2018 american midterm elections (national edition)

Seems like Donnelly might be in a tight spot. Everything else seems roughly in line with expectations

Lmao Manchin is on the ropes apparently

I early voted in 2016, and had to sit in a room full of working class Trumpsters for 2 hours. I returned to voting in person this time, and of course being a suburban Republican precinct walked to the table, handed my DL, and was in a voting booth within 45 sec.

No elections were remotely competitive, but there was an important constitutional amendment referendum, that might give Louisiana less racist unanimous jury decisions, like the rest of the country.

Shalala Wins!

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn),

some good news! a house seat that has turned from R to D

Also a seat the RNC spent $1.5m on

Wexton also projected to beat Comstock in VA 10, so another flip from R to D

It looked grim for a while.

538 House tracker went from 7/8 chance of D winning back down to 6/7. -___-

it's at 11/12 right now

btw it should be illegal to report percent share of the vote if the returns are below, say, 20%. I feel strongly about this

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 6, 2018 7:45 PM (twenty-one minutes ago)

on a related note

it's at 11/12 right now

I'm seeing 4/5! But then again you are in the future.

now down to 4/5 indeed

uh can we not watch that

I voted by my so watching that is my participation by proxy for today.

*voted by mail

God damn it kevin, what the fuck.

I object, for the record

Also at the risk of death by k3v, Beto is up 59-40 with < 1% reporting.

Sheldon Whitehouse is already projected as winner in RI with 1% reporting

Yes please let's post more early projections

i vow to never again watch the cursed needle

thats prob bexar county early vote results

http://home.bexar.org/el45a.htm

I get why they report odds but as you get up into the 80s and 90s as percentages the odds changes feel more drastic than they are. You’re talking about like 2% shifts. Posting them here is probably not useful.

{xp sleeve I was just pointing out that the percentage of votes tallied doesn't necessarily correlate with statistical projections, it depends on the race)

i hate florida

No no I'm in favor of anything that annoys k3vin "everything I don't like should be illegal" k3lller, carry on

hi!

Xp

So, heard there's a big election tonight

John Cox is neck and neck with Gavin Newsom in CA GOV.

Goddamn it, I totally lied about peacing out earlier 'cause I keep poking into this thread when I'm supposed to be watching goddamn Ghost Protocol and having a good ol' apolitical time instead of actively courting another goddamn panic attack, but okay now I think I'm going to watch Enter the Ninja and that should keep me sufficiently distracted until this beer finally knocks my old ass out. Everything sounds good, though, so...maybe we're gonna be okay. Maybe. Y'all are still here and you're a bunch of good eggs, so that bodes well, right? Sure it does. Okay, time to go watch ninjas and further foster a fun workday hangover.

John Cox is neck and neck with Gavin Newsom in CA GOV.

― Captain Hardchord (Leee), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 5:22 PM

lol

shalalalalalalala la la di da

la di da

I’m going to this fuckin election night party that a friend set up but I’m gonna try to convince people to play Dasharez0ne’s card game for as long as possible.

Kind of flying blind a bit right now, but I basically see the Democrats hitting expectations well-educated suburbs but the GOP outperforming expectations in more conservative areas

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2018

Getting serious PTSD here

i hope this doesn't distract mr. trump's international friends from helping out tonight

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/415258-russian-oligarch-who-bought-mansion-from-trump-arrested-on

Fuckin Florida holy shit

not even sure what Nate Cohn means by "more conservative areas" so I'm going to ignore that tweet

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

Is Gillum really going to lose this? Did not think that would be close but he’s down by 80k

hope Gillum isn't going to lose

Bob Menendez is projected to win in NJ

The fivethirtyeight tracker has made me so anxious that I don't reckon I'll sleep now, and one of their staff has put up a note saying "the model is being too aggressive" fucks sake, why do I read it, I am such an idiot.

Florida better turn around in these late tallied votes

Haha, back in September I wen on Twitter and @-messaged the Republican running against Marcia Fudge in OH-11, after she made comments to the press that Cuyahoga County had only been able to pass an LGBTQIA protection ordinance because there were too many illiterate blacks who don't understand the Bible. I told her how much I was looking forward to voting against her. I just went on there to gloat that she had lost a full percentage of the vote from her 2016 run and she had blocked me. Snowflakes!

Makes more sense than my RUSSIANS HACKED 538 mental thrashing.

NICE, ELIZA.

Broward is 50% in and Gillum has a 200K lead in those votes. Right now he's down 80k.

a couple other counties have yet to get close to finished where he's winning handily.

we'll see...

Carville on MSNBC just now: "It's not going to be a wave election."

— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty) November 7, 2018

Fuck this stupid country

Just got kicked out of Steve King’s election night party!

King’s son Jeff, who is the campaign chairman, told me to leave the building.

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) November 7, 2018

When I asked why, he said to refer to a statement given to @DMRegister, also banned from tonight’s party:

“We are not granting credentials to the Des Moines Register or any other leftist propaganda media outlet with no concern for reporting the truth.”

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) November 7, 2018

What buttrods!

Jfc will y'all that are overreacting to small morsels of data just stfu.