US Politics November 2017

Wow, without the participation of "top Democrats," the administration will be unable to... uh, will be prevented from... uh, will find it harder to, uh....

Keeping the government open requires 60 votes. Now, if your argument is that Trump wants to be seen as responsible for a government shutdown next month, that's fine, but I don't believe it. McConnell for damn sure doesn't.

xp

Nancy & Chuck say it’s a waste of time to talk to Trump, and cancel meeting today at White House pic.twitter.com/00lT6fi4Cz

— Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) November 28, 2017

Trump's moves are pretty obvious if that happens - blame the Dems, whip up his base. But it'll be a game of chicken re: who caves first, and I suspect the Dems actually care about keeping the gov't running more than the plutocrat anarchists on the other side. Trump v clearly does not give a fuck if there even is a gov't, apart from a militarized force that kills brown people.

xp

are we sure that's how it's going to be covered/perceived though (and I don't mean by Breitbart, I mean by like CNN)? if the GOP theoretically had all its ducks in a row for keeping the government running and the Dems denied them the 8 additional votes or whatever they needed to hit 60, wouldn't the Dems look like the bad guys?

as we saw with previous GOP shenanigans in this regard, the obstructionists get blamed, not the party in power. But idk w Trump the political calculus is a little different. It def doesn't testify to his "dealmaking" skills if he can't even keep the gov't open.

if the GOP theoretically had all its ducks in a row for keeping the government running

this is a v big "if", btw, because currently they definitely don't.

i know the Dems want to tie this to things like the Dreamers that are very right and good but I don't know if you can sell a government shutdown on that principle. maybe disaster relief?

Ok y'all but nobody voted for him thinking he would make deals with Democrats to keep the government open

they were only interested in his ability to make "deals" that cause lib tears and that harm people of color

The GOP has clearly been deeply wounded by their six years of obstructionism under Obama. Hopefully something will go their way someday, poor lil guys.

i do think the calculus is different when the president is on record as saying "what this country needs is a good shutdown", and his party controls government (yes, not to the extent required to prevent a shutdown without democratic help, but that's a detail that will be lost on most people)

i do think the calculus is different when the president is on record as saying "what this country needs is a good shutdown", and his party controls government (yes, not to the extent required to prevent a shutdown without democratic help, but that's a detail that will be lost on most people)

Also when the president is as staggeringly unpopular as Trump.

maybe disaster relief?

this is a huge deal, esp considering one of the states impacts is Texas, ie home of Senate majority lickspittle John Cornyn

We need disaster relief from Trump, they should put that in the budget.

i think it's difficult to predict how a shutdown would be perceived right now. democrats are generally more shocked and insulted by a shutdown than republicans. breitbart right-wingers believe that the government SHOULD stay shut down - that is, the "essential" fed workforce could stay to keep the lights on, and everyone that is "non-essential" should just fuck off for life.

whether it's intended or not, and putting aside the idea of truth, one of the primary messages of the trump administration to the US public is that the federal government really doesn't matter that much to the everyday person. trump can appoint cabinet members who are openly opposed to the agencies that they head (pruitt, mulvaney, perry), threaten to pull out of international treaties that were thought to be sacrosanct, , gut the state department, praise mass murderers (duterte) and repeatedly insult longtime allies...and yet to his average supporter, nothing much has changed. the sky hasn't fallen, they probably have some sort of job, the holidays are here and family is around. things are ok.

influence and power doesn't just dissipate - it shifts to other entities. corporatism is nothing new, of course, but it really seems to have accelerated in the trump administration. even the core purposes of government - to provide rule of law and protection - are being handed over to the private sector. when facebook/twitter/google were taken to task for their platform's role in the election re: fake news, they sent their lawyers to congress, not the CEOs. that's not necessarily a measure of how seriously they take the issue, but it is an indication of how seriously they take the threat of criticism from congress. the questions from the congress reps reinforced that - the message seemed to be that the tech corps should do a better job regulating themselves, or else congress would be forced to begin thinking about the possibility of doing something. maybe.

i have a wackier version of this dumb theory that involves corporate-dependent virtual reality, and who would be the de facto "government" in such environments, but i'll spare the thread. but in general, i think we're all, collectively, witnessing the accelerating usurping of the governmental system as the protector of basic rights. every govt shutdown reinforces that to some degree, as everyday norms who don't pay attention to politics hear something about a govt shutdown but also notice that their everyday lives don't seem to be affected that much. there are short-term political consequences and it can lead to democrats "winning" the shutdown, but these shutdowns also inflict more lasting damage by alienating civilians from the government.

imo

your second paragraph pretty much summarizes the reagan administration also. not a criticism, more of "i pray we come out better from this this time around."

Drudge, Olbermann and Scarborough all tweeting that something big is coming down. Olbermann is ending all his political commentary, and Scarborough says he's "taking down all Trump tweets. Too 2017."

Lucy with the football: "the oppo dump/pee tape is imminent! tick tick tick"

xposts yeah, it's definitely not a new development, but i do think it's accelerating. and also - very anecdotally - no one seems to care!

part of it is the nature of the threats to our democracy really are changing in ways that the current configuration of our government doesn't seem equipped to combat. i think the facebook/twitter/fake news thing is a good example of the dilemma. should the government be screening all social media posts and trying to identify which ones are fake? that seems like a terrible idea and a terrible precedent, after all, what if some evil incompetent administration somehow took power...oh wait, we're already in hell. what else can the government do, though? rely on tech giants to police their own platforms? maybe, but that's a thorny issue even for politicians well-versed in modern technology. and let's face it, a disturbing portion of our representatives have no fucking clue about any of this stuff. some of them don't even use email because they decided in the early 90s that they were never going to even try to learn because it was too hard.

