Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

Only redeeming thing that could happen at this point is that they sell it back to the first nations communities but who am I kidding.

Canada has been Alberta's oyster for far too long.

such an incredibly desperate move from the canadian gov't

it's times like these when i think can the gov't be this dumb or do they know something we don't?

either way, even from a business/oil perspective, this isn't a good move

further proves my point that this country is incredibly divided because oil benefits fewer and fewer people every decade

let's see how long it'll take people to rethink the economy before its collapse

From the Toronto Star:

But others were quick to criticize the decision. The Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation condemned the move, saying it would saddle taxpayers with costs that should be borne by the private sector.

“This decision represents both a colossal failure of the Trudeau government to enforce the law of the land, and a massive, unnecessary financial burden on Canadian taxpayers,” the federation said in a statement.

“This move sets a terrible precedent and signals to other prospective investors that large projects such as pipelines cannot be built by private industry in Canada,” it said.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May called it a “huge subsidy to fossil fuels.

“Kinder Morgan laughing all the way to the bank. KM gets $4.5 billion and walks away. Canada to raise money to build $7.4 billion project,” May said on Twitter.

You know you made a mistake when May and the CTF kinda agree on something.

more than maybe anything else he's done so far, Trudeau deserves to be crushed (electorally speaking) for this

if there's an event in your city protesting this today, please attend. for vancouverites it's 5.30, next to science world

MORE: This is what speakers at the #stopkindermorgan rally are seeing from the stage area. @CTVVancouver #bcpoli #canpoli pic.twitter.com/D4qu5pZXDh

— Penny Daflos (@PennyDaflos) May 30, 2018

Does the TMX announcement has any influence on the Ontario race?

I don't think it would (but I'm often wrong). Even if people were to confuse provincial parties with federal ones, the Tories and the NDP - the two frontrunners - both oppose this plan. (Unless maybe the Liberals experience a surge because people in Ontario are excited about this.)

Tooclosetocall is apparently projecting that the NDP could win a plurality of votes but the PCs could win a majority government, which seems obscene unless we stop whipping MPPs (but it might be because I am drunk tbf): http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/projections-update-for-may-30th-almost.html

That would be a perfect hellworld scenario

april 2018 article on how to deal with the energy sector

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-sustainable-way-forward-for-canadas-energy-sector/

Herein lies the real future for both Canada and the United States in energy competitiveness. Rather than building pipelines that will soon be shut, Canadians and Americans should be building a smart grid to carry renewable energy between the two countries. Canada’s renewable energy is vast right across the country. Alberta, fortunately, has vast wind and hydroelectric power potential to enable the province to continue to be a major exporter of energy, only this time with zero-carbon energy that is sustainable for the long haul.

With Donald Trump trying to break the Paris climate agreement and championing fossil-fuel development, it may seem convenient to Canada’s politicians to go along with the U.S. President’s fossil-fuel recklessness. Yet Mr. Trump will be gone and human-induced climate change will remain. Canada is clever enough to look beyond Mr. Trump to its true long-term interests and those of the world.

also canada-us trade wars are a go

https://forexlive.com/news/!/trudeau-says-us-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-totally-unacceptable-20180531

From https://slate.com/business/2018/05/trump-and-nafta-negotiations-arent-going-well-according-to-this-justin-trudeau-story.html

Trudeau told reporters that he thought negotiations over NAFTA were going well enough that last week he suggested a in-person meeting with Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto in Washington to hammer out a final deal. “We already had the bones of a very good agreement for all parties, and I thought it might be opportune for all of us to sit down for a few hours and discuss it,” he said. On Tuesday, Vice President Mike Pence called to say, sure, the White House would host the meeting, but only if Trudeau agreed in advance to add a five-year sunset clause to NAFTA, meaning that the pact would expire after five years unless the U.S., Canada, and Mexico all agreed to renew it. “So I answered that, unfortunately, if that was a precondition to our visit, I was unable to accept — and so we did not go to Washington for that day of negotiations.”

the Tories and the NDP ... both oppose this plan.

After typing this, it occurred to me that this might have been JT's intention: to get the Conservatives and NDP on the same side of an issue and allow him to possibly scoop up a mushy middle that is not ideologically dead-set against either pipelines or state ownership. His Dad did this: the 1974 budget was calculated to be too left-wing for the Tories and not left enough for the socialists, so that an election was forced and the Liberals won a majority. (I have no idea whether this will work or not for JT but just a thought.)

jesus fucking christttt

BREAKING: @Kathleen_Wynne will today concede she will no longer be premier after Thursday and urge voters to elect as many @OntLiberal MPPs as possible to prevent giving a majority PC or NDP government a "blank cheque," the @TorontoStar has learned. #onpoli

— Robert Benzie (@robertbenzie) June 2, 2018

CBC Poll Tracker is now predicting one (1) seat for the Liberals. (Ottawa-Vanier, I'm guessing?) They're also still predicting an NDP/PC tie in the popular vote and an 85% chance of a PC majority in the seat count, which is infuriating.

The cratering of Liberal support worries me because my suspicion is always that Liberal voters in the affluent suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa will pick the Tories every time if they have to choose between the Tories and NDP. (Note that Wynne expresses zero preference for either of those parties over the other.)

I never hated Wynne as much as most of the province does, until just now.

(Note that Wynne expresses zero preference for either of those parties over the other.)

