US Politics November 2017

not a militia

why is the president yelling at us?

ICE arrest rates are terrible and going up but bear in mind they haven't even reached the peaks of the Obama admin yet

For some reason last week I thought the Alabama election was soon. Holy shit -- the GOPs got two more weeks of this farrago.

They can change the date of the election. While they kick that can, they can get Moore out of the race. And any Republican who isn't a pedophile can beat Jones.

Even Bentley could probably come back, since his affair was with a consenting adult.

The stupid "GWB, amateur painter" profiles were more of a rehabilitation attempt than those tweets/pieces, most of which didn't put forward "I guess GWB wasn't as bad as we thought" but rather "holy shit, I didn't actually think it could be this much worse than GWB"

― the Hannah Montana of the Korean War (DJP),

xp his paintings are getting better, and the subjects he paints are soldiers he sent to die, so at least he's being haunted in his dreams

They can change the date of the election.

I'm not aware of the nuances of the Governor's powers in this regard, but I have a hard time believing there would not immediately be federal lawsuits about changing the date of an election just because the party in power suspects it might lose. I mean, that's blatantly unconstitutional.

xp

No, I think she can do it, because it's a special election.

Whenever I see a picture of Mnuchin and his wife I want to punch everything, but don't, because I am struggling so hard to keep from vomiting.

on top of that, there's absolutely nothing in Moore's history or character that indicates he will step aside under any circumstances. Quite the opposite, in fact.

xp

xpost The problem is that absentee ballots already went out, so I don't see how you wouldn't be messing with those votes.

it seems at the very least there would be grounds to challenge any decision to change the date based on voter disenfranchisement

saw this in the hill, was wondering if it really could happen:

"However, if the Alabama Republican Party disqualifies Moore as its nominee before the election and he still wins the race, the election results would be nullified."

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/360396-gop-hopes-trump-will-save-alabama-senate-seat

Disqualifies how?

am i right that even if moore drops out they will still have to have a write-in candidate?

xpost
that's my question. what would it take, and what makes it legal?

GOP's appeal to voters:

Please vote for the serial child molester we have disqualified as too disgusting to countenance. we're pretty sure we can rummage around and find someone less nauseating to put in his place after this whole sham election is nullified. Trust us on this, ok?

What voter could reject an appeal like that?

he still wins the race

a big "if" at this point, if that NRSC poll is to be believed

am i right that even if moore drops out they will still have to have a write-in candidate?

yes, they cannot put someone else on the ballot, write-in is their only option

I actually was going to raise the point Simon did, but it's well known that Democrats don't think much about dead furriners, and 80% of their objections to Trump are on style/vulgarity. (more like 40% here)

lol the Dilbert guy makes this argument

yes, they cannot put someone else on the ballot, write-in is their only option

Which means they're counting on Alabama Republican voters to be able to write. Congratulations, Senator Jones!

(Yeah, fuck it - the day I've had, I'm making an illiterate-hicks joke. FP away.)

ok then

i don't think my view is the same as Dilbert Guy, who i imagine thinks the vulgarity arguments are all that's there

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/

Jones will have to do amazingly well to win. The majority of Alabama white voters haven’t voted for a Democrat since the 1970s.

yea I'm not trusting those polls just yet. as we saw with Trump a dozen times over, once this story is out of the news cycle for a full 24 hours his numbers will shoot right back up

Akin a better analogy than Trump imo, Moore isn't throwing out daily distractions to goose news cycles the way Trump does

wow ok so they really have no good options huh

1) moore stays in & wins - GOP has to do some kind of reckoning w/ this and chaos ensues - i dont really know how this ends, but it will be fun to watch?*
2) moore stays in & loses to jones - hello senator jones
3) moore drops out and some other GOP shithead (lol sessions) has to do a write-in campaign - hello senator jones

*unless moore wins and subsequently does some kind of apology for "past events 30 years ago" and everyone forgets and moves on, equivalent to "locker room talk" and now we have another predator in DC

Trump could easily do something to dominate the news cycle for the next two weeks while everyone forgets about this

I don't see how that would goose Moore's poll numbers but I guess we're going to find out, since it's almost guaranteed that Trump will do some dumb attention-getting shit between now and then

I mean sheesh it's already been a couple weeks since his last tantrum

Don't worry: should he win in December, Jones will lose in six years.

I'll take it

Roy Moore atty to hold presser at 5 pm et about allegations

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 15, 2017

The majority of Alabama white voters haven’t voted for a Democrat since the 1970s.

We don't need them to vote for Jones. We only need them to (a) stay home our of disgust, or (b) split their votes between Moore, Strange, Brooks, Sessions, and -heck- Col. Sanders.

Ivanka has released a statement!

Gunna be fun to see what terms he uses instead of literally just complaining about haters & fake friends

I don't see how that would goose Moore's poll numbers but I guess we're going to find out, since it's almost guaranteed that Trump will do some dumb attention-getting shit between now and then

Republicans have the memory of a goldfish

Brett Talley, the Alabama lawyer Donald Trump has nominated to be a federal district judge, seems to have written 16,381 posts—more than 3½ per day—on the University of Alabama fan message board TideFans.com. As BuzzFeed has reported, a user who is almost certainly Talley posted for years under the handle BatmanBoston.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/11/15/trump_nominee_brett_talley_appears_to_have_defended_the_first_kkk.html

Gonna say that if Mueller decided to release news of another indictment or guilty plea right about now, things'd be...entertaining.

My predix:

As a special election, this will be the only item on the ballot. It's just possible that knowing Moore is a child molester will create enough disgust or malaise among Alabama republican voters to let Jones in the side door. If they turn out in their usual numbers, Jones will lose and Moore will go to the Senate.

If more and more women keep coming forward beyond the election, it's just possible we might see Moore expelled, but the odds favor that once he's in he'd be there the full six years. Everyone will despise him, much as they despise Trump, but they'll bite their tongues and let him stay.

I can't believe this is real

President Trump stops his speech to search for water
cc: @marcorubio pic.twitter.com/26hR5w7ZIe

— Pat Ward (@WardDPatrick) November 15, 2017

Similar,but needs work on his form.Has to be done in one single motion & eyes should never leave the camera. But not bad for his 1st time https://t.co/s49JtyRo3S

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 15, 2017

i had to watch rubio's again, it is amazing esp bc you see his mouth drying up well before he reaches for the water

trump doing that dumb fucking squinty eyes thing trying to look serious, fuck off

As some Dubya flunky pointed out on MSNBC, this shows how poorly run the White House is -- you're supposed to keep uncapped water for the prez!

trump's consistent incompetence is stunning; it's so dependable

decent line from Her Self

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Wednesday that allegations that Roy Moore was banned from an Alabama mall are the latest indication that the GOP candidate shouldn’t serve in the Senate. “I’ve got a general rule, if you can’t be in a mall, you shouldn’t be in the Senate,” Graham told reporters.

zingers are all he's good for

Don't worry: should he win in December, Jones will lose in six years.

― morning wood truancy (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), 15. november 2017 22:21 (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Three years. It's a special election, and the seat is up in 2020.

Lindsey Graham channeling the cadence of the trainer from Dodgeball there.

Three years. It's a special election, and the seat is up in 2020.

― Frederik B, Wednesday, November 15, 2017

better!

def better

⚡️GOP tax debate just got more complicated with surprise opposition of Sen Ron Johnson. WI Republican says he opposes current Senate bill; its changed treatment of ``pass through'' businesses isn't satisfactory. `We're moving in the wrong direction,' he says, per @KaustuvBasu1

— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) November 15, 2017