French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

that post makes me think more highly of Mélenchon tbh

'necessary reforms'

http://cepr.net/images/Book2_16029_image001.png

That said, "German economic success" is demonstrably responsible for the imbalance in the eurozone. This isn't controversial. It runs huge surpluses, which necessarily means huge deficits for others.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html

This is the fifth consecutive year that Germany’s surplus has been above 6pc of GDP. The EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure states that the Commission should launch infringement proceedings if this occurs for three years in a row, unless there is a clear reason not to.

Article was written in 2015. Last year's surplus surpassed any of the previous years.

I am happy that the French were wise enough not to follow this rat catcher. Unlike the Germans in 1933.

― Alex in Spree-Athen (alex in mainhattan), Wednesday, May 10, 2017 9:44 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Ya I think some further study of the phenomenon of Nazism and personality of Hitler may be in order hear

From the FN through PEGIDA to Golden Dawn, we've got actual fascists knocking down our doors, no need to play "what's the 2017 equivalent".

The Valls fall-out is sad/hilarious

About two thirds of the German trade surplus comes from the trade with extra EU countries. That does not create any imbalance within the EU. And the reason for this surplus is the weak euro. The reason for the weak euro are the low interest rates in the Euro zone. That falls into the responsability of the ECB and the national central banks. The German Bundesbank has always been against low interest rates but they could not convince the majority of the member states. And if you look at the Eurostat 2016 trade data you will notice that the Netherlands have the surplus in EU intra trade not Germany. And the UK has a huge trade deficit within the EU and with the extra EU. I have not heard any complaints from the UK concerning the German trade surplus yet. France btw has a positive balance with the extra EU countries, and is therefore not doing so bad overall.

...that the Netherlands have the highest surplus in EU intra trade not Germany...

I have not heard any complaints from the UK concerning the German trade surplus yet

File under: codes that have not universally been cracked, maybe

the more we see of macron the more it seems he will govern like david cameron

dmacron

minus the bringing up the Smiths all the time, I'm guessing, considering Mozza's stance.

Unsurprisingly Macron is a fan of the French chanson:

"Dans sa discothèque, le candidat "assume des goûts très classiques", de Charles Aznavour, à Johnny Hallyday en passant par Léo Ferré."

There is neither Brel nor Gainsbourg there so that is rather average and predictable.

Eyes on Austria -- mainstream right party just called for new elections, their lead candidate (the awful teenage foreign minister) has been flirting hard right for quite some time now and has finagled a deal whereby he picks his own government from whatever party he wants. There's a mutual admiration society between this dude and Orban.

massive wins for macron's party, raising fears that his nu-napoleonic rule will roll on untrammelled

unless my eyes are deceiving me, the socialists and the republicans aren't even cracking the top 4 in a huge number of constituencies

R.I.P. public service and workers rights

i think huge numbers of these LREM candidates are political novices drawn from corporate upper management :(

yeah, also lawyers, doctors, etc.

One party state.

yeah they seem to be pulling a Germany here, in a way

there's an unsavoury whiff of "let's hand off the messy issues of governing to our betters"

Did something happen with Melenchon, why did his party do so much worse than he did in the presidential election?

complete bollocks - they're likely to have a comfortable majority in Parliament. Big deal. This is pretty much always the case after a Presidential election. Didnt hear anyone complaining in 2012 when PS held the Presidency, the Parliament and the Senate (not the case for LREM and very unlikely given the electoral system for that chamber).

i am totally ignorant of how the senate works in france.. i tht they were appointed or something

elected by local/regional counsellors - so in practice, senators are old men with deep local connections.

just now reading that the massive abstention rate means that LREM have gotten fewer actual votes than PS in 2012 or the UMP in 2007

Yes, but since they also got a lower percentage of the votes, it would have been really weird otherwise...

Seriously, what is the long-term plan of Melenchon, I don't get this at all.

Visiting gf's family in France, what I came away with most is that this election was quite traumatic for a lot of people - a lotta families/friendships estranged, and not just in situations where someone voted Le Pen.

