one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Art of politics

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“The future of the country and our relationship with Europe is at stake. This deal gives us no voice, no votes, no MEPs, no commissioner.” #RemainerNow pic.twitter.com/uNNbQJywp4

— Property Spotter (@PropertySpot) November 17, 2018

Westminster voting intentiomn:

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 36% (-5)
UKIP: 8% (+2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @OpiniumReseach, 14 Nov
Chgs. w/ 11 Oct

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 17, 2018

polls schmolls and all that, but one for the "imagine if Labour had a real leader" crowd!

that crowd think that a real leader who promises to cancel brexit and not tax anyone too much would be at 60% in the polls

like the manifesto of that party polling lower than UKIP!

exactly!

I might be wrong, if there was a 2019 election, I feel like that poll is where we'd be at going into the election campaign, but possibly a slightly bigger share going to UKIP from the Tories.

It might be a bad assumption, but I assume the far right brexit wingnuts amongst the conservative voters are much more implacable and more likely to elope to UKIP than the Labour ones. But this might be wrong!

I was just about to post that a pollster on Newsnight last night said that Labour Leave voters seem to be more likely to regret voting Leave than Tory Leave voters - this despite the endless media campaign to paint Leave voters as being exclusively Labour voting proles from Oop North.

going to be extremely good when labour take a shedload of seats off the SNP next time round

get Gary Anderson in to replace Richard Leonard!

It’s never wise to pay too much attention to polls but that one was taken on the 14th, so you’d imagine they have further to fall.

FBPE types do think a leader with their beliefs would be on 60%+, how this should be when attitudes haven’t changed much and their campaigning seems to extend to shouting at Leave voters and going on about how stupid they are, I have no idea. Any big changes to be made are from Leave voters - not necessarily from attracting them but if they decide to withdraw support from the Tories. That could decide a lot of Con/Lab and Con/Lib Dem seats.

I was reading that Fintan O’ Toole piece in the guardian yesterday which is pretty good and was fascinated by the coverage of the referendum in 1975, because the successful pro Europe campaign made the emotional argument, not the technocratic one:

One of these stories was that the catastrophic experience of the first half of the 20th century carried two lessons that must never be forgotten: unrestrained nationalism led to war, and Britain could not stand aside from the fate of Europe. As the historian Robert Saunders has shown, the successful pro-European campaigners in 1975 were both highly explicit and highly emotive in making these connections. For them, “the emphasis was on the horror of war, which had devoured millions of lives in the prosecution of national rivalries. Britain in Europe used the poppy, the flower of remembrance, in its literature, while its logo was a dove of peace.” Pro-Europe posters said “Nationalism kills” and “No more Civil Wars”. Another, published for the anniversary of victory in Europe, directly evoked the joy of that triumph and sought to channel it into a sense that the common market was the great reward for victory: “On VE Day we celebrated the beginnings of peace. Vote Yes to make sure we keep it.” Another poster read simply: “Forty million people died in two European wars this century. Better lose a little sovereignty than a son or daughter.”

I was also amused to see the picture of Barbara Castle campaigning for a leave vote, considering that she was used to attack Corbyn during the coup attempt by several Very Clever Twitter Centrists.

I was just about to post that a pollster on Newsnight last night said that Labour Leave voters seem to be more likely to regret voting Leave than Tory Leave voters

I didn’t see this but I did see a piece saying Labour leave voters are more likely to stay loyal, whereas a lot of Tory leave voters have returned to the fold from UKIP and are more likely to switch back. The UKIP vote was always mostly Tories.

my hunch... is that a core 8-10 points of their lead is an entrenched UKIP which will start leaking as the brexit may drives through softens
― ||||||||, Tuesday, 17 July 2018 16:41 (four months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The UKIP vote was always mostly Tories.

Oh yes, definitely, though the BBC et al spent most of the election campaign scouring Northern towns for examples of Labour voters switching to UKIP because Brexit and Corbyn and the obvious appeal to the doltish working classes of that cunt from Bootle whose name I've forgotten who was leader of UKIP and who, when I try to picture his face, I can only picture Sean Dyche.

Paul Nuttall. God, that feels like a million years ago. Remember when he was lying about having a friend at Hillsborough?

Paul Nuttall is the new leader of Ukip, as expected. Labour should be quaking at this development. Instead, it's focused on praising Castro

— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) November 28, 2016

Eternally funny.

Of course shite like that never affects the career progression of expert commentators like Sebastian Payne.

Indeed, bash the left enough and the only way you fail is up.

going to be extremely good when labour take a shedload of seats off the SNP next time round

― single bed mentality (||||||||), Saturday, November 17, 2018 12:38 PM (thirty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Except there's no indication they will in Scottish polling

That's true, it's far more likely to be the Tories.

Get Gary Anderson in to replace Richard Leonard!

lol Stephen Nolan just bullied Streeting into not ruling out a 3rd Brexit ref on 5 Live.

lol Streeting on the radio just now

liars, cunts, technocrats

can't believe that people don't wan't to do what they're told

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (-)
CON: 36% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via @ComRes, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ Sephttps://t.co/TicKpFW7jj

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 17, 2018

I know polls are mostly bollox until election conditions kick in and they have been predictably seesawing 4 pts either way for the last 16 months, but I get this genuine feeling the Tories have took irreversible damage here and are fucked!

never say that!!! x_x

personally i'm psyched for the enormous wave of intelligent rationnalism that poll predicts

Penny Mordaunt is the person to be genuinely worried about w/r/t leadership replacements or whatever. She's terrifyingly self-assured in that video that was doing the rounds where she gets interrupted on stage by the charity worker.

