one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

Then take the fight to them by actually making the argument for immigrants as people with real lives rather than units of destruction. Take the anti-establishment argument away by laying out how your approach will benefit the poor and stop paving the ground for a betrayal narrative. Take the fight to them by opposing the mainstreaming of fascism in the Times and the Telegraph. Leave won the emotional arguments, stop throwing facts and figures at it. Forge a narrative argument, not a technocratic one. Then you might be getting somewhere instead of laying the ground for an even heavier defeat and an even more extreme mandate.

I think Matt’s otm; I’ve been finding a certain type of People’s Voter voice extremely irritating in a similar way, I imagine, to a lot of the “trumps gonna get arrested” crowd, this fantasy of a reset button that gets us back to the glorious prelapsarian status quo of, um, 2016. That’s obviously bs but at the same time Brexit will still be all that bad shit plus yknow the total fucking trainwreck of Brexit, so I’m kinda coming around to the idea that averting it is something to aim for whatever the consequence (& I think there will be bad consequences) - just not *instead of* doing the work of offering something better

xp gyac otm

Everyone otm basically, except deems just because

i dont take it personally unless you pay extra

I agree that a 2nd ref would be incredibly risky. The only way it would work is if everyone who voted Remain plus a big chunk of the people who didn't vote last time came out and voted Remain. Because you can bet that practically all the people who voted Leave would vote Leave again. Really the only way that enough Leave voters might change their mind would be for the deal to be so bad that one of the prominent Leave campaigners publicly states that Leaving is a shit idea - and it would more or less have to be someone like Boris or Farage. Which is very unlikely to happen.

I suspect that, when the consequences are more tangible, you might simply get fewer leave voters turning out but idk. The grim reaper has probably swung things a bit too.

xp And even if it did happen and we somehow managed to stay in the EU we'd be a fucking pariah but so what's new?

."the grim reaper" is a bit harsh on Soubry, no need for personalised abuse!

the grim FBPEeper

Lol!

As to the Leave vote, everybody hanging it on uncouth working/lower middle class outside metropolitan areas is making a huge and telling mistake similar to the mistake made by those analysing Trump’s victory - they are erasing well-to-do golf club wankers and older Home Counties Tories, without whom the numbers for Leave simply would not have added up to a Brexit win.

I am really fed up with FPBE critics of Labour’s front bench who know *damn well* that Corbyn was in Geneva meeting about guarantees for workers rights, Abbott and McDonnell were at an anti-fascist meeting and Thornberry/Keir Starmer can’t endorse marching because of collective shadow cabinet responsibility. Trying to portray Corbyn as having a self-indulgent meeting with a Chilean was especially grating, as Michelle Bachelet is the UN head in charge of working people’s rights.

I'd argue those concerns would still be better served by Britain remaining in the EU rather than allowing the Tories a few years of experimenting with full on Britannia Unchained hyperneoliberalism. And unless you're banking on an imminent Labour victory and the Tories never getting back in, that scenario is bound to happen sooner or later. Anything that prepares the ground for that needs to be resisted, which has been my problem with the whole Lexit argument from the start.

But a second referendum is going to be incredibly tricky for Labour, it's difficult to imagine Corbyn or any of the front bench being able to campaign on either side.

Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer, who has generally been bordering on insufferable lately, made the argument today that politicians are more likely to blink once the scale of the abyss Britain is staring into becomes readily apparent to enough people. That still hasn't happened yet, and it might be too late when it does.

The only way Remain could win any referendum would be through a properly thought-out and executed strategy to split the economically anxious/plain fucked off Leave voters from the outright zealots, immigration obsessives and people who are just cunts. That might be easier when the scale of the disaster becomes clear, "Project Fear" is unlikely to work as a line of attack then. And you have to use people who those voters trust and respect. Paying the likes of David Miliband and Nick Clegg to shut up would be a good first step.

re:enough ppl realising scale

this wont happen

If I were a Brexiteer I would suggest people boycott a second referendum. After all, they say they have their answer, and they disagree with another poll. Even ignoring that possibility, I see no way of holding a second refererendum that would not do further damage to our democracy. We might face general elections in which less than half of those eligible vote, which would be a crisis of legitimacy.

i

i dont see the actual awful ppl u dont want in charge worried about such crises when they win

No, they don't. But I think we should.

Crises of liberal democracy aren't something to wish for. To the people who voted to leave, they were asked their opinion, gave it, and won. I don't know how you recover from the loss of confidence that over-ruling them would cause. I know who they will turn to.

otm dowd

“re:enough ppl realising scale

this wont happen”

Yep^

This is exactly the complacency that worries me, this “surely everyone has seen sense now after two years of David Schneider tweets and also all the leave voters died in the last two years” seems like a massively reckless gamble

Which is why the strategy Matt outlines is the way to go and why the marchy ppl are falling short

'Peoples Vote' and 'second referendum seem to all mixed up into one. and Is there even reliable data to suggest remain would win a second referendum? Peoples Vote seems very confusing to me, a) because how is it different from a second referendum wearing a different hat, and b) if it purports to be a vote on a deal - thats reliant on there being a deal agreed to vote on. Still doesnt seem exactly clear this will be the case.

