hurricane coming...

*shrug*

this cone is gonna stay really wide until at least tomorrow or Friday

*idly contemplates 'ilx posts taken out of context' thread*

jesus, this thread

None of the 1,600 Barbuda residents have been heard from in 12 hours, as Irma hit directly. PM about to heli to assess situation

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM of Antigua and Barbuda is live on national broadcaster. He just arrived in Barbuda by heli. "It is totally destroyed. 90% at least"

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM just keeps repeating 'totally demolished" over and over. "This is a national disaster". Line is breaking up. So distressing

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Hosts are asking about fatalities. PM sounds like he's saying 'over 1,000'. The entire population of Barbuda is only 1,600

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Again, the PM gave a number of 1,000 in response to a Q on fatalities. But line was really sketchy, PM emotional. Very hard to tell

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

It's really bizarre.. I've been trying to get in touch with some friends on St Martin. And 80,000 Dutch/French island. It's been about 6 or 7 hours since anyone had contact with the island at all. Everything's down. No correspondents getting through, no footage, phone's dead. There's nothing. Ghost island.

And 80,000 island

watched some webcams on USVI st john's, was very ominous to have them go dark

jfc

Antigua statement was much more optimistic:

https://antiguachronicle.net/statement-by-prime-minister-gaston-browne-on-the-passage-of-hurricane-irma/

Shocking: Power utility company in Puerto Rico estimates Island will be without electricity for "4 to 6 months." https://t.co/OX7RrTWugT

— Claude Brodesser (@ClaudeBrodesser) September 6, 2017

Big, misleading difference between "will be without power" and "could be without power." Hoping for the best here.

so those barbuda tweets were just nonsense or ...

that pm statement appears to predate him flying to the island on a helicopter to survey the destruction. but communications are shit right now...

we got two more...

http://abc13.com/weather/hurricanes-jose-katia-form-within-minutes/2384072/

deep dive on european model vs the others

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

Confession: I had never heard of Barbuda.

me neither

I thought meteorologists were mispronouncing Barbados.

I've never heard it without "Antigua and" in front

i figured Mike Love made it up for "Kokomo"

that is crazy about PR yikes

I'm confused, has it actually hit Puerto Rico yet? No, right?

more or less atop it -- slightly north -- right now

So it's the rain and sustained 50-70 mph winds? It could have been a lot worse, but I guess we'll see how bad it still is.

def could have been worse but their power issue goes beyond how hard the storm is and more to do with manpower. I think my company is shitting itself now given one of our major offices is there.

and one of the other ones was ...just outside Houston, so second interruption in two weeks

so basically NHC just said there were several models that reflected an eastern shift but this time until they're sure they're not outliers, they're not adjusting the track much. smart move I think. way too many dummies read too much into the 11 am easterly shift.

My local weather boys have been as circumspect as they've been since Sunday.

someone must have fed mine tranquilizers because this is the most restrained they've been since...ever.

they must have taken a beating for the way they were last year.

i'm probably going to bed now cos my brain is tired of thinking of this shit

Taken a beating for being alarmist?

yeah, people were pretty furious at the local networks last year for how OTT they got, I can't imagine I was the only one who wrote them about it.

course, the moment this track gets consensus, they might all start screaming "BRING OUT YOUR DEAD"

sleep well!

These are the first images from Barbuda after Hurricane #Irma's direct hit earlier today -- the strongest landfall in Atlantic history. pic.twitter.com/LTM2ql7SFf

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 7, 2017

further FL evacs

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-sb-hurricane-irma-broward-wednesday-20170906-story.html

smart move. precisely why I'm staying put at the moment - a) forecast looks like something O-town can ride out, b) don't want to get on the road and clog it up for people that are told they *have* to get out.

one of my friends just went to DC and I'm mega jealous. airfare always cheap there, shoulda thought of that.

I'm getting so little work done this week.

also those pics of Barbuda are NUTS. whole island is just fucked.

hoping we get an east jog and South Florida can be spared the worst.

If the forecast cone keeps inching east, we might.

a lot of the models still showing that, NHC trying to be wise and not jump the gun so people can at least be safe.

I had a ticket to Orphaned Land in TAmpa tonight. no way in Hell I am going. and hasn't been cancelled. lol...

I'm getting so little work done this week.

― Neanderthal, Thursday, September 7, 2017 1:02 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I've been a terrible employee this week. I'm spending the majority of my working day coordinating with friends and family, making sure they have a plan and supplies. Apparently I'm terrible at focusing at work at times of stress. I need to update my resume to reflect my newfound skill.

I know I said upthread that I'm leaving, but everyone I know here in Tampa are hunkering down. I would feel shitty hogging gas for those who need to get out so I'm staying put and hoping the fucker dies out in the ocean somewhere.

two of my cousins live on st. john, nobody's heard from them since yesterday morning

oh no

Jose is following right in Irma's path, it's crazy

is that fairly uncommon to have two hurricanes, one after the other, following the same track like that?

xxpost aw man :( I'm sorry to hear that, hopefully it's more a "comms are down" type thing than something mroe worrisome.

musicfanatic hoping you stay safe and dry as well.

two of my cousins live on st. john, nobody's heard from them since yesterday morning

― marcos

hugs, marcos

yea im hoping it's just power/network problems :(

thanks alfred