one out all out: a brexit from the modern world and every one of its problems please (we're all gonna die lol)

not sure i can quite decode the "extras on a break from filming poldark catch up with twitter" metaphor

stupid fucking actors, trapped in the maze of their minds!

I'm not sure about the Times one either tbh!

the more i read about this and think about it, the "backstop" is kind of the whole game, isn't it? or at least it could turn out to be

It’s the crux of the thing for sure; and clearly the EU knew it from the start. And what a gift it is for them. For all the many irreconcilable promises, “no border inside the UK” is special, because it is only possible if the EU grant it.

Which they have literally no incentive to do. Damaging though a no-deal would be for them, it will always be worse for Britain; they know Britain will have to fold first and so they can demand the best possible outcome for the EU, sorry “punish plucky Britain for daring to leave”.

There are afaict now just four routes out (apart from stall for more time): 1, become a rule-taker in the customs union indefinitely; 2, put a hard border in the sea; 3, cancel Brexit, or 4, call an election to let someone else do one of the other three.

The last three are politically impossible so that only leaves becoming a rule-taker. (Though I bet if May had a majority we’d already have agreed to option two. And they might still try it, which would seemingly provoke the DUP to bring them down.)

I don’t think the fantasists will let her have option one either, not when BMW is just waiting to force the EU to make the easiest trade deal in history.

So what now? Either Labour support the eternal-customs-union deal (which would be genuinely bad for us) or we slide into no deal, the government collapses, people are rude to the Rees-Mogg offspring, we scavenge bins etc etc.

Why would being a rule taker in the customs union be a bad thing it seems like the best option short of cancelling Brexit entirely. It seems infinitely preferable to the feudal freemarket hellscape that the moggites desire.

The UK will be a rule taker in any market it wants to trade in because it’s an insignificant rainy island in the Atlantic. China, the US, the TPP will impose heir rules on British exports. The whole point of the EU being part of a larger collective and having bargaining power. Every trade deal in history results in the weaker power getting fucked and everyone is lining up to fuck the UK once it’s out of Europe and the Uk will have no alternative but to take whatever it can get on whatever terms. It’s fucking moronic to think otherwise.

The best option short of cancelling Brexit is Norway.

Being a rule-taker keeps the lights on but it’ll be destabilising as fuck in the medium-term. Yes shitty tiny rainy island, but nevertheless still a G7 economy, and there are rich pickings to he had for partners (look who owns all our privatised industries eg).

The trade-offs arguably worked within the EU when the UK had a voice to argue (disproportionately well historically) for its interests and get eg services deals in exchange.

Without that representation the incentives for the EU27 would be pretty damagingly configured for future negotiations. The terms would just as unfavourable to the UK as they would under the free-trade hellscape scenario and unlike the FT scenario the counterparties would have unfettered market access to the UK. There’s no way in hell that ends well.

(I am assuming the backstop is sub-EFTA here but I can’t see how it wouldn’t be)

The main incentive the EU has to avoid a hard border would be preventing a serious economic shock to Ireland (and possibly a political one too).

Whether that's enough of an incentive is another question but I'm not convinced they will want to willingly create yet another crisis when one could feasibly be avoided.

It’s definitely enough incentive but the EU can avoid the hard border in ways which are mostly upside for the EU and all downside for the UK, and they know the DUP are their trump card on delivering that.

May to make statement to the commons this afternoon.

Let me guess, the statement will be that she's planning to carry on just as before and tough shit if you disagree?

that statement in full

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/garfield/images/6/65/Download.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20150511211358

https://screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com/images/f7fcc6e5-43ca-4343-90ae-de1dbab08ecb.png

I'll just leave this here

I'm genuinely curious about what she's going to come up with. It can't be "nasty EU still being nasty :(", surely

it's surely that.

also this ERG member MP thinks there's a reciprocal arrangement whereby English people can get an Irish passport by asking for one:

ERG member @ABridgen thinks he has the right to an Irish passport by virtue of being English. pic.twitter.com/oLekrvuroT

— Property Spotter (@PropertySpot) October 15, 2018

I mean, no he doesn’t.

(think that)

Brexiters’ lack of trust in PM is so intense that @SteveBakerHW has told ERG he fears negotiating impasse is a ruse, or “synthetic”, to spook markets and Tory MPs, so ultimately they back unacceptable backstop and Chequers. “All this must be called out” Baker says

— Robert Peston (@Peston) October 15, 2018

The statement to his ERG colleagues in full from @SteveBakerHW on @theresa_may’s statement this PM on Brexit impasse pic.twitter.com/Mrlra3Sh7k

— Robert Peston (@Peston) October 15, 2018

How many steps are between us and the moment someone calls this 'brilliant 5d ch*ss' from May etc?

the markets will gyrate, colleagues will swoon

please subscribe to my erotic brexit fanfic

as the only possible outcome is stalemate, and probably always has been, my tinfoil-hatted cat thinks it's just another wheeze to distract us all from panicking about climate change

i am perfectly capable of panicking about more than one thing at once cheers

It's one thing to lose to political opponents who are sharper/better/craftier/etc. Losing - when so much is at stake! - to this feeble-minded crew of dunces is a right fucker. "We must stand firm in what we believe: [two mutually exclusive concepts]" indeed.

