one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

that's the great thing, it applies to literally every situation

Yeah one thing that seems likely is not many people will learn anything from whatever happens over the next 12 months

Maybe eventually but recognising political fuck-ups seems to take a generation almost

or a generation is just long enough to start rehabilitating political fuckups and start making the same mistakes all over again

Also possible

"brexit to appease my disgust at this place" is a dark fuckin reason lads kudos

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/20/clement-attlee-child-refugee-paul-willer-fled-nazis-1939

cool story about Attlee + the kindertransport boy he helped, his generation were generally speaking just totally fucking awful and beyond redemption, but he was a class act in this case.

I have to say, I do find the absolutely held assumption that you can't just make people do the referendum again to get a different result a bit odd. We did it in Ireland. Seems really weird that the political class is so afraid of this considering it treats the population like a colony already.

Well wasn't the gap between the Eight Amendment and its overturning about 30 years?

---

Taking a look at the numbers Matt posted and...

There isn’t a Leave voter out there who would recognise either crash-out or the current deal as “what they voted for”.

Some kind of Brexit happening:

No deal Brexit - 19%
Accept the deal - 16%
Seek new deal - 11%

Some kind of roll-back:

Ref on terms of deal - 8%
Remain in EU - 28%

The conclusion is as the referendum, at the least - and it doesn't matter the ppl voting for the apocalypse might not like what they get - from these numbers there is not enough remorse in what they voted.

But you know - just let me go to #peoplesvote and pull out that vid of grandpa calling in LBC and crying about his leave vote back on that fateful day.

I look forward to reading both your posts when the referendum happens. Ideally pictures of your faces would be great too.

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Permanent scowls and smelling a fart

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Can I have an essay from you on what we do about this or are you going to bark?

Capt Mainwaring - pompous and self-important though he was - would emphatically not have been a Brexiteer. https://t.co/cVr6NvDtKN

— Tim Walker (@ThatTimWalker) November 20, 2018

I think he would have been but Rees-Mogg is more like Pike anyway.

Well wasn't the gap between the Eight Amendment and its overturning about 30 years?

The two Nice treaty referendums were just over a year apart.

yeah but we were on a timer there

AND the two Lisbon Treaty ones

we love a re-ref

most ppl of that time thought the first one was just called a ferendum

11 referendums in the UK since '73 - I thought it much fewer than that tbh!

now i’m wondering what the respective positions of and conversation between Mainwaring and the Air Raid Warden would be in this. I can’t call it.

On the other side of the conversation, as with the original referendum I don’t see that what people want has much to do with it.

If a referendum happens, and it seems likelier than it was while still being unlikely, it will be because we have been constitutionally unable to reach a decision and fear no deal too much to allow it to happen. that seems plausible.

in that case once again it will be the inability of a political group (first the tories, now tories + parliament more generally) to resolve a matter that results in it being passed to citizens to resolve.

that would clearly be a better outcome than no deal. i’m less certain that it’s a better outcome than something approaching a comparatively integrated brexit.

the push for a referendum from many has been exhausting in its attacks on the stupidity of brexit and criminality of its campaign and a general relitigation of that remain campaign but it hasn’t done much to answer central questions about who gets to decide what’s on the ballot (memories of PR ref there), or what happens in the case of a very tight result.

one thing i’m totally unwavering on is that this is entirely the responsibility of the tories and any call to back theresa may and the deal is, well, repellent and misguided.

flag post

xps to darragh

lol.

11 referendums in the UK since '73 - I thought it much fewer than that tbh!

Whereas in Ireland we’ve had 38 (if I counted that right?) in the same period. I’ve voted in as many referendums as I have GEs (the first Lisbon one lol).

be fair our constitution was made of prayers and brown bread

and comely maidens dancing at the crossroads

we love a re-ref

― Number None, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Looking at wiki and you guys definitely do! I think there is a lack of maturity in our politics which would make a 2nd ref difficult without it seeming like a betrayal of one group by another. #PeoplesVote is pretty much a pretence of another vote as cover for what they actually want, which is to reverse what happened, to do this as if 2016 never happened.

Although there’d is an obvious current in 2nd ref to reverse what has happened, it’s also clear that the government has no legitimacy or mandate for the deal, no deal or any other scenario so there has to be an election or a referendum. As people have said, people can and do change their minds in the face of new information.

