US Politics, October 2018: next week will be even longer

Pittsburgh, watch your flank! Trump goes straight for the flank!

fucking rad

xp

Yes, very cool. A corner is being turned.

This is why he only goes to golf courses and his own rallies

Whomp whomp

Even Hoft calls no joy, takes down Wohl's debunked post smearing Mueller, and writes in its place he's looking into allegations against his own contributor. https://t.co/i0lnWi9DxM pic.twitter.com/TGtaPmQxgI

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) October 30, 2018

Gateway Pundit, which published the Jacob Wohl-backed dossier filled with wild accusations about Mueller, is back-pedaling fast. They've taken down the file and are now trying to claim Mueller making a criminal referral to the FBI is an abuse of government power. pic.twitter.com/71uWGQjSfI

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) October 30, 2018

i'm not sure about the reputation of polling firm Change Research, but their new poll has steve king up by just ONE point

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413787-poll-steve-king-leading-dem-opponent-by-1-point

even the RNCC chair recently condemned steve king for being a racist bastard, so hopefully something is shifting

those change research polls are discussed here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-update-heres-why-we-need-polls-in-red-districts-they-might-not-be-so-red/

Well, online pollster Change Research heeded our call, and late Monday night, it tweeted out poll results from 12 moderately red districts. In seven of those districts, it was the first poll we’ve seen all cycle long. Some of the polls, like those in the Illinois 16th and Ohio 2nd, lined up pretty well with other indicators in our forecast, so they didn’t move the needle too much. But other polls opened up the possibility that certain districts might be more competitive than we realized.

Bear in mind that this is only one pollster’s read on these races. Founded after the 2016 election, Change Research is still pretty new as far as pollsters go, and it currently has a C+ pollster rating. So it’s hardly the gold standard. But its online methodology has an upside — namely, that it’s cheap, so it’s easy for Change Research to poll marginal districts. And some data is better than nothing. Here’s where our forecast changed the most as a result of these polls:

Based on the number of retweets, the most shocking topline came in the Iowa 4th. Controversial GOP Rep. Steve King led Democrat J.D. Scholten just 45 percent to 44 percent. That margin was way worse for King than in previous polls, and his chances of winning plunged 19 percentage points in the Lite version of our model, which just looks at polls.

also silver has a thread on them starting here:

Except that previous polling had shown King up "only" 6-10 points, before the most recent round of controversies kicked in and before the Democrat had a chance to take advantage of his 3:1 fundraising advantage. He's probably a favorite but the poll is entirely plausible. https://t.co/jwbRX7WOdo

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2018

Compared to the same time period in '14, voters under the age of 30 in Texas have increased their turnout by 508% (not a typo). Voters over the age of 65 in TX increased their turnout by 96%.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 30, 2018
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, October 30, 2018 2:48 PM (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Can I trust this source?

Moodles is legit imo

xp thanks caek! Cautiously optimistic.

it appears that the pittsburgh protesters have succeeded in keeping trump away, at least for now:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/watch-live-protest-against-trumps-visit-to-pittsburgh-grows-in-size/#.W9jTJCCnh4s.twitter

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 31 October 2018 9:56 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Proud of my yinzers

Ha I was wondering if it could be a 'look how obviously ridiculous this tweet is I can't even'.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/justice-kavanaugh-declines-600000-raised-gofundme-campaign-204550626.html

According to Hawkins, the fundraiser was inspired by a conversation he had with a friend about GoFundMe pages that were set up for Ford during Kavanaugh’s contentious confirmation hearings.

“This is a funny story which might be a bit too risqué for you to print … I was talking to a woman and … she was like, ‘Christine Blasey Ford has these GoFundMes up; I wish someone would do a GoFundMe for Brett Kavanaugh so that when this is over, he could sue that bitch,’” Hawkins recounted in a phone conversation on Tuesday.

Hawkins said he assumed Kavanaugh would not sue, but he figured the judge might need money for a lawyer or security.

“So I figured, hey, let’s do a GoFundMe — and that’s actually how it got started, as crazy as that sounds,” said Hawkins.

incredible use of the "a friend said" narrative device here

the Wohl crew makes Gordon Liddy look like a mastermind

but i must admit idgaf

me too KM. i have enjoyed your tweets on him. i sent scholten a small donation march and have been following the race since then. he's made great progress in an insanely red district without compromising much on policy afaict, so happy to send some more last month (the other race i did that for is jess king in pa-10 who is a longer shot but would be a great represenative https://theintercept.com/2018/09/15/jess-king-pennsylvania-lancaster-stands-up/). i'm done for the year, but if i weren't, and there were more than a week to go, they would both get more from me.

p.s. i am 100% certain scholten will disappoint us if he wins, but come on it's steve king.

p.p.s. if you feel like donating, it's honestly kind of late to make a difference (hoos correct me if i'm wrong) imo, so one thing you might want to do is put it to one side and send it to the inevitable mississipi senate runoff later in november.

p.s. since silver mentioned maxine waters in that thread as a poor analog to steve king, there is one way in which those congressional race are similar. both have nazis on the ballot:

In 2017 I went to a county meeting where a public commenter said Jews were bringing immigrants into the US. Same thing the synagogue shooter said.