"we signed a treaty for a backstop, clearly I can't expect this house to agree to a backstop"

This 'backstop to the backstop', even if temporary, seems almost guaranteed to have the DUP tipping over tables.

hey welcome to what weve been dealing with all century

.@theresa_may confirms she is balking at proposal for NI only “backstop to a backstop”. And that UK should have right to unilaterally break free of backstop in future. If at this point you are losing will to live, you are not alone

— Robert Peston (@Peston) October 15, 2018

have we considered the possibility that theresa may is in the grip of a two-year attack of uncontrollable glossolalia

Clever rebranding of backstop. The original backstop - which is still there - is now a backstop to a backstop. May also reveals the EU is saying a UK wide “temporary” customs bridge to avoid the backstop-backstop cannot be negotiated pre-Brexit. Kicking into future relationship?

— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) October 15, 2018

This guy remains...something else.

@DanielJHannan
5h5 hours ago
Britain should confirm that it will put no new infrastructure on its side of the Irish border and is prepared to meet any reasonable proposal for a free trade agreement that would allow the EU to do the same on its side. That should have been our approach from the start.

'We will do nothing to solve the border and suggest you come up with the means to ensure that you don't have to either"

the sheer bloodyminded arrogance of 'we wanna leave, you do all the work but make sure we don't have to give up any of the many exemptions and privileges we've carved out for ourselves during our membership of the eu' never ceases to be shocking

thickie divorce

Britain should confirm that it will put no new infrastructure on its side of the Irish border and is prepared to meet any reasonable proposal for a free trade agreement that would allow the EU to do the same on its side. That should have been our approach from the start.

They used to talk about this dude as being the smart one. How exactly is an undefended and unpoliced border going to play with the racist brexiteer hordes? It'd solve the EU's migrant problem, though. Just create a staging post in Monaghan with a big arrow pointing to the UK.

"make sure we don't have to give up any of the many exemptions and privileges we've carved out for ourselves during our membership of the eu"

...except if you put forward a plan which keeps any of them, even the ones we told everyone they could still have, we will immediately wail "that's not really leaving"

and somehow people, real everyday people not just political spin doctor con artist types, keep cheering this disingenuous bullshit which seems self-evidently at odds with reality. do not know how to join the two realities back together

meanwhile Maybot still churning out "the people have had a vote: they voted to leave" "working to get a good deal but continuing to plan for no deal too" in response to all questions

not as infuriating as the last May speech about how the EU is a bully for not accepting our highly constructive good-faith negotiations aka "I know you are but what am I" though, I'll give it that

"a staging post in Monaghan with a big arrow pointing to the UK"

I hope the migrants enjoy the Armagh Planetarium on their way in, it's p cool

If only neo-colonial pipsqueak Hannan had been able to exert some influence over the matter at any point over the last four decades instead of apparently being routinely ignored. I guess now we'll never know how successful Brexit could've been with his guiding gross wet hand.

Can't believe our previously functional political system has suddenly failed us

lol we're all gonna die

Asked whether Donald Tusk would be concerned not to disrespect Theresa May, after the Salzburg fiasco, an EU official says that "telling the truth" is not being disrespectful. Fear that the PM might hear some more hard truths this week.

— Daniel Boffey (@DanielBoffey) October 16, 2018

Gloomy by EU official. If all gone well Sun, a joint political declaration would have been on table at the leaders dinner. "Since there is no agreement on the Irish backstop there will not be an outline of joint pol dec on table on Wed evening..it will not change before Wed"

— Daniel Boffey (@DanielBoffey) October 16, 2018

BREAK: Senior EU official confirms the EU will not be providing dinner for Theresa May on Wednesday 🙀

— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) October 16, 2018

"yes it's the leader's dinner, but no you're not having any because are you actually even a leader?"

Meanwhile the rollout of Universal Credit has been paused.

Saw also that Nick Timothy is suggesting that the government should remain in the customs union for five years - yes he’s a total galaxy brain but as a headliner who’s responsible for much of the approach, this is an interesting development.

probably sick of her kvetching about "foreign food"

I’m not sure the no-dinner thing is a great idea when she’s a type 1 diabetic? Reminds me of this (official!) photo from almost a year ago.

http://amp.timeinc.net/time/4991476/theresa-may-lonely

I love that often repeated "out there in the job centres the staff have so much enthusiasm for UC and how it is transforming people's lives". Like is as if the staff are going to deliver a devastating critique of UC to some fucking bigwig visitor from the DWP. UC needs burning down to the ground and cunts like IDS and Frank Field need executing for their roles in it.

hnnnngggghhhhhhhhh

The Progressive Centre UK (which you can follow @UKProgressive), a new think tank and network of progressives – which I have been appointed to chair – has launched with the explicit aim of connecting progressives from across the UK with the latest ideas and from across the globe.

— Chuka Umunna (@ChukaUmunna) October 15, 2018

most loathsome bunch of Jethro Tull enthusiasts ever.

MOAR CENTRISM

breaking the mould of politics by forming a think tank