However it’s also no doubt that any election or referendum campaign is going to be painful, divisive and no one will be truly happy whatever the outcome.

Can I have an essay from you on what we do about this or are you going to bark?

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 18:45 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I support the Labour Party position of a 2nd vote if no general election. I certainly don't think there's any reason to "honour" the previous ref which was a giant joke. There's no point in being finicky about something which is going to have effects of such magnitude. I certainly don't take any Lexit ideas seriously, whatever the putative notions of Northern voters in Guardian articles. I just don't think that people on here who like to squeeze themselves in ever narrowing political positions that barely fit the inside of a cupboard - Brexit might be bad but we have to honour the vote/ don't want Tory Brexit (which is the only one available) but i want to stick it to those Metropolitan FBPE types/ 2nd ref is a fantasy so let's contrarianly support the destruction of the future of young voters and workers - is any kind of useful leftwing, or indeed political position.

I was home last month, as it happens, and while I was in the pub with an ex-IlXoR, enquiring about Ireland's view of itself as a modern and progressive nation based on a few referenda. I learned (because I'm a bad Irishman) that along with the anti-blasphemy referendum that was expected to sail through at the same time as the presidential elections, there was another one that had been quietly dropped because headz weren't already sure it would go the right way.

I also got an earful about the fact that all of the referenda had explicit "this was what we will place into / remove from the constitution" language, the whole "leave or nah" would never fly over here.

Except the 36th only removed the language making abortion illegal, and as I understand it (but see above regarding "bad Irishman") the actual legislation that would make it legal is still wending its way towards law?

Although there’d is an obvious current in 2nd ref to reverse what has happened, it’s also clear that the government has no legitimacy or mandate for the deal, no deal or any other scenario so there has to be an election or a referendum. As people have said, people can and do change their minds in the face of new information.

However it’s also no doubt that any election or referendum campaign is going to be painful, divisive and no one will be truly happy whatever the outcome.

― American Fear of Pranksterism (Ed), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The government has legitimacy by being the party with the most number of seats, and the party able to form a government. As it is they are the ones able to sit and negotiate with the EU, and they have done so. There doesn't have to be an election before 2022, they don't need to call it. This deal is highly unlikely to go through however it is being put through a vote. If it happens to pass then these are the terms by which we leave. Notions of 'mandate' have nothing to do with it.

From the polls not enough people have changed their minds away from their original decision. In the #peoplesvote I often see people looking at 'evidence' of a change and if those are the brains looking at convincing people to change their minds we might as well not bother with any referendum.

If nobody is going to be happy with the outcome of a 2nd vote then do we run it a 3rd time?

ex post to Ed,

i think the problem is now that there's no mandate for anything – as i say, i don't think the process that takes place over the winter will be anything to do with what people want.

i don't think pressure over a people's vote is going to make it more likely. i also feel it's understandable that a lot of people back it, and they're not all Jolyon types - Cameron attempted to resolve a Tory party problem with a referendum*, in a context of heavy austerity, lack of investment outside london and a right wing press and set of politicians who had been hammering on about immigration. It's not unreasonable that the result made a lot of people angry, and I'm not talking twitter fbpe people who go on about 'getting the sensible people back in the room'. i don't really understand crowing about that.

*incidentally the Jo Johnson FT article Matt DC mentioned upthread was really clear on this (in case anyone wasn't):

That, of course, came in part in the form of the promise on page 72 that we would hold an In-Out referendum on our membership of the EU and honour the result. Although not given a prominent place in the document, the commitment, first made in a speech Cameron gave at Bloomberg’s London headquarters in January 2013, was not just essential for party management, but a way of limiting the growing threat of Ukip.

and also about the tory approach to only care about policy to the extent that it allows you to triangulate your way to power:

In the many meetings I’d had with Sir Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist running our campaign, he’d made clear that from his point of view my first duty was to do no harm. In an ideal world, he’d rather not have had a manifesto at all, especially one stuffed full of policies, but he recognised they were a necessary evil.

oh and in case it isn't obvious that 'do no harm' is about the tories not about the country you fules.

ex post? oh and *another* xpost.