I was reading that Fintan O’ Toole piece in the guardian yesterday which is pretty good

i know things are bad but no no no no

Even if they deliver Brexit more-or-less successfully there's likely to be a collapse in the Tory vote because a high enough proportion of them are only voting Tory because of it. That's a major structural problem for them that they don't seem to have considered at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/labour-keir-starmer-force-amendments-block-no-deal-brexit

Anyone know if this is actually possible?

He seems to be proposing to put clauses in bills required in the event of no deal meaning they can't happen. Feels like it would be easier to just vote them all down.

So what would happen post-March if a no-deal bill couldn't be passed and no agreements could be passed either?

Seems like a good way of weeding out the Tory disaster capitalists (although I would argue that you merely have to check out a list of ERG Tories) and making sure they were framed that way to the public.

May really stammered when Sophy Ridge asked if she thought 48 MPs had sent in letters so can I point out that if he’d had enough, she’d get two days’ heads-up time. But I think she’d survive a no-confidence vote because all those taking the epistle are ERG.

I mentioned it before, but I think the US Bailout vote is the model we'll get here.

May's deal gets voted down, we get a couple of weeks with no ideas from anybody about the way forward and the economy tanking because of the uncertainty, May's deal gets put up again and passes.

I don't think there would even be a straight majority in a no confidence motion - Cons and the DUP will fall in line if the ERG are shown to be as much a minority as the 1922 cttee letters seem to show.

The Tories certainly will, the DUP will probably try to extort more money, or concessions in some other area, to fall into line.

If a politician speaks clearly and politely to a journalist this should not be the response.

Totally unwarranted and disrespectful. Why doesn't this happen to Dominic Raab and his colleagues? 🤔pic.twitter.com/QK8IhRZA8C

— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) November 18, 2018

get to see a brief flash of the real tough-guy Marr in action here, a lil' gimp who lets Aaron Banks run roughshod over him and then tries to verbally bully a female (and Labour of course) mp. Seriously hope the next stroke the snivelling little shit has takes him out of the game.

life peer rather than an mp

Not quite Boulton vs. Campbell but always good when these wankers let the mask slip.

I forgot she was a peer, doesn't look old enough!

Baroness Bertin was born in '78. So not the youngest peer by some margin.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/brexit-delusional-conmen-britain-never-never-land-eu

Good David Edgerton comment piece in today's Observer. He's a bit of a Fred Dibnah type historian and has an obsession with how wartime propaganda and wrong-minded declinism amongst it's chroniclers has caused a distorted view of the economic and military powerhouse the BE was. And he sees the bullshit of "Global Britain" and the "demented revivalism" of the likes of Boris and the Brexit crew as sort of the flipside of this coin.

Seems like a good way of weeding out the Tory disaster capitalists (although I would argue that you merely have to check out a list of ERG Tories) and making sure they were framed that way to the public.

True, although some would say the priority should be averting the disaster itself rather than showing up the disaster capitalists.

To that end, can you even legislate to prevent No Deal? Surely No Deal is something that happens after we hit the deadline whether the UK Parliament likes it or not?

You could perhaps legislate to extend Article 50 (assuming the EU allows that), for a second referendum (which would require the aforementioned extension anyway) or to revoke Article 50 altogether (which may not even be possible). It strikes me that all of these options would suddenly focus the mind of Brexit Tories and lead to the passing of May's deal anyway.

Hague said on Today during the week that he thinks they'll all vote for it, because it's probably the one shot at leaving whether they like the detail of the terms or not.

You need each and every one of them to vote for it and a big enough chunk of Labour rebels to offset the missing DUP votes. That seems like quite a big ask.

To that end a kind of No No Deal legislation or amendment would amount to a massive get-out-of-jail-free card for Labour MPs who would otherwise be labelled wreckers or precipitators of an economic crisis.

I fully expect there to be a decent number of Labour rebels, and I suspect a fair few SNP abstainers. It's one of the reasons I find the calls for a free vote baffling, or rather May's reticence to announce one because I think she's the biggest winner from it.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6401325/Wonga-City-advisers-set-enjoy-4-1m-bonanza-thousands-claimants-lose-out.html

lucrative biz is picking over the bones of a collapsed payday lender, well for all the usual parasitic scumbags of course.

xp I’m not sure how this follows with respect to other parties? A free vote only applies to the Tories; Corbyn has already indicated he’ll whip against it. It means only that if she imposes a three line whip and members of the Cabinet vote against it, she can sack them, rather than being powerless in the face of a big rebellion.

Labour whipping against a free vote is a very bad look for them. The notion of free voting is supposed to be about matters of conscience so adopting a 'we know best' approach would play very badly with the sort of floating voters Labour would need to attract.

I mean, imagine if this government could hold the moral high ground over you?