Two people from LA GOP stood and applauded.

Both of them now work for Omar Navarro, the Republican running against Maxine Waters.

— Slays Stabbinport 🤺 (@hayesdavenport) October 27, 2018

discussed upthread. better than down 508% but doesn't mean much unless you compare absolute numbers of this group and other groups.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek)

Bonier's organization, TargetSmart, has absolute number up on their website: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Don't know the org, so can't speak to accuracy, but the under 30 increase is from 57,519 to 331,918 (477%) and the over 65 increase is from 647,270 to 1,213,745 (87%). All age groups showing big jumps, smaller absolute numbers and bigger percentage increases with the younger cohorts.

p.s. i am 100% certain scholten will disappoint us if he wins, but come on it's steve king.

uhhh what? too centrist for you?

xp

Dang, that’s what I was afraid of. That above 65 increase is almost as surprising as the whippersnapper increase

How many over 65s forgot to vote once there

Dang, that’s what I was afraid of. That above 65 increase is almost as surprising as the whippersnapper increase

― Karl Malone, Tuesday, October 30, 2018 5:43 PM

still hopeful though

remember to ignore early vote.

uhhh what? too centrist for you?

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, October 30, 2018 8:43 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nothing specific, it's just the way of the world.

You may be surprised!

https://i.imgur.com/JRZdzOW.png

lol

Dat's a beeeen-go!

haha!

I am doing the second Sam Byck monologue at rehearsal in ten minutes and the inspiration for the anger in this scene is so easy to draw from this week

xp

I've donated to Scholten and actually met him. On some level, of course he'll disappoint me because I think the farm bill and ethanol subsidies are terrible and no way he can play that way.

But yeah, let's get Steve King.

Moodles is legit imo

This might be my ILX high water mark!

TBRR, I copy and pasted a tweet. I think the numbers are accurate, but not 100% sure.

Jacob Wohl's fiasco today reminds me of how in Heat, DeNiro's character knows Pacino is aware that he is going to rob a bank the next day, and does it anyway

Who is Waingro in this scenario though

Hey let's not ignore this sweet grift.

Loren Jacobs, who was invited onstage by VP Pence to speak at a rally in Michigan, was defrocked 15 years ago, according to a spokeswoman for the Union of Messianic Jewish Congregations. https://t.co/NofWyH2UmM

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 31, 2018

so Epstein/Pence couldn't find an actual rabbi. Lena Epstein deserves to lose her race.

From a bit further down the 'jury duty' tweet

There is a gym on the 19th floor of the St Regis pic.twitter.com/9ypDBeqFHl

— Pet Emetary 🎃 (@FormalScrunchie) October 30, 2018

Though now I am wondering if this is bait to get "Dems visibly challenging inaccurate memories of rape victims" out there.

(It's mentioned in the comments that the 19th floor gym was a renovation in 2013.)

Yea refuting facts in these idiots' stories only plays into their hands

I dislike hashtags but I really dislike incorrect hashtags and how the right subtly bastardized #believewomen to #believeallwomen in order to mock.

i thought all distractions must be answered in full

Duly noted. But that's on you, mate.

Yea refuting facts in these idiots' stories only plays into their hands

― fuck the NRA (Neanderthal), 31. oktober 2018 12:28 (twenty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It does not. This shows how tough it actually is to fabricate these stories, and how easily spotted falsehoods are. It makes it smarter, rather than stupider, to say that when it's word against word, the proper thing to do is to #believewomen.

Burden of proof is on them and they've been hilariously clowned nd humiliated and discredited at this point.

Continuing to refute individual facts like "lol the 18th floor is a gym" lends the illusion that people are taking the allegations seriously. Which nobody is, because right now there ARE no actual specific allegations and cos the whole thing was so badly bungled.

This isn't a Devin Nunes scenario where you have to attack him on all fronts because he is a weasel with power who can exert influence. This shit never got off the ground

Like there is no woman to believe or disbelieve at the moment

good mourning!

RIP Muellergate (2:30-2:32 CST, 10/30/18)