That she's conceding (politicians rarely do, so that's unusually honest) but not at least suggesting--she doesn't need to urge, just suggest--her voters switch to the NDP is pretty bad.

The NDP should know their place is to support the Libs in a minority situation, really. #sorrynotsorry

Got a call from a Stop Ford group asking how I'd be voting and if I needed help getting to the polls or any information about when/how to vote.

Looking at the tooclosetocall projections, what's the Ontario equivalent of going to Michigan? Sarnia? Nipissing? Peterborough-Kawartha?

Holy shit, my riding (currently Liberal) listed as 99% likelihood to flip NDP. Goddamn.

I emailed the NDP today, asking if there's some kind of campaign to GOTV in swing ridings I could volunteer with this week. Does anyone happen to know of an organized campaign like this? Somehow there seemed to be a lot of online strategic voting campaigns when the Libs were in the lead in the last federal election.

(Leadnow is doing this.)

This is kind of fascinating - our government might be applying a version of strategic voting when it comes to the items they're slapping tariffs on: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/steel-tariff-maple-syrup-toilet-paper-1.4686833

Yeah Trudeau was really given a timely opportunity to become Canada's champion right after the TMX blunder. Good on him to use this to his full advantage, up to us to not forget.

interesting

did some digging around and found info on canada-us bilateral trade

http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/industry-markets-and-trade/international-agri-food-market-intelligence/united-states-and-mexico/canada-united-states-bilateral-trade/?id=1453911839961

trump's pulling an art of the deal shtick, if i were to guess

though it all looks like political theatre on both sides to me

my suspicion is always that Liberal voters in the affluent suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa will pick the Tories every time if they have to choose between the Tories and NDP.
― No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r)

680 had a poll this morning that said, post-Wynne's concession, Ford's back in a majority position.

Tbf, the CBC Poll Tracker has been predicting a 77-85% chance of a PC majority the whole time. If anything, the numbers have dropped more recently. I gather that the Tooclosetocall riding-level predictions are pretty sketchy. The most we can probably do at this point is vote NDP (maybe Liberal if you're in the type of suburban riding that could go Lib or PC but never NDP), phonebank swing ridings, and hope. Unless anyone knows a Russian hacker.

fuck Thursday is gonna suck sooooo much goddamn it, I'm already mentally preparing myself

what's truly sickening is guys like THIS are going to be running the province. he's also apparently being sued for running a fake immigration consultancy scam.

If anyone's in downtown Ottawa right now, there's an anti-KM 'snap action' in front of Catherine McKenna's riding office at 107 Catherine in 20m (at 11 am). V short notice but I just checked my email and decided to go.

By all accounts, my riding will likely/hopefully be sticking with its (incumbent) NDP candidate, but our PC candidate is this gem:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-ontario-andrew-lawton-pc-1.4653131

Tbc, I don't think those are unbeatable odds. If we can block a Tory majority, we will see either a progressive coalition or a PC minority govt that will probably be fairly ineffectual and short-lived.

for now i am hoping we see more charges out of the 407 theft and the riding nomination shenanigans. police just announced they are investigation the PC candidate in Scarb/Guildwood for threatening someone who asked why he was skipping debates. might not be before the election, but if more people have to step down could affect the majority/minority status.
right now it's close in doug's riding - just donated to his NDP rival. i could accept a PC majority if doug manages to lose his seat. pretty sure Wynne is going to lose hers.

If we can block a Tory majority, we will see either a progressive coalition or a PC minority govt

A "progressive coalition" where one party actively supports bosses over unions and workers would not be a progressive coalition tbh.

Bill 148 is one of the most progressive pieces of labour legislation I've seen put forth by a major government in recent times. I'm not even sure any NDP-led government has been much better on labour issues. I don't know what better governing partner we could expect for a left-wing party.

There are some undeniably decent reforms in there but there's absolutely no reason a genuine left party wouldn't demand more/better, and without strike-quashing state intervention.

I'll settle for a liberal coalition if "progressive" is too strong of a word!

lmao I am probably too persnickety about these things

Voted.

Wow:

some fascinating new polling data from @abacusdataca: 20% of ontarians have already voted, and the race is too close to call: "Based on our read of the numbers, we think the race is impossible to predict." #onpoli #election2018

— Steve Paikin (@spaikin) June 4, 2018

The widow and children of Toronto mayor Rob Ford have sued Doug Ford alleging he has deprived them of millions of dollars, including shares in the family business and a life insurance policy left behind to support his family.

In a $16.5-million lawsuit, filed Friday in Superior Court, Renata Ford also alleges that Doug Ford is a “negligent” business manager whose decisions have led to a steady decrease in the value of the Ford company, Deco Labels. Despite setting his sight on a political career, Doug has continued to receive “extravagant compensation,” even though Deco is losing money, Renata claims in her court filings.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-widow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html

this would sink almost any normal human - but i have a feeling, since he can pull off a fucking majority with even 34% of the vote, that most people voting PC would still take a millionaire ripping off the wife and children of his deceased brother while also tanking the family business over the "commies".
a good chunk of his base probably think what he's doing is some great "alpha male" power move.

oh yeah this won't impact the election at all, just thought it worthy of note

I wonder if it might even help him by helping to distance him from Rob's baggage.

Voted. Now to despair.

Indeed.

Out of curiosity, is there any precedent in Canadian history for a party winning a majority government without even winning a plurality of the popular vote?