hurricane coming...

I've relatives who live here. It's Deniersville, so I frankly hope for limited loss of life, but sufficient loss of wealth to change some minds.

Since 1990, meterologists have gotten way better at predicting where a hurricane is going.

But forecasts of hurricane *strength* haven’t really improved.

That’s why Hurricane Michael’s speedy transformation into a record-breaking Category 4 is alarming. https://t.co/iDeUx5JLqs

— Robinson Meyer (@yayitsrob) October 10, 2018

It traveled the yellow hot ocean road. No surprises for the physical modelers.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anoma.10.8.2018.gif

this is that sweet sanpaku content i pay $50/month for on ilx premium

sanpaku is mvp at these times

Reading that article in the economic environment it’s smashing, i keep angrily thinking trump can go free-throw some paper towels and see how popular he is.

that first video posted by mookieproof is something

it was extremely odd recently to look up in the sky to the south/southeast of Los Angeles and see these massive, strange-appearing storm clouds and knowing that they were from a rare Pacific hurricane that was dissipating after coming ashore in Mexico. Los Angeles was actually grazed by a hurricane once, in 1858. i wonder if we might see another one at some point, considering everything w/climate change.

a lot of people who stayed behind remain unaccounted for right now

some of those scenes in FLA are horrific

Here's a weird one-

Hurricane Leslie has been wandering around the Atlantic for a while now (not as a hurricane). It's now heading toward Portugal (!).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/233734.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/233734.png

This video of Michael coming ashore at Mexico Beach has been making the rounds, but if you haven't seen it yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ofAJSqpLM

in what circle of hell will charles and david koch get to enjoy denying an eternal oil hurricane?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IZqtahGMIw

That time of year again.

Floridians lose their collective minds

Also Mike from Mike's Weather Page is not a Meteorologist and yet makes some predictions anyway and people actually make life decisions based on them.

And he's wrong a lot cos all he does is plagiarize the majority from other meteorologists and make a few coinflip predictions and gets treated like a demigod.

his hard lemonade sucks too

To be fair, most meteorologists don't make predictions, either. Those spaghetti models of tropical storm evolution come from a handful of meteorological institutions with circulation models running on supercomputers. Competent broadcast meteorologists can interpret them, but I imagine the number who could program these models is in the low hundreds.

https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/Hurricane-Dorian-spaghetti-models-1170596.webp?r=1566913411611

I don't feel bad about wanting Dorian to hover over Doral.

European model currently has it rolling right along the coast from Florida to North Carolina, after building up now through Tuesday.

I don't feel bad about wanting Dorian to hover over Doral.

― hedonic treadmill class action (Sanpaku)

dude, fuck off -- that's three miles north of me

Seconded

I just really didn't need the extra stress rn. I am not worried cos I am inland but having to figure out contingency plans for work as well as having everybody freak out around me.

Orlando folk always act like they haven't done this before.

It is going to suck having this thing potentially cut a path northward while inland, though. I wish I were at Disney World at least -- that's the safest place to be.

Coastal Port St. Lucie to Vero Beach are presently projected to get the worst of it, especially if the storm surge is coincident with king tide. But the storm is so slowly moving after its turn north that the whole of inhabited Florida excepting the west coast gets up to two feet of rain. Waders and kayak time.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDMfNscU4AA3TDZ?format=png&name=medium

We in South Florida are allowing ourselves to hope because several models showing no direct impact

Including the Euro model.

The NHC track will probably wait one more Euro model cycle before adjusting the forecast though

Some do. About half of latest models seem to indicate just following the coast to NC.
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al052019.png

At least most of my weekend will be intact

my brother picked a great day to move to Florida lol

hope he's renting

Goddamn I'm really worried about him- not just this one but all of the hurricanes you all have to deal with every year. Fuck

xp Yeah, thank god

It's been worse since 2000 but I have lived here 38 years, been through six hurricanes, but...four of them came in one year.

Don't worry. It's not constant run for your life. Just stressful dealing with forecasts

Christ in a handbasket, just calm down, Dorian!!

look sharp, celts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203759_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

what the fuck

i thought that was karen for a sec and was like way to go karen. but no, karen has left us

didn't a hurricane hit England in 1987?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

50/50 chance it will hit England. Country file last Sunday said so, so it must be true.

as of yesterday, it was already the most north and east a category 5 has ever reached in the atlantic. luckily it's supposed to die down quite a bit before it reaches any ilxors (right?)

what i read today suggested it has dialed down to a category 2

I'm in its path in Wales but guessing those 'S's means it's died down to a storm by the time it makes landfall and assume Ireland would get it worse

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41utTSRRWHL.jpg

here we go

Tropical Depression #One Advisory 1: Tropical Depression Forms Off the Coast of East-Central Florida. Tropical Storm Watch Issued For a Portion of the North Carolina Coast. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 16, 2020

Taking a moment to feel glad that the tropical North Atlantic is temporarily covered with hurricane repellent. https://t.co/eZj4s4QJSL

— Charlie Loyd (@vruba) June 24, 2020

trop storm about to form in Atlantic. waiting for Floridians to show their asses like always and deplete our local stores.

on the plus side, this might force people to shelter in place for once, even if we get a weak-assed butt storm.

look out for the weak-butted ass storm

and in North Carolina

A storm surge of 4-6 feet is now predicted for the area near the Brunswick #nuclear plant due to #HurricaneIsaias.

— Edwin Lyman (@NucSafetyUCS) August 3, 2020