Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

More proper for this thread: Finns Party kicked out of Finnish governing coalition, and apparently, according to polls they've lost half their support since last election. From 17% to 9%.

Yeah I'm not entirely sure I get that. The two Finns I talk to had differing views on how much of a swing that was and what it meant.

I would love to hear expert opinions about the swing, but personally I note that populist movements fall apart whenever they have to take responsibility. The lesson for me is to never compromise in the fight against populism, since even if we lose they will then fall apart themselves, while in Denmark and elsewhere, compromising has meant giving them power without responsibility.

We've not had any luck with bankers probably because it's all murky as fuck and they could justifiably (legally) argue that the system was rotten and they acted in good faith etc etc etc

Everyone cites Iceland as an example of how to do it I'm not convinced Iceland is a useful comparator for any other country in the world tbh

I note that populist movements fall apart whenever they have to take responsibility.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/12/italys-populist-five-star-movement-humiliated-municipal-elections/

Great news! Some good examples this week, then.

Yeah, Iceland seems like a special case that has given everyone unrealistic ideas. I mean, fuck the guys in the Danish court case, the manager got payed a 10 million kr bonus right before they went under and their costumers lost everything, but it wasn't illegal at the time, and... I'm not sure it's constructive. x-post.

Oh, and the story in Finland seems to be that the membership of the party did a sort of coup when the old leader stepped down, and chose a much more radical candidate than expected. And the other parties just went 'nope'.

Lol, this just in: Old leader of True Finns now trying to make a new party with 20 other members, to stay in government coalition...

The lesson for me is to never compromise in the fight against populism

u unaccountably seem to have left 'right wing' out of that formulation

Ffs, the thread is named 'Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift'

"populist" has an almost exclusively right-wing connotation in europe, as i learned to my chagrin when i interviewed the then-head of the hackney empire and called his programming "populist" - he grew visibly and audibly incensed (which improved the interview tbh)

Seems otm

I mean left wing populism just dies on its feet as soon as anyone asks who's paying usually

I'm not so sure that's the case anymore.

Podemos, Syriza, *gulp* Corbyn...

Fair to note that was more a comment on the debate shutting down but yeah

tbh I don't even know where the Five Star Movement is, ideologically, but any political party started by a comedian has to be resisted at all costs.

aye, it could so easily lead to tyranny

I'd probably include Podemos and Syriza as unfortunate examples of my point about populist movements crumbling once they're unable to deliver as promised - though the circumstances are completely different, of course. Corbyn smart to make a fully costed popular manifesto that could hopefully begin being implemented as soon as he gets power in 2018.

Wait, sorry, I actually thought Podemos was in power. My bad.

as soon as he gets power in 2018

or sooner, the way things are going

Well, yeah, but I just wanted to use a cautious estimate ;)

first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then they ripoff your messaging in a half ass attempt to hold onto power pic.twitter.com/uITiNNJrI8

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) June 13, 2017

No one in the Democratic leadership–not Schumer, Pelosi or Perez–has congratulated Corbyn. Our Dems are tighter with Netanyahu than Corbyn.

— Chase Madar (@ChaseMadar) June 9, 2017

congratulations on not losing quite as badly as had been predicted

I know I have no right to police this thread, especially since it was started by Mordy, but wouldn't it make more sense as a sort of trans-national discussion on left-wing / right-wing politics, rather than turning it into the latest forum for US Dem-bashing?

Can anyone point me to some really good analysis of the Labour manifesto, especially it's funding mechanisms? It was 'fully costed', but... How? I'm asking, because I got reminded of a Soc Dem manifesto from 2010, which was also supposedly fully costed, but through a gimmicky funding mechanism, which mostly was based on workers all working 12 min more a day, giving a massive boost to productivity. 'Give us 12 min, we'll give you welfare', that sort of slogans. It turned out, of course, to not really work, and not really being legal either, so it all fell apart, and they had a rubbish election where really they should have won decisively. (They still won, just not as big as they looked to do)

What I mean is, a lot of good politics lately has been 'policy wonk' stuff, moving bills around, trying to make them disappear. The idea of Paul Ryan as a great politician, rather than a stupid fraud. And it would be a good take away from this election, that the simple answer would actually be best: The money is coming from higher taxes.

Or the latest forum for Corbyn-bashing by Mordy?

corbyn and mcdonnell have been quite explicit that the money would come from higher taxes on the top 5% of earners. the IFS says it would have to be more like the top 10% iirc but that's the gist. Labour would also introduce a "land value tax" which for the first time would tax land wealth.

