hurricane coming...

I have grown tired of the non-Florida internet brigade chiding people (in non-voluntary or mandatory evac areas) for not evacuating.

I've digested more data on this storm than I could in a lifetime, and yeah, my decision to ride it out here (which I made for reasons having to do with my folks) doesn't put my chances of death at 0%, but neither does me choosing to drive away from it.

Took some solace in re-reading last year's Matthew events and realizing the Euro model as well as the UK model caused the 10/4 panic that caused everybody to say Orlando was fucked before the forecast moved back east over the next two days and the storm wobbled. just preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

My company might have pissed me off royally for other reasons this year, but they have been gold-star in how they've handled this. They're giving their employees free water bottles tomorrow (one case per employee - they have 1,000). My boss told me I can take off whenever.

Alfred, stay safe man - I know this new track is probably scary as hell for you down there.

all Floridians stay safe.

everybody stay safe.

somebody give me a horse tranquilizer

Good luck y'all. The idea of hurricanes scares the shit out of me as someone who's always lived inland, can't imagine the dread of waiting to see what happens.

yeah, I was tempted to jet today after the 5 pm forecast (the stories about the roads being jammed are a bit overblown - my friend left this morning and already made it to NC before stopping for the night) - but I figured the anxiety of worrying about my family members I left behind would ruin the relief of being away from it.

Tennessee showed up in the cone briefly! TENNESSEE (granted for a weakened storm but that's where like everybody goes cos "it won't go there".

good luck man.

One bad piece of advice I have seen bouncing around facebook is to keep your important documents in the dishwasher to somehow waterproof them. There have been others pointing out that this is not a sound idea, but not nearly as much as I have seen the original idea shared.

A friend who lived through Katrina made a list of things he wished he had been better prepared with:

batteries
mosquito spray
mosquito netting
board games
flashlights
battery powered fan
a generator and gas

Also seconding the warning that if you're stuck out power for more than a day, take the time to clean out your fridge before it turns into a nightmare.

Best wishes for all you guys.

amen

good mourning!

The best advice I have heard given, besides leaving, is to thoroughly take pictures of everything, for insurance purposes.

This thing is huge. My best friend's family, including a paraplegic Uncle, were just evacuated from their home in Georgia. And I was reading about the problem with all the construction cranes, which are so big they can't be disassembled in time. People living in buildings under construction have been told to just leave, because the winds could simply blow those giant cranes over. Imagine the damage of one of those things falling down?

My debate now is whether to ride the storm by myself or stay with my parents, who don't live far away. I already have cabin fever, and I'm not sure how much longer I can take being in my apartment alone when we still got about forty hours before the storm begins.

My folks are 87 in (very) low country sc, my mom had room reserved inland starting fri and f'ing cancelled it because "I've been watching reports closely and we don't need to be there until Sunday and I don't want to pay extra." I am pretty mad.

sorry, hunt3r -- hopefully your parents are inland enough that they won't get the worst of it

neanderthal and alfred, suppressing all my paternalistic urges to scold you for staying and just wishing the best for your safety and the same for your family

My mother was due to fly to Miami this afternoon on her way to Chile. That's obv not happening any more.

To all ilxors in storm's path : thinking of you, and wishing you well and safe on the other side.

Well, it's harder to leave if you have dependents. I'm not in a flood/evacuation zone either.

thanks everybody for your thoughts. we heard from my cousins in st. john. one text - "we are okay. st. john is devastated"

to all ilxors in storm's path : thinking of you, and wishing you well and safe on the other side.

same. <3 to you all

Indeed.

barbuda, jeez

The aim is to get everyone off the island in the next few hours. It's a race against time before Jose comes through pic.twitter.com/79QFa7IK2h

— Laura Bicker (@BBCLBicker) September 8, 2017

times ran a piece about how much more powerful these storms are than a nuclear bomb; that kind of footage gives the abstract terrifying clarity

There's very few instances when I want a smartphone. This is one of them. It'd be nice to check on updates during the storm without power.

cell coverage may not be too reliable

at least there was no tsunami after the Mexican quake, right?

So the current track looks like it goes right up the middle of the state. Has Florida ever had a hurricane that did that? Trying to get some historical context here.

