one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

I don't know if the Pretty Things are still going but someone better warn to keep an eye on Phil May for the next 24 hours.

who do we actually think is a possible candidate for raising an EDM

The issue is that there’s no obvious front runner to replace her afaict. And another Remainer is going to face the same issues.

edm's been in trouble since avicii died imo

ILM creep.

So if the 1922 Committee get the right number of letters following the ERG meeting we get a leadership election and (presumably) DD or similar leading us to No Deal.

I don't think that's quite it - if they get the letter then there's a (Tory-only) confidence vote on May, if she wins that then she's safe for a year, if she loses that then it's a leadership election in which she cannot stand.

Possibly the only positive thing you can say about May is that you know exactly where you stand on her - I'm not sure if either wing of the party would relish rolling the dice on who would replace her.

And quite apart from that you'd be adding one more big loud distraction when there's work to be done, which the country and your colleagues would not thank you for. I'm not sure who would carry on as PM during the leadership election?

edm's been in trouble since avicii died imo

Society is in the Guetta.

^^^^

And quite apart from that you'd be adding one more big loud distraction when there's work to be done

Exactly which aspects of their behaviour over the last few years make you think they're suddenly going to start caring about this now?

lols!

Fair.

"Rees-Mogg says, if 48 letters do not go in, that will not be good for him. It is not much good if you lead and no one follows, he says."

What an absolute tool.

Also a new personal hero for me:

This press conference is a bit awkward because the hundreds of journalists and passers-by can only hear shouty Stop Brexit man and his loudhailer. pic.twitter.com/OX7L4LoktD

— Joey D'Urso (@josephmdurso) November 15, 2018

eddie marsan ditched twitter in favour of the loud hailer is it

I don't think that's quite it - if they get the letter then there's a (Tory-only) confidence vote on May, if she wins that then she's safe for a year, if she loses that then it's a leadership election in which she cannot stand.

Yes sorry, was skipping past her winning the confidence vote because her doing so will just lead us into the impasse of her standing by her plan until parliament accepts it or someone raises an EDM.

The US House vote of 2008 on the bailout was raised as an example this morning, and Merkins excuse me if I don't get the details exactly right, but it failed on first submission and the markets went apeshit so it was resubmitted with very minor tweaks and passed to stabilise the country's economy. Wouldn't be out of the question to see that happen here.

17m ago Leadsom tells MPs she's not resigning

If only they'd asked first.

xp sorry what do you mean when you say EDM

Itv are back on door duty?

Early Day Motion. The only routes to a motion of no confidence in a government (hence what would be required for a general election) are failure to agree supply of funds (in other words a budget, and what 'suppky and confidence' refers to) or by a specific Early Day Motion calling for a vote of confidence in the Government which, if upheld, would trigger a GE.

Outside of this, all that is being discussed is a potential Con leadership battle which would presumably coalesce around May and a Brexiteer e.g. Boris or DD.

She can’t run if she loses the vote!

These would normally raised by the Opposition benches in such circumstances (although it might just about be credible in a spectacular act of self-immolation for a Brexiteer to do so should May survive either the vote or a leadership election) so who would actually take the plunge to try and dissolve Parliament - presumably after any vote on the May deal was lost - as it doesn't feel to me to be a likely Labour move.

xxp that’s what I thought you meant but afaik this is not the case. They are very rarely debated and iirc the only two routes to an early election after the fixed terms parliament act was passed are losing a motion of confidence or the government bringing a motion to dissolve parliament which must be passed by 2/3 of MPs. I thiiiiink the budget being voted down no longer triggers an election automatically but it would be really difficult for a government to carry on if it can’t get its legislation through the house.

Most edms are stuff like this: https://www.parliament.uk/edm/2003-04/1255

http://laoblogger.com/images/hd-big-s-clipart-1.jpg https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/mred/images/a/a4/Mister-ed-o.gif

xpost to AF and myself

I now don't believe there is a Tory-only vote stage, I think the 15% dissatisfaction letter threshold goes straight to leadership competition which gets resolved to a head-to-head and then put to members.

gyac - agreed but the route to the motion of confidence is by raising it as an EDM proposing one.

My point is that there still needs to be a positive action by someone to try and dissolve Parliament, it won't automatically happen if May (or whoever) loses the vote.

Okay, but do you have any basis for believing that? Literally everything I can find says otherwise.

Most simplistic version is the Guardian one from before the chaos started

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/how-would-the-conservatives-trigger-a-leadership-contest-against-theresa-may

xp I looked into this and I stand corrected but this is reliant on the government giving it time - lol - or the opposition and that means waiting til next opposition day? Having said that, the government has been abstaining from lots of opposition motions all session so they might try to argue the vote doesn’t mean anything.

I’m so lost, what is the point of contention about the Tory leadership vote?

Actually Andrew I've found a detailed description of Hague's policy for 1922 cttee derived challenges band you're right - IDS was prevented from standing under the rules therein. Mea culpa.

Tory minister tells me if Brexiteers vote down Deal -he and others will openly campaign for a second referendum and to stay in EU.

— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) November 15, 2018

ah they talk a big game

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/michael-gove-offered-brexit-secretary-job/

Cocksure move if true

it will be a castor-aphy for rural flood defences if Gove takes the Brexit post and Project Beaver is abandoned.

castor-ophe !!! shit phone ruined my shit joke!

stephen_collins_gove.jpg, now more than ever.

"a possessed ventriloquist's dummy, carved out of the Yew Tree they named operation Yew Tree after" as a mediocre comic once said.

Theresa May press conference at 1700 apparently...

otm both

ft. MC Distant Heckler

budd_dwyer.gif

Tory minister tells me if Brexiteers vote down Deal -he and others will openly campaign for a second referendum and to stay in EU.

This would be all-out civil war but a threat to extend Article 50 or call a second referendum might have helped whip a few Brexiters into line.

if you limp over the finish line, 52/48, then you don't get to have your hard brexit. do these dolts not appreciate that?

i think it's fair to say by now that no, those dolts do not appreciate that

Top mischief from Donald Tusk.
He tells reporters in Brussels: "The EU is prepared for a final deal with the United Kingdom in November.
"We are also prepared for a no-deal scenario but of course we are best prepared for a no-Brexit scenario."
NO-BREXIT SCENARIO

— Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) November 15, 2018

The British public does not back Theresa May's Brexit deal

Support - 19%
Oppose - 42%
Don't know - 39%

42% of Leave voters oppose the deal, as do 47% of Remain votershttps://t.co/DLVwqFaB0x pic.twitter.com/Lch2F0ICgy

— YouGov (@YouGov) November 15, 2018

if you limp over the finish line, 52/48, then you don't get to have your hard brexit. do these dolts not appreciate that?

sometimes I like to imagine the tabloid headlines in the parallel universe where a 52/48 break in the other direction was declared a stunning mandate for the hardest possible Remain, i.e. join Euro, Schengen, no more rebate, start pushing for an EU army right now, etc

it would clearly be the will of the people and everyone would have known what they were voting for

anyway I don't really know if today's news is good or bad in the long run, like I no longer know if I think May's withdrawal agreement might be the best of bad options (obv I am the biggest boringest Remoaner ever and so it would still be nice to have no Brexit or stay in SM as well as CU but there's no clear path to either of those outcomes, at least not nearly so clear as the possibility for everyone to fuck around for 4 more months until we crash out), so I will just settle for the fact that today has been quite funny

winner takes ball

Be interested to see which aspects of the deal Leave voters generally oppose.

has anyone been keeping a count of the number of saboteurs that theresa may has successfully crushed to date?

she hasn't even managed to successfully dent any afaict