Brazil - have you been there?

ciro's PDT has longstanding tensions with PT. PDT has a more robustly socialist history and counts with one of the country's few successful openly socialist(ish) politicians in leonel brizola, and they are historically suspicious of PT's more anything-goes, low-brow approach to leftism. ciro wants to secure the anti-PT vote in a potential 2022 election. I think thats delusional.

so, how we ended up electing a guy who publicly shares that his granddad was a nazi soldier and that he would gladly fight in hitler's army himself: it's mostly a libidinal/identity thing. polls have long shown that the armed forces are the most trusted institution among brazilians. we have such a sentimental attachment to the figure of a military strongman candidate that we can just project all we want onto him (effective, strong, incorruptible etc) while ignoring all the facts (he was a lowly officer who was expelled from the army b/c of a failed terrorist plot; he has changed party allegiance around 10 times; has left no substantial legacy during his 27 years in congress).

reminding b voters of his failings and violent statements is missing the point; they dont operate on that kind of logic, it's a kierkegaardian leap of faith, they WANT and NEED him to be the alpha soldier they have dreamed about all their lives. this sort of 'tyrant father' might be *the* master-signifier in the brazilin imaginary, see: our most internally successful cultural product being the movie <i>tropa de elite</i> during which the country fell head over heels in love with ultraviolent cops. there is also the extremely successful anti-corruption operation Lava-Jato being led by the ruthless, handsome judge Moro, who is treated like a god by the media and much of the populace. fitness/sports/fighting subcultures also all vote en masse for bolsonaro (which is a kind of obvious elective affinity, I know, but bolsonaro is actually flabby and skinny-fat)

other things that add to the perfect storm:

identification with his proud whiteness, in a context of generational social chaos/crime/violence which has led to polarization between white/rich and poc/poor sections of society (white poor places also tend to vote for him). he will probably allow our extremely brutal military police to enact de facto genocide on favelados, and most of us will stay silent about it

the widespread hatred of the left which reached a feverish pitch this year (only 39% of the electorate actually votes for bolsonaro, but 50% HATES PT and would not vote for them under any circumstances), this despite the irony that many of these are poor people who enjoyed the benefits of PT's social safety net. the reasons for this are surreal and darkly humorous, including the success of hysterical right-wing memes and fake news spread by right-libertarian outfits like MBL which mimic american channer culture. it's not that "memes caused widespread proto-fascism", it's a bit chicken and egg, but there's a correlation. there is generally, I think, a spiritual affinity between american and brazilian culture, in the sense that both are v mercantilistic, distrustful of any kind of collectivism, and politically subliterate and proud of it

also widespread corruption, anti-establishment feeling etc. but really, I always circle back to our military infatuation. to be essentialist for a bit, it's a very latin thing—I've always said to my friends that the only way for a latin leftist government to secure long-term power is for it to somehow infiltrate the military, which did happen with chavista venezuela. a part of me even thinks that, if we were in bizarroworld and bolsonaro was a tankie communist calling for land reform, we would still vote for him en masse because of his army credentials and manly bravado

long post whoa

Thank you for writing it.

yes, thank you.

Thanks for the analysis, epigone.

excellent.

Yes excellent - although I don't know if that explains Lula and Dilma. I was just recommending Bunuel's El to a friend yesterday when talking about all of this - which gets that masculine Latin American culture just right.

thanks, epigone.

results coming in 2-3 hours, i guess? god, some good news would be nice today.

Since Bolsonaro has openly stated that if he loses in the second round it's voter fraud, I'm worried that even if we get lucky and the fucker doesn't win the fall-out from this will be bloody.

More than 20 Brazilian universities were invaded by the military police in the past 2 days. They confiscated material on the history of fascism, interrupted classes due to 'ideological content', removed anti-fascist banners and posters claiming that it was electoral propaganda. https://t.co/T0KyOhe2Yv

— Rodrigo Castriota (@castriotar) October 26, 2018

fucking hell.

christ, the election was not even close. 55/45 or 56/44.

stay safe our friends in Brasil.

Christ this is depressing.

not surprising at all, but very depressing.

The Nordeste came correct - around 70% for Haddad almost across the board - but it wasn't enough.

I'm reading posts by Brazilian friends on my timeline and tearing up, what a shitty fucking time.

Oh, man.

fucking hell

this will be one of the better assassinations

Ben Fogel interview on Chapo is also a good history lesson on all of this. Nb it’s just a straight interview by amber without the others present so if you don’t normally enjoy the show this one is still easy to listen to.

my landlords run an NGO for street kids in Brazil (where they current live, and how I'm able to live in their house) -- I hope they're going to be ok, some of his comments about "NGOs" (which seems to be a catch-all term for...progressives?) are pretty chilling

this is one of the most frightening angles imho

Brazil has been a world leader in climate change mitigation but this is about to change. Fascism is an immediate threat to nature. Bolsonaro wants to cut down protection of the Amazon rainforest- the lungs of the planet and the most biodiverse place in the world.

— tina⚔️ (@babyvietcong) October 29, 2018

Looks like we’ll broach the era of geoengineering “solutions” even more quickly than I thought.