I should be fine overall, the winds will be bad but survivable and we have supplies. Most in Orlando are staying. ultimately I suppressed the urge to bolt because I woulda had anxiety attacks leaving my folks back here and my dad was stuck here for work. if they were still out of state I probably woulda headed out yesterday.

the bad advice bugging me is "don't go now - the roads are too jammed, you'll never make it". I know tons of people that got out of FL yesterday. the traffic is bad, but it is not THAT bad. definitely getting to the point where you need to make up your mind immediately but I hate when people circulate bad info.

brownie - I think Hurricane Donna in 1960? it's definitely not a usual track.

lucky me, my fridge was empty #bachelorlivin

So it looks like my dad will be hosting a few friends whose houses are not as stable as his (single pour concrete home with a tornado/storm safe room which is actually more like a safe closet). He just had a knee replacement about 6 weeks ago so I'm glad he's going to have people around to help out should anything happen. That said, it sounds like they've prepared as much as possible.

He's on the Atlantic coast of FL about 1/2 way (maybe a little more) dowmn.

I should be fine overall, the winds will be bad but survivable and we have supplies. Most in Orlando are staying. ultimately I suppressed the urge to bolt because I woulda had anxiety attacks leaving my folks back here and my dad was stuck here for work. if they were still out of state I probably woulda headed out yesterday.

the bad advice bugging me is "don't go now - the roads are too jammed, you'll never make it". I know tons of people that got out of FL yesterday. the traffic is bad, but it is not THAT bad. definitely getting to the point where you need to make up your mind immediately but I hate when people circulate bad info.

brownie - I think Hurricane Donna in 1960? it's definitely not a usual track.

― Neanderthal, Friday, September 8, 2017 12:38 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

are the roads bad past midnight too?

xpost thinking good thoughts for yr dad (and you) <3

tbh i stopped checking, but I don't think the traffic took a break in the wee hours.

when I briefly thought of going to Tennessee yesterday it was a two hour delay.

I think the traffic is worse for people evacuating from South Florida because they have a lot further to go. JetBlue *had* $99 flights, kicking myself for not finding that earlier and going to NYC for an unexpected vacay.

xpost ENBB best wishes for your fam!

x-posts - Thanks VG. <3

Thanks and likewise, Neanderthal. Stay safe.

A friend from Miami just recommended this article -- it lists both starting points for charitable giving in Miami but also a slew of options for where Irma's already caused problems in the Caribbean.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article171986092.html

- I think Hurricane Donna in 1960? it's definitely not a usual track.

yep

By the way, to keep my sanity I've been blogging some updates and will likely keep doing so until time runs out.

friends in Gainesville who were booked on American just had their flight cancelled

that's why I was afraid to book a last minute flight yesterday :(.

is it going to get rescheduled? hate the thought of thinking you're getting out only to have that happen.

our airport is stopping flights at 5 pm tomorrow apparently.

he was gonna try to reschedule for Tuesday "if there still is a Gainesville airport"

latest Euro model even further west. GFS starting to fall in line. how far west? who knows.

I'm hoping the intensity prediction doesn't shift to more powerful. not easy to predict that.

Erica, Alfred, Neanderthal, and all others weathering this or who have loved ones there: please be safe. Sending good thoughts <3

feel like I need to post what I'm drinking throughout the night.

thinking this is a good St Bernardus ABT 12 occasion

Stay Safe Florida Folks!

Florida can hanld eit they are hurricane experts

These photos from space of Barbuda are sobering but it appears they've evacuated the entire island now

Catastrophic damage on #Barbuda can be seen from space. Entire island stripped of tropical foliage and left brown. #Irma https://t.co/IZ5EKvvuoA

— Brenden Moses (@Cyclonebiskit) September 8, 2017

BREAKING: AP Exclusive: Miami detaining homeless against their will to shelter from the storm.

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 8, 2017

good

So! The trend's looking slightly better for southeast Florida: Irma keeps inching west. Now the keys, Key West specifically, are in a bowl of shit. The west coast up through Tampa-St. Pete looks like it's gonna get it.

Xposts is Gainesville gonna be in trouble? I thought they'd have only a marginal effect. My best friend lives there

Gainesville is about as inland as you can get in Florida, but they're likely to get torrential rain and 70+ mph winds.

otoh who fucking knows. We will late Sunday.

yeah this thing ain't done shifting I don't think. I'm preparing for 100+ mph wind gusts, if we don't get that, that's a win IMO.

4 pack of St Bernardus acquired