Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

from the grauniad

The small Louisiana town of Cameron could be the first in the US to be fully submerged by rising sea levels – and yet locals, 90% of whom voted for Trump, still aren’t convinced about climate change

some highlights:

For 10 years, Smith was a truck driver, which gave her a particular vantage point from which to observe the coast. “I think the coast is disappearing, I really do. Because I traveled this road so much, driving for the oil fields. By the way it looks, it looks like the water is getting closer and closer.”

But Smith stops short of offering an explanation. “I really don’t know what is causing it, I don’t know what you’d call it – erosion? I guess it’s probably caused by climate change, but I don’t really believe in the concept.

“If you go by what the real scientists say, there’s no proof. In the last 10 years the average temperature of the world hasn’t even risen a half degree. And if you listen to everyone talking it, it’s up five or 10 degrees. And it’s not true! It’s a political thing. How much money has Al Gore made off global warming?,” he laughs, shaking his head with a cackle. “It ain’t happened yet!”

“Do I think it is climate change? That’s hard,” she says, smiling. Theriot seems caught between her job as a science educator and her life as a longtime Cameron resident, tasked with teaching about the environment in a fiercely red town.

“From a scientific perspective ... data is manipulated all the time. So whoever is interpreting the data, as much as you try to not have a bias, you could still have a bias. Of course, I am going to be more proactive about coastal restoration and protections because it is directly affecting me, so for me, looking at the data, I am very very worried.” She relents: “But I think the data is incomplete. And I am still not sure about climate change. I am still researching it. I feel like I don’t have enough good sources to say yes or no on if climate change is a real thing.”

“If you go by what the real scientists say, there’s no proof. In the last 10 years the average temperature of the world hasn’t even risen a half degree. And if you listen to everyone talking it, it’s up five or 10 degrees.

hoo boy. a big part of the problem is that many people have failed to achieve even basic science literacy (or another way to put it, we have failed to provide our people with basic science literacy), and then those people "debate" each other and get incredibly confused, mixed in with rush limbaugh people screaming deliberately misleading things at them on the radio

we have failed to provide our people with basic science literacy

Included in "people" are science teachers, apparently. D:

Blind. Deaf. Dumb.

The Trump administration just disbanded a federal advisory committee on climate change

The committee was established to help translate findings from the National Climate Assessment into concrete guidance for both public and private-sector officials.

Seattle Mayor Ed Murray (D) said in an interview Saturday that the move to dissolve the committee represents “an example of the president not leading, and the president stepping away from reality.” An official from Seattle Public Utilities has been serving on the panel; with its disbanding, Murray said it would now be “more difficult” for cities to participate in the climate assessment. On climate change, Trump “has left us all individually to figure it out.”

the free market will pay for it. privatize the profits; socialize the losses :)

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a57276/harvey-longterm-effects/

As it happens, Harvey has killed an estimated 44 Texans and forced some 32,000 into shelters since it struck, a week ago. That is a catastrophe for every one of those individuals, of course. Still, those figures look small alongside the havoc wreaked by flooding across southern Asia during the very same period. In the past few days, more than 1,200 people have been killed, and the lives of some 40 million others turned upside down, by torrential rain in northern India, southern Nepal, northern Bangladesh and southern Pakistan.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/01/disaster-texas-america-britain-yemen

I just realized that anything happening in Bangladesh is automatically going to affect more people than the same thing happening anywhere else.

Does anyone have a recommendation for reading up on the various geo-engineering options?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Venus

step one of terraforming venus seems u&k

Reducing Venus's surface temperature of 462 °C (864 °F).

ok that's nice but I'm actually kind of surprised that there isn't already a book or at least a 1500-word article on its way to becoming a book, considering that we've passed the point of no return on carbon emissions

there are a bunch, but i haven't read any of them so i can't offer any sort of advice

i keep thinking about the various ways to eliminate all mosquitos from the earth, and how there are probably very awful and largely unpredictable side effects of doing that, and how those side effects are probably worth it from a cold equation POV :(

Does anyone have a recommendation for reading up on the various geo-engineering options?

― El Tomboto, Sunday, 3 September 2017 15:54 (yesterday)

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ten-Technologies-Save-Planet-Author/dp/B00XV4C43I/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1504481388&sr=8-4&keywords=chris+goodall

Sorry for British link, and it's 7 years old now, but I read this, and it was good enough for my level.

I just realized that anything happening in Bangladesh is automatically going to affect more people than the same thing happening anywhere else.

Search around on "salinity intrusion" and you'll find a depressing amount of analysis on what could happen when rising sea water floods the rice production areas of Bangladesh.
https://phys.org/news/2017-01-food-threatened-sea-level.html

i keep thinking about the various ways to eliminate all mosquitos from the earth, and how there are probably very awful and largely unpredictable side effects of doing that, and how those side effects are probably worth it from a cold equation POV :(

probably not worth it: you'd massively disrupt or destroy a number of ecosystems, including migratory birds, fish and predatory insects

right i i'm not basing this on anything solid and you're probably right but if it stops malaria from killing everyone in north america..

tbh i feel like we're long overdue a pandemic, whether it's malaria or zika or something else currently percolating quietly and waiting for its time in the spotlight

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html

xp: For those interested in geoengineering, here's my collection of articles, mostly academic.

