I Never MENA Hurt You; I Never MENA Make You Cry 2017 (Middle East, North Africa, and Other Geopolitical Hotspots)

SV: "While officials in Jerusalem interpreted this to mean that recognition of west Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will only come once east Jerusalem becomes the capital of a Palestinian state, The Jerusalem Post has learned that Moscow intends this recognition to go into effect immediately."

xp I wouldn't consider that "dropping chemicals... for years now" nor "getting away with it." it was a major event that almost led to direct US intervention that was only staved off bc they agreed to give all their chemical weapons to the Russians.

they agreed to give all their chemical weapons to the Russians.

Yes, that's worked out well, hasn't it?

I don't know how it has worked out. Have there been continual attacks before this week? It has been quiet enough on that front that Kerry called the agreement a success. Is it totally clear what happened this week? Not to me.

Heard a onetime Obama admin guy asserting that Assad gave up "most" of the chemical weapons in that deal, and thus it was still a success. He doubled down on that phrasing when asked a follow-up about how Assad was supposed to have given up all, and then proceeded to say that the Russians must be mad at Assad for having done this now.

Ahmadinejad has submitted his name for the presidential elections.

Banner day for Iran lunatics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/opinion/why-is-trump-fighting-isis-in-syria.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

This is a time for Trump to be Trump — utterly cynical and unpredictable. ISIS right now is the biggest threat to Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and pro-Shiite Iranian militias — because ISIS is a Sunni terrorist group that plays as dirty as Iran and Russia.

Trump should want to defeat ISIS in Iraq. But in Syria? Not for free, not now. In Syria, Trump should let ISIS be Assad’s, Iran’s, Hezbollah’s and Russia’s headache — the same way we encouraged the mujahedeen fighters to bleed Russia in Afghanistan.

That worked out grand last time, didn't it?

Oh, a Thomas L. Friedman column.

no surprise--Krauthammer is excited about one-off strike in Syria, others not so

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/middleeast/why-the-syrian-chemical-weapons-problem-is-so-hard-to-solve.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSyria&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection

didn't link to Krauthamer's column

So Erdogan had unlimited funds, controls the media, silenced opposition, intimidated voters, and still only manages a 51vs49% win in the referendum. Embarrassing.

tbf after almost a century ppl are probably pretty attached to democracy

Shame half of the ppl voted democracy in the bin then.

if u were wondering what the US gov thought about all this
https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836

BREAKING Presidential sources: US President Trump calls Turkish President Erdoğan to congratulate him on #Turkeyreferendum result.

Ugh, though not surprised.

same old, same old

Syria's military said Israel struck a military installation southwest of Damascus International Airport before dawn Thursday, setting off a series of explosions and raising tensions further between the two neighbors.

Apparently seeking to interrupt weapons transfers to the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, Israel has struck inside Syria with increasing frequency in recent weeks, making the war-torn country a proxy theater for Israel's wider war with Iran.

http://time.com/4758928/israel-syria-strikes-iran/

There was this recently as well-

American officials expressed indignation at the Turkish bombing, which killed as many as 20 Kurdish fighters in Syria and, according to the U.S. military, five Kurdish peshmerga troops in a coordinated attack across the border in northern Iraq. According to the Turkish government, both attacks targeted members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which both Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist group.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/26/pentagon-expands-rebuke-of-turkey-over-iraq-syria-strikes/

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas will drop its longstanding call for Israel's destruction as well as its association with the Muslim Brotherhood, in a policy document to be issued on Monday, Gulf Arab sources said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-hamas-document-idUSKBN17X1N8

(raises eyebrows)

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas will drop its longstanding call for Israel's destruction as well as its association with the Muslim Brotherhood, in a policy document to be issued on Monday, Gulf Arab sources said.

But the document, to be announced later on Monday, will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told Reuters.

obviously i'm missing some finer distinction here

But the document, to be announced later on Monday, will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told Reuters.

oh, the first point is more of an obstacle than the second. armed struggle is contingent and negotiable, while a right to exist is absolute.

'We don't think it should not exist, we just don't think it should not not exist...'

I wonder, also, if there's some nuance to the Arabic that we're not getting.

it sounds to me like they want to have their cake (the appearance of reasonableness and moderation) and eat it too (still get to pursue same policies without making any real conciliatory gestures)

It seems pretty unambiguous: "But, he said, "unlike Fatah, Hamas does not accept Israel's right to exist on the rest of the land. Hamas's constant position is not to cede any of our historical rights and not to recognize the (Israeli) occupation.""

