one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

if there's an election before conservatives negotiate brexit... labour swoop in and 'negotiate' continued membership of single market/CM (i.e. the softest possible brexits and as-close-as-possible to BRINO) ... that's the fairytale version

I have seen this fairytale on twitter but (even ignoring that there probably won't be a GE) not at all sure that's actually Labour's secret plan. obv they aren't going to tell us the secret plan as half of their voter base will hate it either way, but is there much to support it other than "people on twitter would like it to be true"?

it's a nice fairytale, though, I like it, of course, but I wouldn't put any faith in it even existing as a possibility

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told the Today programme this morning that Labour could secure a Commons majority for a compromise Brexit plan... Labour could seek support for an alternative agreement with the EU based on a permanent customs union and a “close collaborative relationship” with the single market.

McDonnell told the programme:

I think we can secure a majority. What is absolutely certain is that the government’s proposal won’t command a majority in the House of Commons.

Anyone having seen what happened in the House of Commons yesterday realises that the proposals that the prime minister brought forward will not command a majority and therefore there has to be some discussions. There has to be some movement.

You saw in the debate yesterday, and certainly some of the discussions that have taken place around the House of Commons, people have looked over the edge of a no-deal Brexit and realised it could be catastrophic for our economy.

I think our European partners also have looked over the edge of a no-deal Brexit and seen what an impact it could have on their economies.

So I think what is emerging within the House of Commons now is almost a unity platform to avoid a no deal, and therefore get down to serious discussions about what could construct a deal which would enable us to protect jobs and the economy.

I think that is beginning to emerge around the permanency of the customs union, the relationship with the single market.

McDonnell is also saying he believes this could be negotiated to incorporate some kind of opt-out on freedom of movement so I think we're still on Fantasy Island either knowingly or not

Still at least a general election will give us some final, clear answers on the electorate's real views on the EU and stabilise parliamentary democracy for future generations.

It's shit or get off the pot time for Labour and they're still sitting there, clean-arsed.

I love the way the bbc are trying to hang "the markets fear of a Corbyn government and raised corporation tax, nationalisation etc" on the plummeting value of sterling today in radio reports.

You don't need to be Warren Buffet to know that the markets fear no deal more than everything else combined. McDonnell has spent so much time in the City of late they're probably relaxed enough about him as Chancellor, especially when the alternative is economic collapse.

has it not been the known but unspoken labour position throughout this whole palaver? it's what makes the dim ramblings of marsan and co so infuriating.

talk noisily about having to 'honour the referendum result' to shore up the leave part of their coalition and not allow the tory party to cast them as wreckers. recently, they've had to start talking noisily about 'considering all options', as a concession to the overwhelmingly remain membership. I don't think they're really seriously considering a 'people's vote'.

labour are positioning as best they can to make the best of a bad situation and are ostensibly on the FBPE's side... but they recognise that you can't just reset things back to 2016 because, you know, politics. FBPE carping could have risked fucking things up if the labour leadership team weren't so canny

I wonder if anybody's done the maths on what kind of majority Labour would actually need to get a brexit not brexit deal thru parliament, factoring in potential fuckery from the Blairites still trying to refight the leadership election, possible SNP tactical refusal etc

Thanks |||||||| - that's a bit more definite than anything I'd seen but I do feel like there's still a lot of hedging going on, statements which imply SM+CU and statements which seemingly rule it out, plus deliberately woolly wording like "relationship with".

Obviously I understand why they have to do that! But, it's comforting to say "the fudge is to shore up the leave part of the coalition" but who am I to decide that the fudge isn't concocted for Remoany-if-we-have-to-leave-make-it-softies like myself? Seems like there's a bit of "we're too clever for a fudge so the fudge is definitely for the other lot" (not here but on twitter I mean).

Well, there are a lot of ~events~ to get through before it would matter anyway; perhaps all will become clearer, if it even comes to that.

(thoughts to self re my previous declaration that a GE is improbable - I guess with the DUP's statement and the summoning of MPs the chances have gone up a lot since even y/day evening when I was last thinking through the options - in fact I haven't checked the news for an hour so it's possible one is already inevitable and I'm the only person here who doesn't know...)

Meanwhile, to lower the tone, the following headline is the lead article in this morning's daily German newsblast email from Deutsche Welle:

Theresa May und der Brexit-Deal wanken

Huh huh.

(stagger or falter, apparently)

This is all with the caveat that things could change very quickly, we're approaching a major political and economic shock and in those circumstance The Will Of The People can change very suddenly.

"THERESA MAY.. I COMMAND YOU TO.."

labour are positioning as best they can to make the best of a bad situation and are ostensibly on the FBPE's side... but they recognise that you can't just reset things back to 2016 because, you know, politics.