Thank you!

nice

Sanpaku is hall of fame

i wondered when he was going to deliver the knowledge

any of those articles good for a non-specialist?

All, really. The journal literature on climate change isn't heavy on jargon or formulae (compared to other fields), and technical information on atmospheric modeling seems relegated to supplemental information.

That's some irony -- anyone can read them, just half the population wouldn't believe it much less bother to read them.

Thanks so much for posting this.

feels weird to call a massively depressing piece 'good' as such, but this is def worth a read

“When I was younger,” Paffard tells us, “I would walk through the City of London and look at people living their everyday lives and think, ‘We’re all just continuing as though everything is normal, as though the world isn’t about to end.’ And that used to freak me out and make me angry. But now it just makes me sad . . . it’s the moments where you let yourself think about it when you get overwhelmed by it.”

https://thebaffler.com/salvos/tropical-depressions-kriss-ohagan

http://anthropoceneepoch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/HABITUS-9-medium-1024x682-1000x666.jpg

scott pruitt, EPA director

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/scott-pruitt-climate-change-insensitive-floridians

Did I say already that we ought to be able to bait Trump into doing something about climate change? Like, he's too scared of fixing it so he's hiding his head in the sand and ignoring it.

T and most of the current R party are a lost cause. The goal is to support international efforts, and domestic green energy til 2021, really. I hope that remaining Paris signatories will evolve to a treaty with trade sanction teeth, to punish back-sliders and free-riders. Let America become a pariah nation for a while, and the stock markets plummet every time R's are elected, until we get with the program.

It's not like any politico has really realized the gravity of the problem yet. Gore's still talking about coastal real estate, when the trajectory is towards a world with a human carrying capacity of 2-3 billion, or less.

By the way, for those who enjoyed perusing those geoengineering articles, you're welcome to look at the broader collection on climate change issues or the whole neomalthusian morass. I haven't been fun at parties for a while.

Thanks sanpaku, I always appreciate your commentary and contributions.

I am going to put these all in iBooks and skim them sometime when I am drunk on an airplane and there's no good movies I haven't seen already.

Next to we hear about someone trying to open the exit door midflight we'll know it was you

Nah, got a kid now.

Sanpaku, many thanks for the pile of articles.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/09/10/police_urge_floridians_not_to_fire_their_guns_at_hurricane_irma.html

according to a FOAF on FB people do that all the time, part of the appeal is that the wind noise masks the sound of gunfire

this is predictably nuts

https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/14/16290934/india-air-conditioner-cooler-design-climate-change-cept-symphony

By the end of the century, almost half the people on Earth will face deadly heat and humidity for more than 20 days a year, according to a study by Camilo Mora, a researcher at the University of Hawaii. And that’s the best-case scenario, with drastic reductions in carbon emissions. If emissions continue on their current trajectory, three-quarters of humanity will face deadly heat. Regions in the Persian Gulf, Bangladesh, and northeast India may become so hot and humid that, in the words of another recent study, they pass the “upper limit on human survivability,” deadly to anyone who ventures outside for more than a few hours. “Our choices now are between bad and terrible,” Mora said.

General, a joint venture between Japan’s Fujitsu and the Emirati company ETA, is selling a “hyper tropical” line meant for temperatures up to 125 degrees, which it unveiled with a Bollywood performance.

ACs India alone is expected to install by 2030 will be the equivalent of adding several new midsize countries to the global grid. With air conditioners already accounting for up to 60 percent of the summertime electricity use in cities like New Delhi, simply meeting the demand — and meeting it without burning huge amounts of fossil fuels — will be a challenge.

http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/06/0602_air-conditioners-1000x664.jpg

The Chinese approach would make any architect ill:

https://www.chinasmack.com/wp-content/uploads/chinasmack/2011/08/fuzhou-china-air-conditioner-wall-03.jpg

Of course room-sized air conditioners are of neccessity less energy efficient than building-sized ones, and making each resident responsible for their own heating/cooling eliminates incentives for efficient building design and insulation in construction.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/a-pacific-flip-triggers-the-end-of-the-recent-slowdown

counterpoint

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/vb7mqa/phoenix-will-be-almost-unlivable-by-2050-thanks-to-climate-change

OK, we don't get hurricanes, but it's the end of September, it's fall, leaves are changing and dropping off, and ... it's 95 fucking degrees. Average Sept. temp is 72.

fake news. you're just jealous of koch success

http://billmoyers.com/story/a-must-read-jane-mayers-dark-money-uncovers-the-hidden-history-of-billionaires/

https://hpluspedia.org/images/9/94/Hpexrisk.png

I don't know where else to put this, but i feel like a Trump deal that has the potential to cripple solar energy development and cost us 88 THOUSAND jobs ought to be bigger news

https://www.abqjournal.com/1070045/trade-dispute-could-turn-solar-boom-into-a-bust-excerpt-hundreds-of-local-jobs-and-tens-of-thousands-nationally-are-at-stake.html

our president is a supervillain straight out of a comic book, lex luthor with hair plugs