Democratic (Party) Direction

Americans love shutting down institutions -- just not the ones whose mandate includes state violence.

"Abolish ICE" sounds radical because it has "abolish" in it. "Let's shutter this recently created agency with an overly broad mandate and rethink the federal government's role in enforcing the law in this area" is the moderate conservative position on the CFPB.

— Official Centrism (@pareene) March 10, 2018

McElwee just popped up again w/ some pals on the NYT op-ed page to tackle "the missing Obama millions."

We would hardly urge Democratic strategists to abandon Obama-to-Trump voters. However, Obama-to-nonvoters are a relatively liberal segment of the country who have largely been ignored. They are mostly young and nonwhite, and they represent an important part of the Democratic Party’s demographic future. Given the likelihood that many Obama-to-Trump voters will remain in Republican ranks, it is hard to imagine how Democrats can win elections if this group remains on the sidelines.

To explore the characteristics and attitudes of these voters, we used data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a large survey with a sample of more than 64,000 adults. We grouped all 2012 voters into one of five categories, three of which we focus on in this essay: Obama-to-Trump, Obama-to-nonvoter and Obama-to-Clinton. (We used validated voter turnout data rather than self-reported turnout, which tends to overstate actual voter participation and which one of us used in a preliminary analysis.)

So who were the Obama-to-nonvoters? Fifty-one percent were people of color, compared with 16 percent of Obama-to-Trump voters and 34 percent of Obama-to-Clinton voters. Twenty-three percent of Obama-to-nonvoters were under 30, compared with 11 percent of Obama-to-Trump voters and 10 percent of Obama-to-Clinton voters. More than 60 percent of Obama-to-nonvoters make less than $50,000 a year, compared with 45 percent of Obama-to-Clinton voters and 52 percent of Obama-to-Trump voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/opinion/sunday/obama-trump-voters-democrats.html

Social democracy dies in darkness. This terrible bank bill is a reminder that the left will always have trouble outmuscling the Democrats’ Wall Street wing in policy fights that happen far from the media spotlight. One upshot of this is that the personal ideology of the next Democratic standard-bearer matters an awful lot. Progressives may have enough clout to force the next Democratic president to push major legislation that reflects their priorities, regardless of his or her own inclinations; but he or she is likely to enjoy much greater flexibility when it comes to cabinet appointments.

Given these realities, the case for the left to back a 2020 candidate who’s consistently evinced a personal, ideological commitment to combating Wall Street power (like, say, Elizabeth Warren) over one who’s only recently had their “come-to-populism” moment (like, say, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, or virtually every other rumored 2020 hopeful) seems strong.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/democrats-are-moving-left-except-when-youre-not-looking.html

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/democrats-free-trade-fault-lines/index.html

Sally Albright, ladies & gentlemen:

How A Twitter Fight Over Bernie Sanders Revealed A Network Of Fake Accounts

One Democratic Party consultant said an unnamed client controlled many of these accounts.

By Paul Blumenthal

pic.twitter.com/jMUjxzwFsk

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) March 14, 2018

(Cross-post to Twitter thread)

honestly the enthusiasm in this crowd is almost terrifying

The end of @SenSanders 1st speech in DC #NationalWalkoutDay pic.twitter.com/zaBWoaGrCS

— People For Bernie (@People4Bernie) March 14, 2018

I've never heard of Sally Albright, but Harvard's Carl M. Loeb University Professor Laurence Tribe, one of the half-dozen-most-cited professors of American constitutional and public law, is definitely a fake conspiracy sock puppet just like that other raving nobody with a twitter account who definitely doesn't have a Master's in International Affairs and Technology Policy and definitely has never worked for a futures consultant to Fortune 10 companies or the Central Intelligence Agency.

Oh and NYU Gallatin grad and former Drug Policy Alliance and Rock the Vote blogger Paul Blumenthal definitely isn't a former employee of Manafort-linked Bernie Sanders campaign manager Tad Devine.

jesus christ

how many BernieBros have you personally strangled, gabbneb?

