hurricane coming...

might be worth topping off if you can after driving

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCue6tXoAA7JSa.jpg:small

It's Just Capitalism!®

some asshole wrote the same article in 2004 when we were getting hit with one of three hurricanes.

cos y'know, a tank of gas basically depleting a family of 4's bank account is worth it after all!

hell of an eastward shift in last forecast

Fake news?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties

ffs wapo

I suspect something has to give soon with the computer models and the variance has to start decreasing. that could mean going back to a more westerly track again, or pushing further east.

almost all of the GFS models have it missing FL now, but Euro still thinks FL is going to get gobsmacked.

I suspect we're still going to be frustratingly unclear even at bedtime tonight.

I'm going to leave Tampa tomorrow afternoon, but I'm hoping Irma continues out into the Atlantic. I have no clue how clogged I-75 is or will be tomorrow. I have a full tank, but there's that fear that there won't be any gas from Tampa up through northern Florida.

If you go to a shelter for #Irma and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi

— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) September 6, 2017

tweets vmic *sigh*

I-75 supposedly is less congested now but will likely pick up again soon.

yeah the gas fear is why I filled up

The new track encourages me.

I'm supposed to be in Durham next week. just give them the all clear and I'll extend my AirBNB by two days and take my work laptop with me.

Interesting specifics on the spaghetti models.

that dude is right, a lot of the 'models' on those plots are garbage and should really just focus on the NHC track, global forecasts and the ensembles.

not surprised Nate Silver doesn't get meteorology

state of emergency declared in south carolina

not sure i get the objections to the spaghetti models -- i guess they could be weighted differently

since they all appear on the map as a bunch of lines, you tend to give each one equal weight when really a lot of them are either outdated, not meant to considered in isolation, or useless in some other way.

yeah seems analogous to combining polls, not sure why properly weighting each one based on the model's past performance, how long ago the forecast was made, etc wouldnt be a reasonable strategy

believe me, not good

Takeoff! An absolutely amazing job here by @Delta forecasters, dispatchers, flight and ground crews. Full flight back up to JFK.#Irma pic.twitter.com/sSulqA8g7t

— Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) September 6, 2017

guy is tracking planes that were forced to turn around, etc., and was very excited by this delta flight that snuck into san juan and back out in under an hour

mother of christ

yeah seems analogous to combining polls, not sure why properly weighting each one based on the model's past performance, how long ago the forecast was made, etc wouldnt be a reasonable strategy

it is reasonable, that is how you get the 3 and 5 day tracks the NHC provides for the storms. a layperson can't really do it though. people still want to see those maps with the spaghetti plots because in the face of a storm like that you want more information, more certainty, reassurance. but it leads people to ignore meteorologists and rely on their own predictions which, for the most part, are corrupted by all kinds of (understandable) biases. like wishing the storm would not land on top of them. part of meteorology or any scientific practice is having a process that minimizes those biases to give you a shot of actually knowing what is happening.

i'd probably rather wait out the hurricane than fly on that plane tbqf

xxxxpost I think dude was trying to prevent people from trying to be amateur meteorologists, which is fair. even when I read those things I like to see what the professionals have to say about it.

the hysteria in Central Florida is insane right now. Harvey definitely spooked everybody, as has the size of this storm. Rationality is kind of going by the wayside. Our local newscasters, who are usually sensationalist as hell, have been positively restrained, but it has made little difference.

also lots of BAD info circulating

and Central Florida, among all locations in the United States, is where I'd want to be in a hurricane -- specifically Disney World. Several friends over the years have ridden out Hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Frances, and Mathew and were immensely impressed with Disney's professionalism: constant alerts on in-room telephones, Disney movies running continuously, no power outages, etc

exactly.

heart palps have started for me due to the stress of it all (not unusual cos I have anxiety). on the plus side it's inspired me to work out more lol

You know Branson is even safer

https://twitter.com/search?q=euro%20model&src=tyah

Er, meant to say

Update: Latest (12Z) Euro model continuing to show #Irma making a direct hit landfall in South Florida. pic.twitter.com/CKZBpHb2ym

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 6, 2017

*shrug*

this cone is gonna stay really wide until at least tomorrow or Friday

*idly contemplates 'ilx posts taken out of context' thread*

jesus, this thread

None of the 1,600 Barbuda residents have been heard from in 12 hours, as Irma hit directly. PM about to heli to assess situation

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM of Antigua and Barbuda is live on national broadcaster. He just arrived in Barbuda by heli. "It is totally destroyed. 90% at least"

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM just keeps repeating 'totally demolished" over and over. "This is a national disaster". Line is breaking up. So distressing

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Hosts are asking about fatalities. PM sounds like he's saying 'over 1,000'. The entire population of Barbuda is only 1,600

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Again, the PM gave a number of 1,000 in response to a Q on fatalities. But line was really sketchy, PM emotional. Very hard to tell

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

It's really bizarre.. I've been trying to get in touch with some friends on St Martin. And 80,000 Dutch/French island. It's been about 6 or 7 hours since anyone had contact with the island at all. Everything's down. No correspondents getting through, no footage, phone's dead. There's nothing. Ghost island.

And 80,000 island

watched some webcams on USVI st john's, was very ominous to have them go dark

jfc

Antigua statement was much more optimistic:

https://antiguachronicle.net/statement-by-prime-minister-gaston-browne-on-the-passage-of-hurricane-irma/

Shocking: Power utility company in Puerto Rico estimates Island will be without electricity for "4 to 6 months." https://t.co/OX7RrTWugT

— Claude Brodesser (@ClaudeBrodesser) September 6, 2017

Big, misleading difference between "will be without power" and "could be without power." Hoping for the best here.

so those barbuda tweets were just nonsense or ...

that pm statement appears to predate him flying to the island on a helicopter to survey the destruction. but communications are shit right now...

we got two more...

http://abc13.com/weather/hurricanes-jose-katia-form-within-minutes/2384072/

deep dive on european model vs the others

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

Confession: I had never heard of Barbuda.

me neither