2020 Democratic presidential primary

well #1 clearly not gonna happen

why do u watch a garbage agent-provocateur hack like tarant... ah fuckit

My guess from watching the primaries: It's between Warren, Booker nd Harris. In order of likelihood

bezos notably absent

it'll be a governor not a senator

Bloomberg just announced a run, and Cuomo is obviously trying to set himself up for one. Both are delusional.

bloomberg does check off a very important box for me. i just can't trust anyone to represent me who isn't a billionaire

A FB friend keeps posting about how he thinks Bloomberg can win and I clown him every time. RN I'm trying to goad him into taking my $100 bet that he will not win a single primary. Easy money imo, I'm considering giving him odds. I'd go 10:1.

Bloomberg and Cuomo both definitely delusional, no nat'l audience wants to listen to either of them

I dunno anyone who likes Booker, dunno where his base would come from.

It's between Gillibrand and Harris and Warren and Biden I think.

Biden won't make it I don't think

I know he's polling well right now and all but there are too many skeletons in that dusty old fucker's closet

he's also just sooooo old and his main "advantage," which is very much an on-paper advantage, would be as a kind of "return to normalcy" candidate with spoken or unspoken "he could win the white working class" material, but more generally as "hey folks agree or disagree on policy we all can say that, this craziness in the white house, it's not supposed to be like this, what happened to (wipes away tear) decency?"

which might genuinely play in the general election, but it's not where the energy is in the primary electorate, at all. yes people loathe trump and every noxious fascist thing he standa for. but they're also fired up on fifty policy fronts. and ready for fired-up, victorious women and POC giving a giant fuck-you to the white supremacist party that's captured teh castle. biden just doesn't feel like the vessel for any of the unspoken redemptive dreams out there, where the trump nightmare in some topsy-turvy way later makes sense and feels resolved because it precipitates a new era of major progressive policy shifts. medicare for all is at the center of this but there's a lot more. basically i just don't see volunteers getting fired up to organize for joe biden, there's not a hook there that would inspire that with these other people in the running.

which might genuinely play in the general election, but it's not where the energy is in the primary electorate, at all.

agree with yr guys' posts - but Biden is going to very much try to thread this needle, and a certain portion of the party (the "sensible adults") are gonna buy it.

he'll get some big donors, some labor endorsements, but yeah he isn't going to play well with the primary base

and his opponents shouldn't have a hard time picking out the Anita Hill thing, his usurious credit card business ties, or any number of other blatantly disqualifying factors

It will never be Gillibrand xps

Booker and Harris are better bets. People in New Jersey like Booker, especially people who have met him. He’s a cool guy but a highly compromised centrist. Warren’s the one.

no more old men

Unless it’s someone cool.

why wouldn't Gillibrand make it idgi, she's positioned herself for the primary just the same as Booker, Warren and Harris

For this race it should be Warren. No one else has her consistency and passion on economic issues and that’s what matters. People need to be able to afford to live.

Why would someone support gillibrand? What’s her deal?

Also, fair or not, al franken supporters hate her and think shebrailroaded him for political gain.

*she railroaded

Ftr i am not agreeing with those people at all and support franken’s resignation, but it’s a real point of contention as franken is a popular figure among progressives

It doesn’t matter though because if I’m not happy with the candidates I will run myself

you should probably get started now

do you guys see Beto as a potential democratic nominee?

in 2020?

yes

no, not even remotely

i just ran a simulation of 1 trillion universes and none of them resulted in Beto running for president in 2020

lol

but if he is elected to the senate wouldn't he be in basically the same point in his career that Obama was in when he won?

don't know much about him so not sure what his ambitions are

sorry, that was rude. but no, not a chance. to run for president with only 2 years of legislative experience would take a freight train's worth of political momentum. even obama had 4 years as a US senator, and that was in addition to years of experience as a state senator, a reputation-cementing keystone speech at the DNC convention, and being barack fucking obama

also, him winning in texas is a slim chance, and if he gets it it's like doug jones. his job will be to hold the fuck onto that seat, build the party in texas, spend all his time visiting texas town halls and churches and quinceañeras, listening to issues etc. etc. the last thing anybody needs is some smooth-talking, non-waxen republican appearing in 2024 running on "while beto o'rourke is going to liberal parties in new york and LA, real texans are struggling..." etc.

It will never be Gillibrand

Gillenbrand is not well known outside the NE and will get to "introduce" herself to most democratic-leaning voters in 2019-20. She's a looks-good-on-paper type of candidate, who will fly or flounder based on her ability to construct a solid campaign, which will mostly depend on her ability to co-opt the most popular issues for her own, and to project likeability, sincerity and passion.

lol keynote, not keystone
xpost

Nobody even remembers or cares Al Franken used to be a senator outside Minnesota do they? Or that Gillibrand was even involved?

at least a couple of friends of mine from NY remember, and definitely hold it against her.

I think she would make a great president

I think if Kamala Harris can wash off enough the cop stink it’ll be her. symmetry demands it

I still wish it were gonna be Tammy Duckworth but I may be the only person talking her up anywhere.

really would love any of these - Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tammy Duckworth, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren - It should be a woman imo

I’m still rooting for an all-woman ticket. I think Gillibrand has the best shot at being at the top of said ticket. Would love to see Harris do a little more work at not being such a prosecutor, as I (and many, many others, with more at stake) have pointed out before. I think Warren wants to run so that she can bring attention to her signature issues, but she likes her current job and is really good at it.

Am still waiting for a potential candidate to start talking about what our foreign policy needs to look like, and I mean more than platitudes about allies.

It doesn’t matter though because if I’m not happy with the candidates I will run myself

Treesh between this and the cat diet book I am suspicious of your ability to follow through on great ideas.

sorry, that was rude. but no, not a chance. to run for president with only 2 years of legislative experience would take a freight train's worth of political momentum.

Cat President xp

Symmetry required, etc

Booker has skeletons for a youngish guy (con man, lifestyle)

Obama had two full years of being a US senator before he began campaigning in earnest for 2008. If Beto were to win this year, he'd have to immediately begin working towards 2020. No time spent as a Senator at all.

Harris is basically the Obama of this race, calendar wise.

that makes sense

I think Harris would be good against trump tbh. I don’t see her getting fazed or bamboozled.

Oh no, she'd welcome it