underlying issues?

It won't be a close result. Anyone who thinks is not paying attention.

and that's even without considering the process by which the choices get put on the ballot.

exactly. basing your assumptions on yougov polls is not helpful one way or the other. I am not backing up my assumptions with polling data because that would be madness at this stage.

I feel the situation in Parliament is a better reflection of public opinion than that.

I feel the situation in Parliament is a better reflection of public opinion than that.

Inability to make a decision resulting in no-deal?

It won't be a close result. Anyone who thinks is not paying attention

Can you show your workings?

despite my milk and water sympathies for frustrated backers of a second referendum, i think this is very optimistic I'm afraid:

that's fine. At the very least you recognise the option(s) and the possibilities for public and parliament to push for political change.

I'm somewhat bemused by Corbyn supporters on this thread who aren't even aiming that far. Has Corbyn taught you nothing?

It depends on what the choices are - a referendum on May’s deal as the only viable Brexit, even if everyone hates it, vs pursuing the option of remaining could help unite the warring Tory factions, put Labour in a difficult position and still lead to an outcome where there is so little public enthusiasm for a botched negotiation that the public ends up voting remain by default. At least you’d have an outcome either way, remain or leave,and a rhetorical case for saying it’s what the public wants,

exactly. basing your assumptions on yougov polls is not helpful one way or the other. I am not backing up my assumptions with polling data because that would be madness at this stage.

I feel the situation in Parliament is a better reflection of public opinion than that.

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:07 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

polling = bad.

basing assuming public opinion on MPs elected via FPTP mainly on strict party lines = good.

Can you show your workings?

― Danton Lok (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:10 (one minute ago)

can you show yours? I suspect that your ingrained cynical pessimism, as reflected in your every post, somewhat influences your perception, and maybe my deathless hope (ha!) influences mine. In any case, I'll continue to push back at the narrative of Brexit at every opportunity, while not taking cheap shots at Corbyn and McDonnell like those FBPE assholes.

At the very least you recognise the option(s) and the possibilities for public and parliament to push for political change.

in which case i probably expressed myself badly. i don't think there is much room for the public to push for anything - any outcome will be driven by parliamentary/tory party stasis, which is why the talk has been about both no deal and no brexit increasing in probability.

(the logic being assuming this deal doesn't pass - and nothing at the moment says it will apart from the lol incompetence of the ERG seeing them all capitulate, allowing labour rebels to vote for - then no deal is inevitable unless parliament seek some vehicle to avoid it, which might be a referendum).

for that reason as well, i think parliamentary stasis is far more likely than anyone pushing for anything.

there's no agency here – which is bad obviously. it's reminiscent of those times we can't make decisions and they get made for us either because someone else has to do it, or because the moment has passed and it's no longer possible to choose.

An example of the Brexit narrative up there: xyzz said "rolling the clock back", the worst possible mischaracterisation of a 2nd ref opportunity, as if the EU itself is some ossified organisation that isn't capable of change* and isn't in some way massively important for the future of the UK and Ireland (I mean, at least we can all agree on that, right? even if the UK is out of the EU, it will still be influencing our entire national politics forever).

*jokes go here

I don't think you're being very rhetorically consistent or much of a judge of character glum but peace be with you and I hope something miraculous happens to put a functional Corbyn government in power in 2019, seriously.

the two of ye picked a mighty issue to turn into fuckin hyperrealists biys

xpost to NV, cosign and the current odd mixture of total volatility and stasis makes it feel that when something gives, outlandish scenarios are perfectly possible.

outlandish scenario of deems becoming PM just popped into my head. i should probably get some rest.

AF:

Except the 36th only removed the language making abortion illegal, and as I understand it (but see above regarding "bad Irishman") the actual legislation that would make it legal is still wending its way towards law?

― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:00 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tactical- clear consensus that the existing needed removing and was causing harm day-to-day. they werent sure enough of numbers to risk splintering about what we *should* have, so they firmed up the removal first and commitment to legislation if this was carried.

xp post-brexit ye cant afford me

Fizzles, I find my position closer yours than anyone else on here, and I agree that parliamentary stasis is a strong likelihood, because we literally have the worst people in the world in government atm. But you said it yrself

(the logic being assuming this deal doesn't pass - and nothing at the moment says it will apart from the lol incompetence of the ERG seeing them all capitulate, allowing labour rebels to vote for -then no deal is inevitable unless parliament seek some vehicle to avoid it, which might be a referendum).

I think most everyone on this thread underestimates the public will - rage, frustartion, "aghastness" - not to have a no deal scenario, and I think this is capable of translating into parliamentary action. Have we all already forgotten Starmer's no deal amendment? That has a strong chance of success.

Maybe I underestimate Parliamentary inertia and venality on my side, no one ever profited by forgetting that.

I worry about that public will, but then I spend too much of every day on conhome.

well that is the question, glums, definitely. i very much err towards the final sentence there. as i said to someone else recently my current vision is of a duracell bunny T May marching relentlessly and beyond all utility off a no deal cliff while insisting nothing has changed nothing has changed and us all dancing pied-piper fashion off after her.

I had to give up reading CH on a regular basis recently, there’s only so much yelling at clouds I can deal with.

#peoplesvote def comes across as trying to undo something that has wide support and aren't regretful over.

xp oi

I don't think you're being very rhetorically consistent or much of a judge of character glum but peace be with you and I hope something miraculous happens to put a functional Corbyn government in power in 2019, seriously.

― Danton Lok (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 21:21 (eight minutes ago)

I am neither of those, yeah. Appreciate your peace, I dont post enough to be criticised, unlike you, so i wanna say i appreciate your posts on many things.