Bolsonaro is not the "Brazilian Trump". He also has little in common with European right-populists.

Bolsonaro will curb democracy like Putin & Erdogan and unleash the violence of Duterte.

But he is still worse than all of these. Here's why:https://t.co/CFh6TzcjAw

— Alex Hochuli (@Alex__1789) October 28, 2018

Militant activities (think of the FARC in Colombia or Maoist squads in parts of India) will have to be organised. It's pretty much the only thing left. No time to fuck about with a rigged democracy.

Brazilian singer Caetano Veloso who was once jailed by the then military government and later put into exile, wrote an op-ed for the NY Times before the election entitled "Dark Times Are Coming for my Country"

https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/8481690/caetano-veloso-new-york-times-op-ed

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/opinion/caetano-veloso-brazil-bolsonaro.html

I've followed this pretty casually, but why would a country that was ruled by a military dictatorship for decades democratically elect by a large margin someone who even hinted at a return to that era? Is it mostly an extreme reaction to "corruption" (which, to be fair, was afaict itself pretty extreme in Brazil)?

Sometimes I think that the American political system is even more corrupt than what was going on in Brazil -- we've basically legalized the scheme of corporate campaign contributions and kickbacks that they had to do illicitly.

Sometimes I wonder if our problem isn't corruption so much as being supremely wasteful and inefficient.

Isn't a hunk of Brazil's previous administration literally in jail right now?

Militant activities (think of the FARC in Colombia or Maoist squads in parts of India) will have to be organised. It's pretty much the only thing left. No time to fuck about with a rigged democracy.

― xyzzzz__, Monday, October 29, 2018 4:35 AM (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Brazilians have much more experience with this than Americans do. Only recently the country was led by an ex-guerilla fighter against the prior military dictatorship.

C. Veloso in NY Times: The major news outlets have tended to minimize the dangers, working in fact for Mr. Bolsonaro by describing the situation as a confrontation between two extremes: the Workers’ Party potentially leading us to a Communist authoritarian regime, while Mr. Bolsonaro would fight corruption and make the economy market friendly

I haven't seen it discussed a lot but I'm guessing the collapse of Venezuela, their neighbor, played a role in all of this?

brazilian urban guerrillas were very small, ineffective and easily crushed. the mid-late 20th century has shown it to be an extremely bad tactic. even in countries where the radical leftist movements were substantial and guerrilla cells had thousands of members, like in argentina and chile, they didnt accomplish much and were brutally murdered/disappeared. people thought it would work because guerrillas were a success in cuba, but that only happened due to contingent reasons and their success wasnt replicated anywhere else in latin america.

yes there is a lot of hysteria about !!!bolivarian communists!!!

I understand that except the left can't go anywhere except exile...or the Amazon.

Racist, sexist and homophobic or a refreshing break from political correctness? Jair #Bolsonaro's history of controversial statements. #BrazilElection https://t.co/yX0JP2GUG0

— BBC Monitoring (@BBCMonitoring) October 26, 2018

"essential media insight" from the classy BBC, who think talking up torture and death squads might be a "refreshing change" from that PC gone madness.

I think you'll find there were very fine people on both sides...

Classic example of media-fuelled, mercantile false equivalencies right there.

xp

Facts or a refreshing break from facts.

Heh, that's a little too otm for comfort.

For BBC Monitoring it seems the austerity has never been over.

@BBCMonitoring
After much speculation Turkish President Erdogan has announced that the new airport in Istanbul will be called "Istanbul Airport"

Infuriating BBC tweet. Bolsonaro isn’t doing an HBO standup special

I've followed this pretty casually, but why would a country that was ruled by a military dictatorship for decades democratically elect by a large margin someone who even hinted at a return to that era? Is it mostly an extreme reaction to "corruption" (which, to be fair, was afaict itself pretty extreme in Brazil)?

Because a lot of people did pretty well out of the dictatorship and do well out of fascism - I think you can guess who.

I just don't even know. I would hope other SA countries will take up the slack and move towards more progressive agendas, international companies will move their offices out of Sao Paulo, but none of this will help the Brazilian people.

Precedent for international companies disliking fascism?

I just don't even know. I would hope other SA countries will take up the slack and move towards more progressive agendas

Latin America’s Right-Wing Turn

Another excellent tweet, this one from Canada:

Brazil's new president elect, Jair Bolsonaro, is a right-winger who leans towards more open markets. This could mean fresh opportunities for Canadian companies looking to invest in the resource-rich country. https://t.co/g00QUOeutt

— CBC News Alerts (@CBCAlerts) October 28, 2018

googling a bit I found some UBS presentation on why a Bolsonaro win would be good for markets

as much as the bolsonaro is going to cause horrific human death and destruction, the idea that he will raze a good section the amazon rainforest is hitting me the hardest here.

Humans are really too stupid to manage themselves aren't they. And it's the "smartest" humans in particular who seem to fit that description.

I mean, I am a temporary resident of Chile (soon to become permanent) I can see it opening up opportunities for other countries whose currency and current social landscape aren't are volatile. I just forbade my spouse from traveling to Brazil for work anymore.

And hopefully other countries will welcome any LGBTQ/allied Brazilians who want to leave.