I certainly don't think there's any reason to "honour" the previous ref which was a giant joke

Total non-starter. This is serious business - Art 50 was delivered post the vote, negotiations have taken place and in four months we are set to leave. You all better come up with something better than this.

Total non-starter. This is serious business - Art 50 was delivered post the vote, negotiations have taken place and in four months we are set to leave. You all better come up with something better than this.

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:10 (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Nope. You know very well that Art 50 can be extended if there is political will, which there very clearly is, on both negotiating sides. It's almost like you want us to leave the EU?

Unless the DUP take it upon themselves to break the confidence-and-supply arrangement I can't see how there'll be an election before March, so at what point does Labour change tack and start actively pushing for a vote? How do we even do that without an A50 extension?

I'll go on record here as saying that a "stay in the EU" option, were that clearly given, would win in a 2nd ref handsomely by several %. I've never been more sure of anything that the supposed "divisions" in the country are wildly exaggerated. The British public as a whole want to stay in the EU, and I feel certain the electorate would turn up this time. This is not fun and games like the previous abomination. No lib dems are hanging around government this time.

I am very happy to be held to this.

so you don't want to come up with something better than 'what you voted for is a joke'? Just the kind of position that will turn this around..xxp

You'd be very likely to get virtually 100% turnout among Remainers and a degree of fatigue among Leavers, but the Brexiters who care really really fucking care. That's before you start thinking about the actual facists and the material danger to some people (not just MPs) that a particularly nasty campaign would pose.

Aren't the DUP already bending the agreement against their knee?

Absolutely staggering. The Government has just accepted all Labour amendments to the Finance Bill because they couldn’t rely upon DUP to support them. Tories in office not in power. A government falling apart in front of us.

— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) November 20, 2018

*arrangement

Much of the polling I have seen post-vote tells me the appetite to leave in some way is strong. They would probably lose, but not conclusively so...

so you don't want to come up with something better than 'what you voted for is a joke'? Just the kind of position that will turn this around..xxp

― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:20 (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think there's a lot more good reasons to have a 2nd ref that that, but you go ahead and focus on that if you want to, and see if any young people agree with you. In any case, mild hypocrisy if it's even that, beats national suicide every time.
PS I don't think virtually anyone cares about the "meaning" of the 1st ref anymore. Wgaf, it's irrelevant. What matter snow is the future. You know some ppl who previously worked in the fossil fuel industry now campaign on MMGW?

There was a poll I read on twitter today that had about 5 or 6 options; no deal was the single biggest vote winner on 28% from memory, with the other two leave options in the high teens and roughly equal. The takeaway was that the three leave options were about 60% total.

Can't remember where it was though - I'm assuming it was one of the papers - and Google is not especially helpful.

it was posted upthread I think

It's yougov upthread.

Thanks. This news is moving so fast it's hard to keep up.

did anyone post this at the time? i don't remember it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crRTB2ILeYE

Worth pointing out that a proportion of Remain voters would probably have plumped for May's deal as the least worst/most realistic option here. The deal satisfies almost no-one but it's a lot better than I would have imagined and probably about as good as we're going to get.

There was a poll I read on twitter today that had about 5 or 6 options; no deal was the single biggest vote winner on 28% from memory, with the other two leave options in the high teens and roughly equal. The takeaway was that the three leave options were about 60% total.

Can't remember where it was though - I'm assuming it was one of the papers - and Google is not especially helpful.

― Bimlo Horsewagon became Wheelbarrow Horseflesh (aldo), Tuesday, 20 November 2018 20:37 (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

28% was for Remain in the EU, and it was the single biggest vote winner.

28% was for Remain in the EU, and it was the single biggest vote winner.

― glumdalclitch, Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:45 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

6/ Britain is completely divided on where to go from here:
Accept the deal - 16%
Seek new deal - 11%
Ref on terms of deal - 8%
No deal Brexit - 19%
Remain in EU - 28%https://t.co/qLzIYOnzjJ pic.twitter.com/gwMiXLHxEC
— YouGov (@YouGov) November 16, 2018

46% back some kind of brexit, 36% back a new ref or to remain in EU, 18% don't know or want something else. a resounding victory for remaining in the EU #FBPEU