one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

BDExit

The Labour Party does not oppose Brexit though.

Labour’s position is that it doesn’t oppose the result of the referendum, for the simple reason that explicitly doing so would see the Tories and media united in condemning them as anti-democratic and pinning the blame for whatever happened on them. The fact we’re even talking about labour being blamed for a no-deal outcome is testimony to this.

Their real Brexit position is the six tests, designed to push for the softest Brexit, and this deal compromised a lot but it isn’t it. So Corbyn will almost certainly whip to vote down the deal, as will the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid. If there’s a chance the government could fall, labour can’t be voting to keep them in office, never mind voting for what is a pretty shit deal.

Last night the PM admitted that the deal was better than no deal, which has always been true but only seems ok to say with the spectre of no deal fast approaching. I wouldn’t want to predict what will happen next, but it may not even be up to Labour. If TM is ousted (unlikely) or resigns (more probable but still unlikely), it’s pretty certain her successor would be a hard Brexiteer, and all that person would have to do is wait out the clock to crash out.

It’s a total mess but the government brought this on themselves and they will be the ones to blame.

Also worth noting that TM spoke to Foster, Sturgeon and Corbyn pretty late last night so who knows...

Oh, and...

Just concluded initial conversation with Theresa May. Will resume conversation with Simon Coveney in the morning.

— Mary Lou McDonald (@MaryLouMcDonald) November 14, 2018

Sorry, last one from me. Just saw this from Corbyn:

This is a bad deal which isn't in the interests of the whole country. #WithdrawalAgreement #BrexitChaos pic.twitter.com/vfUK2DgGUY

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) November 14, 2018

no deal seems most likely now. it doesn’t matter how she reconfigures this deal (if she even does), there will be another chorus of caterwauling regardless. the only deal that can carry the commons would rent the tories in two so it’s either no deal or a conservative party split

This guy I've never heard of's resignation letter is well weird. You've resigned after four months, mate, you're not getting a carriage clock for a lifetime achievement.

With much sadness and regret I have submitted my letter of resignation as a Northern Ireland Minister to the Prime Minister. A copy of my letter is attached.
It has been a joy and privilege to serve in the Northern Ireland Office and I will always cherish the fondest memories. pic.twitter.com/SN8j4OwhYD

— Shailesh Vara MP (@ShaileshVara) November 15, 2018

it’s pretty certain her successor would be a hard Brexiteer

Not so sure about this tbh, they’d still have to be nominated by the MPs.

no deal seems most likely now

Apparently Matt Hancock has already been out clarifying that ‘or not leave at all’ was just a turn of phrase, obviously no-one wants that.

Also I’m reminded of post-Chequers, when there was talk of more big resignations after Boris and Davis, and it was pebbles of the size of Mr Vara - either there’s a properly planned build up this time, or that’s it (or he wanted 15 seconds in the news before the big names)

xp the 15 seconds are his fondest memories!

Watched a bunch of people get ready to save their PM at the slightest hint of remaining.

Still can't see no deal - consequences for the economy and europe could be a 2008-type event. In any case, how much has been worried put and planned in that scenario? It would be a gamble.

*worked out and planned

Well there was a 2008 type event only 10 years ago and it gave some tories the chance to do more austerity so they may have fond memories

Raab has gone!

lol

Raab-ing, one out

all possible resolutions look impossible one way or other other so an inadvertent no deal could happen

- "just stop brexit". not likely really;
- "people's vote". lol
- "elect a new government". what would the tory party brexit policy be in its manifesto?
- "border in the irish sea". arlene won't buy it
- "indefinite customs union". splits the conservative party

I'm not sure that British MPs are at all prepared for the fury that will be unleashed on them when people realise what no deal is actually like.

The meaning of 'Brexit Means Brexit' had finally become clear.

"Brexit", that is the conditions you want after leaving,can only be met as a result of "Brexit", that is the deal you can negotiate to get those conditions.

Brexit means Brexit.

May's negotiated solution has taken the key elements of all sides and come up with the most centrist of all answers.

• No longer subject to the CAP and CFP
• No longer having to accept freedom of movement and able to prioritise skill sets
• GFA maintained
• UK retained
• Route map and agreement on bespoke trade deal to mirror current arrangements wherever possible on goods
• Separation of services from goods regulations
• Continued participation in security arrangements

The trouble is, the parties opposing it (on both sides) sound like they've never actually been in a negotiation in their lives and hubris leads them to believe that of course they would get 100% of their demands with no consequences or compensating effect because of course they would be stronger negotiators and the other side would do exactly what they wanted. This is actually nowhere best exemplified than in the first Labour 'test' - "provide the exact same benefits", which could clearly never be met.

It was political suicide to agree to the "meaningful vote" because what does that actually entail, or rather what is the upshot? Going back to the EU like an Apprentice candidate rejected in week 2 for trying to get an extra 10p off in a supermarket and saying "oh, go on, you know you want to get less out of it"? No deal? Negotiating an extension to the negotiations to get our shit in one sock? A GE? A party leadership contest? Because the reality is that none of them sound credible.

This is a total shitshow that could never have been delivered (and, assuming the vote fails, still won't).

May's words yesterday were exactly what they seemed and directed at the people they seemed to be:

Brexiteers - it's this or no brexit. William Hague made a similar point on Today yesterday, that they should realise it's probably their one chance to get brexit because if it gets kicked into the long grass here it will always be too difficult to do again and people will point at the past two years as good reasons why it's impossible.