If i was a brexiteer I might even want a second referendum so I could do the double, surprized more of them aren't up for it

I don't know how badly UKIP are currently polling, but they have become too extreme for some of the beyond the pale right wing tories that jumped ship to them in recent times. Like someone said, they are a virus just waiting to be reactivated.

'brexit because we lost honourably and we dont want to give the yes voters a reason to be upset' is bewildering to me but look fair enough

and Is there even reliable data to suggest remain would win a second referendum?

nothing reliable in this racket chief

good piece of old-fashioned left-sociological class analysis: https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-bourgeois-politics-of-peoples-vote.html

My actual favourite line:
"Had the left pulled off a demonstration of yesterday's size, breathless SWP internal emails would be emphasising the opportunities it opens up and all the usual leftist suspects would be hailing it as an earthquake"

This is the key to the twee, as a symptom of inexperience and lack of prior political involvement ("look at us being a popular revolt!")
"The anxiety over Brexit provides the perfect opportunity for them* to reach a mass audience but, true to their elite approach to politics, the masses of people who turn up at the demonstrations are not invited to participate further. They have a walk-on part, they are bodies to be used as leverage in the media air war with Corbynism and under no circumstances is their movement allowed to open out** to address other concerns."***

*them = Campbell, Blair, Soubry, Umunna, as distinct from the well meaning and worried ppl on the march
**his argument -- i think correct -- is that this is a large number of people, and it's actually worth thinking to get some of them embedded in a politics where they are contributing as activists (in the mode gyac gestures at), tho how this would happen i don't really know… tho momentum has actually slipped back into quiet unimaginative intra-party work and probably ought to be scooping more legs up for relevant door-knocking (i live in entirely the wrong part of the country to know much abt this = 3rd safest labour seat in the country by majority)
***it doesn't at all explore matt's concerns, about how a GE comes about and what labour do if they win it

(beware dangling modifier in the long quote: the they in the first half of the sentence is -- very confusingly -- not the they of the second half)

"To the people who voted to leave, they were asked their opinion, gave it, and won. I don't know how you recover from the loss of confidence that over-ruling them would cause. I know who they will turn to."

Er, isn't it the same people they'll turn to if they get a slightly softened Brexit, become poorer, and the press tells them there would have been unicorns if Remoaners/foreigners hadn't got in the way? Or the same people they'll turn to if we crash out and the shop shelves are bare, fewer nurses, no medicine, no flights, power cuts, chaos, w/e?

I'm not sure a 2nd ref is the way to go in general and it would definitely need to be sold better than it is currently or than Remain managed last time, though, agreed

(but how could we honestly say "why not stay in the EU and instead reverse austerity, find more money for local public services, more regional power & spending" when whatever happens re Brexit we still have a Tory govt and we aren't going to get any of those sorely needed things in the immediate aftermath, nor is it up to anyone marching whether we get them at all? I mean we are not all Borisishly charming enough for the "it was clearly just a suggestion and all the voters knew it wasn't up to us" line)

I do think that if the government are somehow able to either get a Brexit deal through Parliament, or if there's No Deal or an extension to A50 (ie pretty much any of the most likely eventualities) then they will hang on until the very end of this Parliament by the skin of their teeth. For all the talk of there being an imminent election they could well stick around until 2022. Weak governments facing likely defeat tend to stick around until the last possible minute.

It's unlikely Corbyn will last that long - either through Labour ructions or more likely through just retiring - and even if he did he that would be a record for a first-time PM. Whoever replaces him is pretty much 100% likely to be pro-EU, given the make-up of the party.

Ultimately Europhile sentiment in this country is going to continue to grow, there will be a Return campaign, and there will be a lot of pressure on Labour in particular to cleave to it, regardless of what else happens short of the complete break-up of the EU. It's already electrified in a way it wasn't before the referendum.

It looks very likely to me that a future Labour leader, maybe not the next one, will be elected either on a promise to take Britain back into the EU or some other form of much closer relationship. The biggest danger to Brexiters is still that they might end up getting everything they want and for the country to go 'fuck no'.

probably right on the overall trend, but the EU is going to be a hard sell without our current perks and opt-outs (and we'll be a hard sell to the EU until they're really sure we've got this out of our system)

perhaps the decline in importance of the right-wing press as it currently exists and the collapse of the £ will make joining the Euro a lot more attractive though

kids growing up listening to people my age tell them "when I was in my 20s we went to Europe with no paperwork" "yes mum we know, shut up already" etc