I do think "normies" who don't generally care/have any idea of what the gov't does do notice when their checks stop coming, when parks are closed, and when services break down.

and they'll be furious at the democrats for making it hppen

If nothing else, they'll probably perk up once the nukes start falling.

when parks are closed

This was played for demagogic lulz last time around.

Very few people are driving up to a national park (e.g. Yellowstone) and getting turned away. They have gates, you drive on a specific access road, there are services requiring staff, you plan to go there, you have reservations for stuff.

But consider something like the WWII memorial - a bunch of sculptures in a readily accessible location, three yards from a public sidewalk. Having it closed off by inadequate barricades just provided a talking point for Limbaugh & co.: "The Democrats are keeping WWII vets away from the WWII memorial!!!eleventy!!!

Or what bg said

i'm just saying, would it be that weird if in 2024 Amazon runs for president? just imagine - vote for Amazon for president, and they'll pledge to reorganize the structure of the government, re-invest all profits back into the company/country, free amazon prime for 2 years for every citizen who writes 5 or more reviews and agrees to buy certain necessities using Alexa, and every two months there's a national referendum on which Amazon Original tv pilots are greenlighted for production.

i'm being stupid as usual but imagine this choice right now, in alabama:

- roy moore
- liberal jones
- two years of Amazon Prime for free, plus Amazon runs Alabama now

does anyone think Amazon would get < 30% of the vote?

some of them don't even use email because they decided in the early 90s that they were never going to even try to learn because it was too hard.

this was smart

that's why we elected them

lol it was kind of prescient

On the topic of normal people and their political interaction, I feel like I'm an outlier talking to a couple friends who are pretty wired into politics. They're relatively mainstream - one friend mentioned he listens to a Rachel Maddow podcast and the Young Turks or w/e daily, and another was talking about Alec Baldwin being great at a state democrats benefit dinner

idk, none of that stuff appeals to me and aspects of it turn me off

Maddow and Baldwin are awful

KM, there is basically no bottom to the despair-inducing absurdity and stupidity that I expect to see within my lifetime (even if I drop dead within, say, the next couple of years), so I think your suppositions are beyond plausible.

Melania, our great and very hard working First Lady, who truly loves what she is doing, always thought that “if you run, you will win.” She would tell everyone that, “no doubt, he will win.” I also felt I would win (or I would not have run) - and Country is doing great!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 28, 2017

this is charmingly gratuitous

so much anxiety

first time he's praised Melania since forcing her to sign the prenup

Maddow seems overblown but relatively innocuous, Baldwin really feels like his real life existence is a cliched version of the roles he has in movies -- the old alpha white guy who isn't at all with it, but has an exaggerated sense of self-importance that other people roll with because older white men still notionally signify power.

Country is doing great!

Well, Brad Paisley and Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert have all had pretty strong hits, so that's a'ight. Maybe that Las Vegas concert was kind of a bummer note, but still, doing great! Thanks, Trump!

counterpoint

Grammy Nominations: No Country Artists in Top Categories for First Time in 14 Years https://t.co/nmwDuUrKMS via @variety

— Chris Willman (@ChrisWillman) November 28, 2017

agrees to buy certain necessities using Alexa, and every two months there's a national referendum on which Amazon Original tv pilots are greenlighted for production.

For further reference, see also: Infinite Jest, David Foster Wallace

Yeah, I do keep thinking that the Year of the Depend Adult Undergarment must be right around the corner. It no longer seems unlikely.

who truly loves what she is doing

so was today's twitter tick tock reveal that the Turkish guy flipped?

Old Lunch, my fave is still Year of the Whisper-Quiet Maytag Dishmaster, which iirc is 2006(?). Subsidized Time doesn't reach up to the present day.

that seems to be drudge's only big news that wasn't about the grammys

both sides are bad

https://theintercept.com/2017/11/28/blackwaters-erik-prince-met-with-ceo-of-russian-direct-investment-fund/

just a very chill normal meeting where the real-life equivalent of big boss from metal gear solid attempts to open a back-channel communication between two enemy states over a beer on a paradise island

tax bill clears committee 12-11 on partisan lines

so Johnson's been appeased somehow

shit's gonna pass

Sen Susan Collins says “a lot of my concerns are being addressed,” leaning toward supporting the tax bill after meeting with Trump and Senate Republicans

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 28, 2017

there's this sad/annoying dynamic in the Senate involving "moderate"/"swing" votes clearly reveling in their opportunity to hog the spotlight and play-act as "serious legislators with principles" or whatever, just ego-stroking nonsense that more often than not results in (surprise) strictly partisan votes. McCain does this all the time. Lieberman did it too.

can't wait until the economy tanks because of this bullshit, and we MUST cut medicare / social security because OMG spending problem!

this won't tank the economy

at least, not immediately and not directly. corporate malfeasance usually tanks the economy.

if i'm the dems i say, 'fine, pass this shit. none of us are voting to keep the government open next month, and you need 60 votes. fuck you'