Was Tribe the one who had an elaborate fantasy where Hillary could become President in mid 2017?

X-post— I like the data work and analysis McElwee presented in NY Time op-ed re Obama voters who stayed home in 2016. More data work still needed re voters for Conor Lamb in PA, but some folks already trying to spin it various ways based on he being a moderate Dem on some issues

Tribe was the one who said Russia shot down a passenger plane to hit a dissident not on the plane, right?

This is the Tribe tweet in question:

Not at all. It looks like Russia picked Tillerson to be a Putin puppet, then pushed Trump to fire Tillerson when he proved to be an unreliable puppet. No mystery there. https://t.co/nqYGlZvZ5g

— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) March 14, 2018

No matter his credentials, he is clearly unreliable.

I've never heard of Sally Albright, but Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital Ben Carson, pioneer in neurosurgery & recipient of more than 60 honorary doctorate degrees, dozens of national merit citations, and over 100 neurosurgical publications, is definitely a fake conspiracy sock puppet

clip of football hitting Hans Moleman Moo Vaughn in the crotch

btw, Moo's last post in this thread absolutely identifies him as gabbneb imo

was there ever any doubt?

I entertained doubts. I like to take my time when deciding if a new poster is bedsheet thrown over a banned poster.

a bed sheet with mooncalf eyes

did the benbbag variation actually get banned?

I've never heard of Sally Albright, but Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital Ben Carson, pioneer in neurosurgery & recipient of more than 60 honorary doctorate degrees, dozens of national merit citations, and over 100 neurosurgical publications, is definitely a fake conspiracy sock puppet

― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, March 14, 2018 6:12 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Just like Tribe is eminently qualified to comment on American legal matters and to some degree more widely on public affairs, Carson is eminently qualified to perform neurosurgery, but I'm not aware of any administrative or policy experience that would qualify him to run HHS, let alone HUD or the Executive Office of the President. Garland, with more training than either or most in the interrelationship of international affairs and technology and in a professional position to have developed intelligence community relationships or at least insight, and who I've read mostly accidentally, purports to share your view of credentials - https://www.ericgarland.co/2011/03/25/megatrend-credentials-suck/ - but nevertheless rightly regards those who criticize twitter analysts, including journalists of various descriptions, as often relatively lacking in relevant knowledge - https://www.ericgarland.co/2017/05/11/game-theory-citizen-journalists-media/) - such that it's more than reasonable to suggest that journalistic standards (not necessarily adhered to by the critics) and sources (not necessarily possessed by the critics) are hardly an exclusive means for obtaining the truth or perceptive analysis.

Eric Garland is opportunistic slime and you should feel bad for big-upping him in any way.

You misspelled Edward Snowden

Remind me of when Snowden dismissed all substantive left protest or criticism as being primarily a psy-op (including BLM)

The credentials for both Garland and Tribe might have earned them the benefit of the doubt for a while, but come on, they've pissed that away.

of course gabbneb is the kind of clueless dork who likes eric garland

Are you suggesting that the Special Counsel's office of the United States Department of Justice has not published an indictment alleging that a Russian psy-op infiltrated Black Lives Matter groups? Or are you suggesting that facts can only be obtained from people whose ideological orientation you share?

you should feel bad for big-upping him in any way.

― Simon H., Wednesday, March 14, 2018 6:56 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

who I've read mostly accidentally

― Moo Vaughn, Wednesday, March 14, 2018 6:53 PM (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Reading is Fundamental

Read my post again. Foreign elements will certainly try to exacerbate existing fissures but they're a minor force compared to the fissures themselves.

The fact of how and why you read him hasn't stopped you from droning on about his supposedly impressive expertise.

sorry everyone this is a stupid fuckin argument to be having especially itt, imagine defending Eric Garland in the year of our lord 2018, bye

Are you suggesting that the Special Counsel's office of the United States Department of Justice has not published an indictment alleging that a Russian psy-op infiltrated Black Lives Matter groups? Or are you suggesting that facts can only be obtained from people whose ideological orientation you share?