Not 100% convinced this is true but I think there are divisions and faultlines all over the Parliamentary party, and definitely not on a straight left-right axis, as you can tell by the fact that Chuka Umunna and Yvette Cooper are on different sides of the argument. Not convinced at all that Corbyn himself is a secret FBPE type but given the opinions of the party membership I doubt it matters much.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/B5BE/production/_104362564_daily-star.jpg

if LAB are saying "limits on free movement" to firm up a snap election win and then "oops turns out no can do" once they're negotiating, their resultant internal rebel pressures post-victory are p microscopic compared to CON's -- and they're already operating against such a massive media headwind that it's turnabout that won't make much difference to coverage

(of course it's not a great move bcz it amplifies the hostile environment)

of course this may not be their plan: i think they've also very deliberately picked a "strategic doubletalk" approach all along, meaning that the massed jolyons etc etc aren't strictly totally wrong -- you can fairly easily cherrypick to firm up a 'hard brexit jezza' secret plan if you decide to do this, and it's notable that it's often JC himself who leads on it

(is this superb tactical navigation, the true core of the bad plan, or just muddling along semi-toxic chumplike? who knows? will it work? who knows who knows? we are on the banter timeline and may yet see EMERGENCY PRIME MINISTER A.C.GRAYLING AND THE CABINET OF ALL THE TALENTS, DANGERS AND WEAPONS emerging to fuck things up even worse)

I don't think they're really seriously considering a 'people's vote'.

It’s conference policy and Corbyn emailed members to say that if no other options succeed, the party supports a vote.

Gordon Brown on Corbyn's Brexit stance: "Jeremy used to remind me when I was in government that we are always bound by conference motions"

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) November 12, 2018

xp agreed re doublespeak theory. It’s also helped by Corbyn being a known opponent of the EU, whereas the Tories have the inverse with May.

However, none of the windmills banging on about tgisvhave ever thought to reach out to/build bridges with members of the shadow cabinet more aligned to their views.

EMERGENCY PRIME MINISTER A.C.GRAYLING AND THE CABINET OF ALL THE TALENTS, DANGERS AND WEAPONS

It’s a total indictment of how much time I spend on twitter that I could think of about ten other twitter dangers immediately for senior cabinet positions.

If we cannot get a General Election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.

last sub-clause just felt like a sop to me

i think that's a good summary of what we think we know about where Labour is now, mark.

how long has dawn foster been an ilxor

On BBC Breakfast shortly talking about the season finale of the United Kingdom

— Dawn Foster (@DawnHFoster) November 16, 2018

Brexit latest: Tory MPs are writing letters of no confidence in Theresa May as if they were at relationship counselling pic.twitter.com/71UbGJK4JA

— Matthew Champion (@matthewchampion) November 16, 2018

xp the rumoured Game of Thrones finale has nothing on this.

for the Tory Brexiters to win they have to ensure that one of their own makes it to the last two of a leadership election - who are they gonna line up behind?

"in order for our Party to survive in Government it is imperative we find a new leader who can command the respect of the DUP"

if you find yourself writing this sentence then you should really think about your priorities imo

these letters to penthouse fkn suck imo

Stop stealing my season finale joke you fuckers.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says

It really is difficult to overstate quite how pointlessly, needlessly destructive the Cameron Premiership was.

seriously, him and Osborne should be executed.

The ministers he met – including Esther McVey, who was the work and pensions secretary until Thursday, when she resigned over the Brexit deal – were almost entirely dismissive of criticisms of welfare changes and universal credit, he said. Instead they described critics as political saboteurs, or said they failed to understand how it worked.

another one that was already on the list.

xxp sad lol that tory vote has increased at each general election since 2010.

season finale lol like a tv show

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/11/commons-confidential-red-ed-plots-comeback it’s the kind of season finale where previous stars come back unexpectedly

"sad lol that tory vote has increased at each general election since 2010."

and some of these fools still complain that they can't quietly get on with annihilating the NHS because of the whining centre-left electorate!

"cuts so profound that key elements of the post-war social contract, devised by William Beveridge more than 70 years ago, “have been swept away.”

"austerity is over"

[belated (and indeed bleated) thanks to nv and mdc and more for all the replies to my question last night - almost immediately after posting a torrent of work-related metaphoric diarrhoea was delivered upon me, so couldn't engage then, but appreciate the food for thought and perspective]

You got the runs.

[golf clap]

Speaking of the runs

#nicktimothy is what occurs when the Tory Party has a wet fart.

— Harry Leslie Smith (@Harryslaststand) November 15, 2018

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/09/04/00/37E0F98A00000578-0-Bearded_Nick_Timothy_at_10_Downing_Street-a-37_1472946584847.jpg

I'm so glad that guy has shaved his beard, he was fucking it up for the rest of us

seems telling that given all the noise from the ERG they're still clearly struggling to wring 48 no confidence letters out

*amaze and entertain your friends by fashioning a matt-style cock-and-balls from a handkerchief!!*

xp

Typical fearless Tory rebellion.

it's almost like this so called "centre ground" of like-minded sensible politicians is more an idea than an actuality.

lol the far right tory rebels are just as useless as the "moderates".

poor bastards just can't agree on the best way to fuck over the needy and enrich themselves in the process

Perhaps people will go back to treating JRM like the clown he obviously is now rather than some kind of evil genius?

Amber Rudd to DWP? Amber Rudd who grew up in... Knightsbridge?

She's shown a thirst for the blood of the poor, that'll serve her well.

Maybe deport some of those pesky benefits claimants.