Remainers - it's this or no deal. Vote it down and there's a good chance the euro-sceptics will sieze control of the Tory party, and if you can't force a GE and get the EU to put the process on the back burner then we'll crash out unless we rely on EU largesse.

It's not inconsistent to see them both as possibilities. The danger is if either side sees the statement as hardening their own faith that they are the true way.

Not so sure about this tbh, they’d still have to be nominated by the MPs.

At least one will make the final two; there aren’t enough MPs to block them all.

in other words lol we're all gonna die xp

In the apparent absence of any plan for what happens when the deal gets voted down, it does appear to be a choice between a deal that satisfies no one and no deal at all. The only vaguely responsible thing to do at this stage would be to vote the deal through

Its between completely obvious that this would happen since last summer and May takes a lot of the blame for being deluded enough to think she could go ahead with it, and the Tories for not challenging her earlier. May also built up a lot of the hubris during the first year of her premiership, pretending no deal was better than a bad deal etc. I don't think Labour MPs will be thanked for it in the long run either.

One possible route, which would humiliate May even if there were enough time, would be for Labour to provide their support in exchange for major concessions. Obviously there are hundreds of reasons why this won't happen but it would at least be funny.

I'm not sure I see what's actually missing from that.

This is actually nowhere best exemplified than in the first Labour 'test' - "provide the exact same benefits", which could clearly never be met.

That’s a feature, not a bug.

It’s really hard to conceive of this mess as some masterpiece of triangulation when it comes from a PM who laid down red lines that excluded many better options and refused to budge; who literally went on tv saying no deal is better than a bad deal as though the spectre of no deal should have been made to sound acceptable at any point; and who literally accused the EU of trying to interfere with the general election!

I've had to laugh at all the talk/fear of regulatory alignment because it surely comes from people that have never actually done international business.

All deals generally get done according to the regulations of the country doing the purchasing. It's as simple as that. If you want to sell into the EU, you meet their regulations. If you want to sell to the USA you meet theirs. If you want to sell to Japan etc etc.

The only key EU difference is that by functional alignment it can be taken as read that the regulations are met. To sell to the EU after Brexit you'll still need to meet the conditions of the common rule book whether we're in a formal alignment or not - that's just the cost of doing business with other markets. The issue, such as it is, is the expectation on the purchaser for ensuring the terms of the contract are met.

So really this is only an import issue and not an export one.

xp this is a lot more probable than Labour voting the deal through as is.

- "people's vote". lol

I know that some of you have this affection for British Democracy++, despite everything that happens with it, but we are broadcasting now from the sleepy German town of Lol, and have been for 18 months - that it would be ridiculous doesn't seem much of an objection.

*cough*

Who do we think is going to tank it or flounce out? I'm going with Fox, Leadsom, Mordaunt and Gavin Williamson. Gove to stick around despite making it clear how unhappy he is.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 16:42 (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Sounds about right

― two Barongs don't make a Wight (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 13 November 2018 16:44 (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Raab.

― ROCK MUSIC (Tom D.), Tuesday, 13 November 2018 16:49 (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

a parliament that can't agree the terms of exit is unlikely to capable of agreeing the terms of any referendum

Gove to follow?

The single market.

That’s a feature, not a bug.

And neither are part of Brexit or Brexit , or conceivably could be, so are an answer to a completely different question.

And some of us consider no FOM a bad thing, so.

The above and this go some way to explaining my point further.

The starting point is that Brexit exists as a result of the referendum. As a result of that a solution will only ever be a compromise which is almost entirely within the gift of the EU.

So what would you be prepared to give up and/or pay to get the single market, FOM and the "exact same benefits"?

Raab means raven in Old German iirc. A scavenger and carrion-eater.

The only other sensible option to voting the deal through is to May to request an extension to Article 50 and take the backlash or resign and then call an election.

xxp you’ve missed my point. The six tests aren’t passable and there is no political arrangement that will satisfy them.

With Raab gone this is getting academic now; deal is effectively dead. We’re going to be in a polling box of one kind or another soon surely. An A50 extension request is also surely in the offing

A50 ext is the only thing that makes sense right now.

Environment Secretary Michael Gove has cancelled his planned visit to a farming conference in Yorkshire

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 15, 2018

I think the Tories will do everything they possibly can to avoid a General Election and they don't need to call one. This has been the flaw in the Labour plan the whole time. Replacing May with someone sufficiently Brexity is the only aim.

You'd think he could have told them earlier. Xpost

gyac xpost

Ah, get it. Which reinforces my belief it was always undeliverable.

The six tests are a way for labour to oppose Brexit without being seen to “oppose democracy” or w/e and would result in BRINO basically.

Replacing May with someone sufficiently Brexity is the only aim.

Now we’re in squeaky bum time, though, who’s going to be the one to deliver a crash out?

yes, labour realise they need to change a lot of ppl's minds and take them on a journey and the tests are part of that

a parliament that can't agree the terms of exit is unlikely to capable of agreeing the terms of any referendum

We've got the terms today, 585 pages of them on one side, "nah" on the other.

Conservative MP Anne Marie Morris has told Sky News she has submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May to the 1922 Committee

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 15, 2018

The Pound is dipping sharply again.

ffs I'm going on holiday tomorrow

McVey gone!

I’m going to Russia today - have already lost three rubles!

McVey our.

McVey gone!

ifonlyamirite?