(also wrt my mention of "more regional power & spending"... it is my personal opinion that this might mitigate part of what many Leavers are upset by

but I admit it may be a hard sell to people who probably think their local council are bastards who shouldn't be given any more money and that regional powers sounds all a bit suspiciously like this "federal" concept they don't like very much when the EU/Germans do it

cutting local council funding is an exciting feedback loop for central govt: starve councils of cash so they cut services and jump desperately at deals with development firms which make them even more unpopular, headlines appear about fat cat councillor salaries and the cost of bungled traffic schemes as if they should get even less money, etc)

far cry from small boys in the rhone valley, jumpers for vineyards

xp to matt dc: that's if one takes for granted that the Brexiteers are really interested in brexit strategies as a long-term goal. I think its obvious that the elite interests backing brexit dont care about the country or even the tory party. The rees moggs etc are playing this as disaster capitalism, which is inherently indifferent to long-term planning; its extreme exploitation and carpet-bagging. The plan is gut standards> smash unions> bring the country to its knees> sell off the last vestiges of state resources> EXTREME PROFIT.

i know i'm not saying anything that isn't common knowledge, but I do get the sense that the ante has been upped in general in terms of staring-into-the-abyss looting. The oxford ppe class of '88 seem to have really upped the ante on nihilistic end-games.

its also about how england has finally become its own colony

That's true, but being seen to benefit from disaster capitalism is highly unlikely to have much appeal to the electorate for very long.

At the same time I read that piece Mark linked to and I'm just incredibly sceptical and eyerolling about arguments of left or right that put Corbyn at the center of the issue whether he needs to be there or not. Difficult to see why he would be at the forefront of Anna Soubry's motivations, for example, and while getting rid of him would be a nice bonus for Blair he was a committed enough Europhile in office that I doubt he would accept a Corbyn sacrifice in exchange for letting Brexit go ahead.

There's some execrable stuff written about Corbyn and Syria as well despite his bearing on the situation being peripheral at best.

fair re soubry, that was more my careless summary than what the verypublicsociologist was saying

It was in the article!

it is, but he's handwaving a bunch of symbols at that point (admittedly also rather carelessly)

i don’t get a sense the disaster capitalists care much about career politics. we know, for instance, that mogg has no desire for the leadership. redwood has long given up anything remotely resembling that. they want to bring about a set of circumstances which benefits them and their circles, and i suppose this probably does align with ideology, tho the ideology seems weak.

this seems to me more about power in the - well i don’t know the space exactly, but the finance/trading/city space.

do they want May to go, yes absolutely. she is pretty much the sole person who can prevent their desired outcome. gove seems crucial in terms of which way he throws his support (or lack of vocal opposition).

main current problem facing May is that if they do decide to trigger a vote of no confidence - which hitherto people have said they had no chance of winning - they will know the ideal window for getting rid of her next year has gone. that means, given an assumed general consensus that no one in the tory part wants may around after spring 2019, they would have to vote against May now, given that’s the only opportunity.

All that taking place radically reduces the likelihood of a brexit more integrated with the EU.

I guess my difficulty with the people’s vote march, and my sympathies are completely with it, and with large public protests to keep up pressure, is that i’m not clear what they’re marching for. a second referendum - what’s going on the ballot? do we really feel the result is likely to be meaningfully different? what would a small majority the other way mean?

who is this pressure targeted at? what is the specific aim? the tories are playing their own game and really couldn’t care less. so it’s labour? but the only pressure there is to get them to vote with May on a more integrated settlement (assuming she’s still leading), keeping the Tories in power.

In the case of no deal, Labour are trying to keep a people’s vote in play anyway.

general strike might do it.

In the case of no deal, Labour are trying to keep a people’s vote in play anyway.

but a no deal doesn't go through parliament, does it?

The Sunday Times quoted one unnamed Tory MP as saying: “The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted. She’ll be dead soon.”

Another said May was now entering “the killing zone”, and a third remarked: “Assassination is in the air.” In the Mail on Sunday, another quote was that May should “bring her own noose” to a meeting of backbench Tories.

bit of harmless bantz from the ERG boys, they are also available for children's parties.

it's alright, they're sacking Bercow so no MP will ever behave like this again

I'm not saying I don't care about the conditions MPs have to work in, but number of sleepless nights spent fretting over their welfare so far = nil!

rees-mogg has always had something of the toht from raiders of the lost ark about him, i assume that first quote is his

The pricks are so clearly loving every minute of that that I wonder if they're going to go for Halloween for the ultimate in dramatic effect.

As somebody who hates May even more that the rest of them, those quotes are still way too much for me, what adult even says that stuff?

public school weasels who think they're in game of thrones and forget that a sitting mp was actually murdered two years ago would be my guess

forget and/or don't care probably more accurate

the speed with which jo cox has been erased from history is really fucking disgusting

the EDL rhetoric of our current Home Sec would suggest they are oblivious/willfully ignorant to the forces that were behind Cox's murder.

Very cool how campaigners and mumsnet are focusing on Labour being misogynistic, I say.

xxp George Osborne had that awful line about her chopped up in his freezer ffs