I hadn't thought this election had been on that Trump/brexit scale for France. I guess maybe this is the default for elections now?

yeah, lotsa people just cant accept anymore that voting in an election usually entails making compromises and settling on a common denominator (ie. lots of whining coming from the left). Also, this electoral period was unusually long for France, with each camp organising primaries for the first time. So a general ras-le-bol is understandable.

People have disagreed on whether it's better to vote for a common denominator centrist or a more clearly outright leftist for as long as I've been alive, the fact that there is no consensus on this is one of the founding characteristics of European politics imo (else we'd be in a two party system like the Americans).

What's different imo is the emotional investment placed on who your friends/family/neighbours are voting for, which I don't recall being nearly as intense before. Predictably enough centrists and leftists I spoke to both placed the blame for this on "whining", "bullying", "purity tests" from the other side.

well the fact that political opinions may trigger intense feelings towards friends/family/neighbour is nothing new, at least in France, where political color defines the individual to a large extent in the eye of others. What may be new in today's french climate is the fact that affiliations are shifting and that lifelong friends may now surprise you in their voting preferences (whereas before you knew very well who always voted what). Hence, intense feelings of betrayal amongst many friends/families

As to the whining I referred to in my post , I rather meant that the narcissism of small differences has now made a lot of people way more uncompromising than before. Socialist card members not voting for Macron against Le Pen due to some "ultraliberal" paranoia (whereas not so long ago the idea of having a centrist supporting progressive values in charge in 2017 would have been a pipe dream) . Melenchon's goons boycotting Macron's speech to Congress because of some perceived autocratic tendencies. I don't know, it just seems a lot of people these days won't play the democratic game if they're not winning.

Point taken re: shifting allegiances.

Macron's decision to give a speech to congress took even the Macron-supporting acquaintances I have by surprise! Certainly didn't feel like consternation over that was limited to the Left/Mélonchon.

Socialist card members not voting for Macron against Le Pen due to some "ultraliberal" paranoia (whereas not so long ago the idea of having a centrist supporting progressive values in charge in 2017 would have been a pipe dream) .

Yeah well I don't think having a president who wants to undo workers' rights some more was ever a pipe dream to anyone with leftist ideals, but what do I know.

see also: making state of emergency permanent by merging it with common law, and then pretending to want to get rid of state of emergency. Under Hollande these laws were used for preventing leftists and environment defenders from protesting, and there is no reason to think this won't happen again with Macron. A fucking pipe dream.

Macron says Africa's problems are "civilizational" and blames women with "7 or 8" kids. A repugnant speech.

pic.twitter.com/4BqwDb7fqE

— joe prince (@joeprince___) July 10, 2017

Can't wait to see how centrist hacks deal with this one.

either ignore or somehow try and justify it. should be funny

A french politician being racist towards Africa would be the least surprising thing ever, but there's a pretty blatant cut in the middle of that video, so I wager I'll hold off on my contempt until I get the whole thing.

Giving him a chance huh?

Here is the English translation of Macron's remarks. he tried to numb the clear racism of his comments with policy wonk jargon. pic.twitter.com/jZk5hpg9MC

— joe prince (@joeprince___) July 10, 2017

I'd hold off on shitting on Trump if I saw a video of him that was so blatantly pilfered with. Give it a minute, the whole speech should be out soon, then we can rip him to shreds.

Here's a fuller one, allegedly. (And he was responding to a reporter from the Ivory Coast?)

If this translation (h/t @jeffjmason) is right, Macron doesn't seem to be saying anything horribly controversial?https://t.co/VJl7p0Ts8v pic.twitter.com/SF71eBSOXr

— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) July 10, 2017

You are a considerate guy, Frederik xp

lol /r/neoliberal ?!?!

But of course!

See, already is pretty clear he isn't blaming the women of anything. So... Grain of salt. Lots of time to rip him to shreds.

LOL sure he isn't.