& corporation tax bumped back up a bit

My suspicion is that the US election was kind of watershed moment where a lot of other people in other countries sat up and went "this can't be allowed to happen here". There was bound to be backlash against all this shit sooner or later and we're in the early stages of that now.

The fact that it was won by an absolute clown is possibly a blessing in that sense - standing with him has damaged serious politicians, though obviously existing dangerous clowns (eg Farage) haven't minded.

A high-level view is that, as Trump is riding the high point of various anti-progressive waves, his eventual ignominious departure will tie those attitudes to him - a Don Draper that you either hate or pretend you hate.

Like lots of high-level views it will be of no comfort for those getting it in the neck now and for some time to come.

if u believe that there are systemic reasons for the right-wing tide then trump may end up temporarily discrediting the notion but the underlying push isn't going to vanish just bc he's a buffoon.

But with the right-wingers being beaten left and right by everyone from Macron to Corbyn to, well, themselves in Finland, it's probably worth reconsidering what the 'systemic reasons' for the rise might be.

if u believe that there are systemic reasons for the right-wing tide

I don't, really, I believe political motion of this kind is largely driven by fads which are arbitrary and contingent and for which we invent plausible explanations after the fact

A lot of the "systemic reasons" that don't amount to straight up racism and bigotry can also work to the benefit of left-wing parties as well. That definitely happened in Britain last week.

I believe there are systemic reasons for the current instability/discontent but don't think they need lead to a right-wing resurgence: they can benefit the left just as easily. The only ppl they cannot benefit is those too associated with The Establishment in people's minds - which is why even a centrist like Macron made his campaign about change, going outside the established main parties, etc.

xpost

Matt DC otm

I wouldn't say systemic, but one of the factors is pushback from increasing progress along various axes - it's no coincidence that Trump comes after eight years of the first black president and the fear of the first female president.

caek posted this on the US politics thread but seems more relevant to this one imo

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-making-europe-liberal-again/

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_good_fight/2017/09/afd_party_enters_german_parliament_the_country_is_no_longer_immune_from.html

Never in Germany’s postwar history has a far-right party gained more than 6 percent in a national election. Today, the Islamophobic, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party pulverized that record, taking over 13 percent of the vote, winning a plurality in a significant number of districts, and establishing itself as the country’s third-biggest party.

The AfD won this remarkable victory even though a more radical wing of the party took over a few months ago. It won this remarkable victory even though one of its two new leaders used distinctively Nazi rhetoric when he expressed his hope that a competitor of Turkish roots would be “disposed of” in Anatolia. And it won this remarkable victory even though the other new leader said that members of the government are “just puppets of the victors of World War II,” implying that the current political system is illegitimate.

increasing appeal of fascism/nationalism as the air and the oceans coincidentally warm is a dumb fad, germany. don't fall for it!

A friend pointed out that this is not really a remarkable victory, it's about average (a little low in fact) for the far-right across Europe. Which isn't good, of course, and there's a frisson from it being Germany, but it's not the end of the world.

"It is, frankly, hard to imagine better headwinds for an anti-Muslim, anti-immigration political party than Germany this election. IMAGINE the media and political response in the UK if Theresa May had opened the borders! (To avoid ambiguity, I think Merkel was basically right to do this and May's response to the humanitarian crisis has been outrageous.) Is the AfD's 13% really a seismic shock? And since they've tacked hard to the right to get it - to the point where their leader just walked out because the party's too extreme for her now - can they do any better?"

After underwhelming results for the far right in various European countries when everyone was expecting the Trump/Brexit trend to continue, this does feel more like the tail end of a trend, but that might be dangerously misplaced optimism on my part.

i am ok w/ ppl being terrified about 1 in 8 german voters thinking the nazi thing was good actually and they should do that again. i mean the only hope we have is that ppl remember that kind of shit and are horrified by it. would hope to rely on germans of everyone taking the lead in that particular discipline.

Sitting in a country where the far right scored 12% as early as 2001, it's hard to feel it's that seismic. But it's bad that they over performed polls, for the reason Daniel points out.

Sitting in a country where the far right scored 12% as early as 2001, it's hard to feel it's that seismic

to point this out for literally the 45th billionth time since you started posting here, maybe you're not that worried about it because you're a white person in a land of white people and the threat isn't directly against you

Donald Trumpth billionth time

he has even taken over the number system, we're dooooooooomed, he is the gray goo we were warned about

karl malone otm x a billion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc