Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

invest in a chain of assisted suicide centers and sterilization clinics

get a Junior Anti-Sex League up and running

maybe just kick off some wars now so we can spread it out a bit, not have to eradicate too many populations at once

this is good. it's about a week-long workshop in sweden for people overwhelmed by the world, run by one of the Dark Mountain guys (i had forgotten about them). somehow it's both exactly and not at all what you'd expect

Group Therapy for the End of the World

hmm i’m no sanpaku for sure (i mean that in the informational sense) but i rather think the progression will shake out as a series of eruptive, economically extrinsic events, possibly geopolitical ones, which are so difficult to monetize reliably that theyre (we’re?) just burning money to stay fed, ultimately. I guess itll be rather long way down tho.

silby otm re: the assisted suicide centers and sterilization clinics

"i'm not only the president, i'm also a member"

er, a "client"

https://i.imgur.com/IJNAHQm.png?1

FEMA’s public assistance program has provided at least $81 billion in this manner to state, territorial and local governments in response to disasters declared since 1992, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data. But an examination of projects across the country’s ever-expanding flood zones reveals that decisions to rebuild in place, often made seemingly in defiance of climate change, have at times left structures just as defenseless against the next storm.

hm yep that'll definitely be above water for at least eight more weeks

Have I posted about the little group meetings I've been running, that could fairly be characterised as group therapy about climate change? It's been good.

You haven't mentioned this here, AFAIK.

If you're a mental health professional I hope you're aware of reddit's r/CollapseSupport, which seems the current nexus guiding towards resources for those coming to terms with climate change, overpopulation, resource constraints, human extinction etc. Personally I'm past depression and into acceptance, but it cost me some years of life.

xp: The entirety of Plaquemines parish will succumb to the waves within the next 50 years, all of Lousiana south of I-12 in the next 200. I live here, but only rent.

I'd really like a Dem majority to require that flood maps reflect the 1-2 m of sea level rise by 2100, the 4-5 m by 2200. As well as either limiting subsidized flood insurance to property above flood plains in updated maps. There no point in subsidizing coastal/marsh property that has no future, besides as scuba destination.

Elsewhere i already predicted that trumpist developers/scotus will determine that remapping for safety and value is actually causing sea level rise and ocean encroachment, and deem it to be a violation of the takings clause, and order repayment of oceanfront owners for actual costs plus investment expectation $$. I mean it’s hella dumb but if it gets on fox news he could start tweeting—

In fact, even this report is overly conservative, as these IPCC reports often are. It turns out that in some ways this latest report has actually understated the amount of warming that we’ve already experienced because of the burning of fossil fuels and the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And so arguably we are actually closer to those 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2.0 Celsius thresholds, temperature thresholds, that are discussed in the report.

https://therealnews.com/stories/michael-mann-we-are-even-closer-to-climate-disaster-than-ipcc-predicts

good mourning

more mourning

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/un-says-climate-genocide-coming-but-its-worse-than-that.html

A lot of this IPCC report has been in the literature for over a decade.

So the remarkable thing here is that the US (and other fossil producer) diplomatic representatives didn't veto the language. Either outright official dissent or indifference by appointees who don't think IPCC report matter (more true than not).

Another remarkable thing is the *much* higher carbon prices the IPCC report suggests. Currently, they're under $50/ton where pricing exists, I've been thinking north of $200/ton and ramping up (to match targets) would be necessary, but the IPCC report goes straight to "135 to $5,500 per ton in 2030, $245 to $13,000 per ton in 2050, $420 to $17,000 per ton in 2070 and $690 to $27,000 per ton in 2100".

This change in language, I hope, presages a time when international bodies call for tariffs against countries with sub-par GDP/emissions ratios. If US/Canada/Russia/China are forced to pay for their climate externalities through tariffs on their export goods, it will go a long way towards saving civilization.

this was a hell of a thing to come out the week of Mental Health Day

I'm generally an optimist by nature but I'm just so completely worn down by this, as I have been the last five years or so. What gets me is how it's always bad news, every single article on the topic is bad news, either the millionth iteration of "it's worse than we thought" or the hundredth "here's another really bad feedback loop" or another "here's a cool carbon capture technology that will never work". The cherry on top of course being the "we could've stopped this in the 80's but we didn't", cool, good to know.

my kids are 3 and 1. by the time they get out of college the conventional wisdom by well be "we're properly doomed and there's nothing we can do to stop it. your dad's generation probably could've though"

I've been very reassured in the last several years that there's nothing to be done and mass death and destruction are an inevitability. It's freeing.

Even if there were something to be done I'm certainly not in a position to do any of it.