― Moo Vaughn, Wednesday, March 14, 2018 12:04 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

eric garland has suggested that BLM and events like Ferguson were wholly Russian organized.

Was Tribe the one who had an elaborate fantasy where Hillary could become President in mid 2017?

― louise ck (milo z), Wednesday, March 14, 2018 12:23 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Honestly it's amazing how much this election seems to be revealing respected figures as either frauds or people who have now been driven mad.

lol

Just like Tribe is eminently qualified to comment on American legal matters and to some degree more widely on public affairs, Carson is eminently qualified to perform neurosurgery, but I'm not aware of any administrative or policy experience that would qualify him to run HHS, let alone HUD or the Executive Office of the President.

I've quoted Tribe on ISDS & in work I've done--he does well there. what the fuck makes him "qualified" to wildly speculate on palace intrigue?

Look at "Morning" Joe praising Joe Biden as a plausible nominee as if trying to convince himself he hasn't been mad since the Clinton impeachment

eric garland has suggested that BLM and events like Ferguson were wholly Russian organized.

― Louis Jägermeister (jim in vancouver), 14. marts 2018 20:10 (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm not sure this is true, though? I read the thread, not just the one tweet everyone shared, and he seemed to be speculating local right-wing politicians let it happen. Or is it something else, I would not be particularly surprised.

The fact of how and why you read him hasn't stopped you from droning on about his supposedly impressive expertise.

― Simon H., Wednesday, March 14, 2018 7:07 PM (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I haven't referred to his "impressive expertise," I've suggested that he has more relevant expertise as to the matter in contention - online psy-ops - than this particular critic. I had to look up both for purposes of making that determination, but research confirmed that he's one of many such who are so relatively lacking, and with interested-party ties that he does not disclose.

Aside, do you have an explanation as to why exit polls indicate that 5% of black men in Florida voted for Jill Stein, more than the percentage of whites who did so in that state or IA, WI, MI, PA, or NH?

when the psy-ops are online

eric garland has suggested that BLM and events like Ferguson were wholly Russian organized.

― Louis Jägermeister (jim in vancouver), 14. marts 2018 20:10 (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm not sure this is true, though? I read the thread, not just the one tweet everyone shared, and he seemed to be speculating local right-wing politicians let it happen. Or is it something else, I would not be particularly surprised.

― Frederik B, Wednesday, March 14, 2018 12:24 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this was tainted with russomadness too. this situation surely "wouldn't be allowed to happen" by the prominent and rich people of the surrounding community if they were not unduly influenced by republican/russian pressure to not intervene in the situation

Yeah, sounds like him.

More generally I have seen the tactic of using any intimation of russian support or influence to imply that the subject of that support is per se tainted/dirty. A highly educated facebook friend of mine, a grown woman who is a partner in a law firm, keeps posting about how people who voted for Bernie "supported a guy who was backed by an enemy of the U.S." and that sort of thing.

Yeah. You see that as well in the Sally Albright story.

Btw, the 538 Emergency Podcast on Conor Lamb is really good. Says for instance that the generic congressional ballot might be underestimating Dem enthusiasm.

Nate Silver explains it here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-enthusiasm-gap-could-turn-a-democratic-wave-into-a-tsunami/

Just want to say that I feel really dumb for not getting the Moo Vaughn / moveon.org connection until someone else pointed it out

At the Presidential level, the Democrats should have two primary electoral concerns:

1. Restore the interest of mostly non-white and/or young voters who were energized by the candidacy of a partly-African-American Gen-X'er but not by several white Baby Boomers without facility in those communities who preceded or followed him

2. Restore the confidence of more frequent and mostly white, middle-american, and middle-aged-to-older voters who are unbeholden to party or even ideology but driven by an interest in improving their material and corporeal well-being that does not necessarily translate to either specific substantive policy preferences or even a general interest in direct receipt of government assistance

Both of these certainly have something to do with various sorts of policy, but I don't believe either has as much to do with the identity/tone/emphasis/style of the candidate, especially to the degree that the two concerns may increasingly be perceived as in opposition to one another to the degree that a candidate becomes more specific in response to them.