hurricane coming...

#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/P8ebbQJR4k

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 5, 2017

lord

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI9_UA2XoAIBT5O.jpg

I hope the forecast keeps it farther west before its eventual turn north.

With this hurricane and Harvey, it's amazing how early out the predictions and models anticipated this.

With Harvey, a few days in advance there was "Houston will be getting rain - most are saying 15-20" and then the European model lol is predicting 60"..."

Cane forecasting has made amazing developments even since 04.

Keys evac orders

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/05/keys-emergency-manager-you-must-evacuate-you-cannot-afford-to-stay/

PR really doesnt need this now if not ever. Theyre a couple billion in the hole, Congress sucks and is impotent and trying to treat them like Greece, now theyre going to potentially need hundreds of millions in hurricane relief =|

yeah they just closed our PR office. tensions were high among the population when I last visited and they really need a break. I heard they also don't have great relief infrastructure as a lot of relief employees went to the continental states for better opportunities.

5 o'clock update fairly "wait and see" as usual. the fact that my local networks aren't outright flipping out leads me to believe that like the NHC just said, they really don't have a lot of confidence in days 4 and 5 of the forecast due to how divergent all the models are on those days.

i'm gonna make sure I'm gassed up, but can't exactly plan a "where" to go until the other east coast states are out of the woods, which they currently aren't.

meanwhile, TS Jose forms in the Atlantic and isn't currently forecasted to be a threat to land, but way too early to be confident about that. And Trop Disturbance 13 forms in the Gulf but fortunately looks like it's going to die as a weak depression in Mexico (cos Texas really cannot afford having anything come through).

This is a *fun* time of year let me tell you.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-record

Irma poses the most serious hurricane threat to northern Cuba and Florida since at least Hurricane Andrew (1992). Since Sunday night, computer models have agreed that Irma will continue west-northwest before making a fairly sharp right-hand turn in the vicinity of the Florida Straits over the weekend. The level of agreement among models and over time has been quite high for a forecast in the 5-day range. Given this agreement and Irma’s Category 5 strength, residents of Florida must take this hurricane with the utmost seriousness.

I like Dr. Masters, he did a good job during Matthew too

i'm gonna go make a gas run, then go get drunk in a few hours

today i learned about the hebert box(es)

not named after bobby hebert, sadly

Got gas. It was getting testy at the Wawa tho

today i learned that there are wawas in florida

We only got em in like 2012

U drunk yet or what?

10 pm! Tho i do gotta work tomorrow. Boss gave us free reign to cut out if we need to this week tho.

Considering your workplace, that's alright!

Students free as of 11 p.m. tonight through Sunday. We employees gotta report tomorrow anyway.

I'm in Tampa. I'm probably leaving on Thursday if this is still coming my way. I'm thinking of a road trip to Tennessee atm. I don't reside in a flood zone, but fuck if I'm hunkering down in 150+ mph winds.

keep safe, flalxors

For damn sure.

The 5 pm EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC highlighted a number of Florida locations with chances of seeing hurricane-force winds by Sunday evening, with the highest odds in the Florida Keys and South Florida:

24%: Key West
23%: Marathon
14%: Miami
11%: Naples
8%: West Palm Beach
8%: Ft. Myers
3%: Tampa

I'm in Lecanto. I'm living in an RV in a park, and I'll evacuate if required to, because we really don't have anywhere else to go. (Also, I'm working for a companion agency now despite all of my efforts to avoid going back into health care, and I might be required to keep working through all of this.)

my grandparents are coming up from Florida due to the forced evacuation. yikes!

latest spaghetti models had several more pushing East of FL and missing, or going out to sea and potentially hitting other east coast states. def don't want other states to have to deal w/ it, but somewhat encouraging to see the ones having it just go out to sea (although *far* from a sure bet).

w/ the odds above, it's kinda nuts that Orlando has sold out of water in so many places cos *so far*, we aren't even sure what we're supposed to get if anything. I like preparedness, but lots of people buying way beyond the recommended supplies and leaving lots of others empty-handed (though true, we're supposed to prepare at the BEGINNING of the season).

xpost are they leaving now? hope they have safe travels

no idea. im pretty sure they are leaving asap.

you live in Florida, Neanderthal? Florida is an interesting place but i love it.

good luck weathering the storm!

I'm in Miami, so I'll let him know how we roll. I got lots of black beans, gin, Vienna sausages, and Holger Czukay albums.

Dolphins game already being moved

stay safe u guys <3

xxpost yeah I've been in Cent FL p much my entire life. the hospital I was born at is like less than 8 miles from me.

I will say I am growing really tired of this annual charade, though admittedly it wasn't this bad growing up as the storms were rather weak and usually Cat 1s and you maybe only had to worry about one to two close calls a year.

2004 kinda rewired our brains, my project lead lost her home that year so she's a bit antsy.

thanks VG.

stay safe Alfred! hopefully you'll just get a hooky day to drink away and nothing worse.

Boozed up

my grandparents are coming up from Florida due to the forced evacuation. yikes!

^^ Work on this screenplay while waiting out the storm.

Drinking not helping. Goin to sleep

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204937_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

nerveracking. though the Euro and G4S models are very much divergent still, with G4S starting to show more of an eastern shift, some of them saying it will miss FL and go into the Atlantic. Euro still more westerly.

Home Depot employee in Cent Florida attacked last night - hurricanes make so many people here show their asses.

I take minor ridiculous comfort in the slight downgrade in intensity.

We're already off work. Four days of waiting! I got gas no problem yesterday morning, but with four days until the storm this means I still have to some driving...when gas stations are out of petrol.

might be worth topping off if you can after driving

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCue6tXoAA7JSa.jpg:small

It's Just Capitalism!®

some asshole wrote the same article in 2004 when we were getting hit with one of three hurricanes.

cos y'know, a tank of gas basically depleting a family of 4's bank account is worth it after all!

hell of an eastward shift in last forecast

Fake news?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties

ffs wapo

I suspect something has to give soon with the computer models and the variance has to start decreasing. that could mean going back to a more westerly track again, or pushing further east.

almost all of the GFS models have it missing FL now, but Euro still thinks FL is going to get gobsmacked.

I suspect we're still going to be frustratingly unclear even at bedtime tonight.

I'm going to leave Tampa tomorrow afternoon, but I'm hoping Irma continues out into the Atlantic. I have no clue how clogged I-75 is or will be tomorrow. I have a full tank, but there's that fear that there won't be any gas from Tampa up through northern Florida.

If you go to a shelter for #Irma and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi

— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) September 6, 2017

tweets vmic *sigh*