My long-range life plan is to kill myself around the time I'm facing starvation

Assuming my supply of life-sustaining antidepressants doesn't get cut off before then

"Our dad could have stopped all this, but he was too busy posting about Cardiacs and YMO on www.ilxor.com" :)

It's fucked up, no-one cares, and I am p much with Silby here, but no reason to beat yourself up about it Frogbs. But yes, it is fucked up.

it will be interesting to see how the superpowers react when the first nine-figure-death drought hits

hopefully outright revolution and various bombings of factories/mass cattle slaughter but yknow

sucks to slaughter those poor cows though. but it's gonna have to happen. :(

defeatism and nihilism are generally not helpful or productive to achieving the necessary ends. there's things everybody can do. figure out what they are and do them.

maybe all it'll take will be the undersea eradication of the maldives. maybe that'll be enough. doubt it though

I would start firebombing cars but people keep getting mad at me on here when I advocate terrorism

anyway nihlism's great

I'm vegan. I turn off lights in *every* unoccupied room. I drive a used car, sparingly, and long to move to where I can rely on public transport and a bicycle. I'm voting for the greener of viable candidates every election. I've given up hobbies like overseas scuba diving as a) I couldn't justify the air travel emissions, and b) I got depressed looking at bleached, lifeless reefs. I'll never have children.

I don't think I've convinced a single other human being to become conscious. Of late, I've mostly spent my eco-conscious internet time explaining to teens/students that human extinction won't come in their lifetime, so they should step away from that ledge, but civilizational suicide will occur over the next two centuries on business as usual trajectories.

I wouldn't doubt that I'm on some lists for my sentiments, but Kaczynsk1 is looking a lot like a future folk hero.

my hope is that the first catastrophe will result in instant global reaction and shame

obviously we can all hope for no catastrophe but lol

cars are less of a big deal than big beef and big energy tbh

big deforestation maybe even worse idk

Is there gonna be a "first catastrophe"? Just gradual escalation of familiar catastrophes. Miami Beach is getting perfused by the sea as we speak. Various beach communities will collapse one storm at a time. Everybody'll just adapt to each new indignity I would think, until there are much fewer of us.

"much fewer of us"

^^ it's a start

You know LJ I thought the same thing for a while but it’s like, look around...we’re having extreme “once in a hundred year” weather events every month and I think it should be obvious everyone over the age of 40 that the weather is very different now. And yet the most powerful administration on the planet uses the report to take potshots at the UN and cast doubt on science. I do think there will come a time where even the right wingers accept that this is happening but I fear their reaction isn’t gonna be “let’s try and fix this”.

their reaction already is 'how can we make money off this'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/climate-change-will-get-worse-these-investors-are-betting-on-it

Our ancestors evolved to seek social status for better reproductive success, and Cassandras don't procreate. I didn't, and won't. As a species, we're just not adapted to prevent crises that take decades or centuries to fully emerge.

In 300 years, there will be a few hundred million survivors, eeking out a living on poor circumpolar soils. If they lose the capability to manufacture renewable energy infrastructure, they'll never reemerge from Renaissance-level technology, even as the heat declines over the next 100,000 years. The shallow fossil fuels will be gone, at least for our specie's lifetime.

I really wish there were more projects like the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, more pragmatic organizations than the Long Now Foundation, who are looking to preserve as much as possible through the bottleneck centuries. The heroes of this era will be the librarians, and preservation oriented biologists saving tissue samples.

And yet the most powerful administration on the planet uses the report to take potshots at the UN and cast doubt on science.

Well, yeah. Because the most powerful administration on the planet has an absolute tool, a monkey for president. Trump's administration doesn't "cast doubt on science": it doesn't get science at all but abuses it for self-glorification or gains.

You know this, though. 'Let's try and fix this' is off the table iirc.

wonder if there are actually some cia briefings where this shit is being discussed seriously, or is that ridiculously far-fetched

the bilderberg group all meeting up being like 'so this is actually going down huh, we'd better make sustainable energy the big dollar, everyone pivot yesterday'

Bilderberg's our only hope xp fuck me

n.b. i think some nations are doing this, esp nations like saudi arabia who will obviously cease to be habitable in a couple of decades

also lol

I don't think I've convinced a single other human being to become conscious.

Hey now, you and Karl have changed the way I live! I'm a vegetarian because of this thread 100%.

lmao xp

I'm pessimistic about nations or services or whatever discussing this seriously tbh. Today is way more pressing and stressful than tomorrow, and that even goes for Saudi-Arabia and the likes.

xp Leee, whoa!

nah i know for a fact that the saudi honchos are getting seriously into alternative energy

i don't know much inside baseball but i know that

word has it they also enjoy bombing yemen and assassinating journalists, but give the lads some credit