I kinda thought they were getting weapons from Hezbollah/Syria/Iran, though, or am I completely messing things up?

Well, Hamas is Sunni, Hezbollah is Shia. Why the fuck didn't I fact-check that before I posted... Sorry.

Iran has funded Hamas recently, especially as they've become alienated from the Sunni world (esp in light of Muslim Brotherhood losing their position in Egypt - there seemed like a brief moment that Hamas was going to be able to renew their historical funding from Egypt), but it's unclear to me how extensive that funding is. You'd think it would be less successful than their funding of Hezbollah since it's easier to pass weapons through Syria than through the Sinai but idk exactly what those numbers are. Hezbollah wouldn't fund Hamas directly bc they're both client states.

Also there was a period recently when the Iran funding had dried up - after Hamas had criticized Assad and taken the side of the rebels - but I think that has since been mended.

U.S. to arm Kurds
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/us/politics/trump-kurds-syria-army.html

trump is good now

stopped clock etc

presumably he's just more malleable than bho & ppl have wanted this for a while

It is the first sensible thing he has done since in office (but yeah, stopped clock etc)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-accuses-syria-of-mass-executions-and-burning-bodies/2017/05/15/b7b66c86-3986-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html

I'm sure 45 also told the Russian ambassador to get Syria to stop doing that. I wonder what he'll say in his meeting with Erdogan today.

#Erdogan’s guards fight with #Kurdish protesters in front of Turkish Embassy in Washington DC pic.twitter.com/w3Q0BLzJUK

— Turkey Observed (@TurkeyObserved) May 17, 2017

Erdogans henchmen were having some good old fun again this morning kicking Kurdish protestors. In DC.

Land of the Free to Kick Some Kurds in the Head

I read that this is not the first time they've done that.

kinda awesome news from iran today

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/strikes-kill-106-civilians-mayadeen-170526132541011.html

Al Jazeera's Patty Culhane, reporting from Washington DC, said the latest air strikes may relate to the so-called 'December Directive' - a memo sent by former US President Barack Obama changing the command structure enabling commanders on the ground to bypass the Pentagon and order air strikes, while also easing the restrictions on when they could fire. US President Donald Trump has maintained this directive.

"They used to have to have 'near certainty' that no civilians would be killed - it's a much looser rule now," she said.

"And that's why you're seeing many human rights groups coming out and saying that those changes need to go back to how they were before the 'December Directive'."

US military admits killing more than 100 civilians in Mosul air strike

The latest strike came as the UN urged all countries bombing ISIL, or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group, in Syria to better distinguish between civilian and military targets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/gunmen-kill-23-christians-in-central-egypt/2017/05/26/3d2693dc-41fc-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_egypt-635a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.66f4e99bb70d

Christians have been generally supportive of Sissi’s military-backed government, but have become increasingly critical of the inability of the country’s security forces to protect their places of worship.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/31/sensitive-uk-terror-funding-inquiry-findings-may-never-be-published-saudi-arabia

whats the fucking point of 'fighting' terrorism when you can't even level with your own people about the causes of it?

What a different world had Britain supported the sherif of Mecca Hussein bin Ali (and then his son Faisal) as suzerain of Arabia in the early 20s, rather than Ibn Saud. Wahabism would be a minor sect in Najd (rather than exported globally), Arabia would have been ruled by a moderate with deep ties to Britain (T.E. Laurence fought with Faisal), and Iraq would have gotten leadership with local roots (Faisal was installed in the midst of the post-Ottoman sectarian conflict there). One of those great "what ifs" of the 20th century.

This is pretty big:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN18W0DQ

KSA, UAE and Egypt are cutting ties with Qatar, accusing it of promoting terrorism among other things.

The Qatari news agency apparently broadcast claims that the ruling family support Iran and Israel - which seems to have been the catalyst for this. Qatar says they were hacked.

Lots of speculation that Qatar will aim to get back into their good books by shutting al Jazeera - which wasn't the network hacked but has apparently annoyed Saudi in the past.

It's been a long time coming. Qatar supported Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Islamists in Libya (UAE supports former Tripoli elites), and permits open funding for Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra) by wealthy individuals, though that accusation is a bit rich, considering sheikh al-Ajmi is based in Kuwait and draws from Kuwaiti and Saudi individuals, too.

From what I've read, it seems unlikely Qatar has supported ISIS or Sh'ia militants in eastern Arabia.

FT has a good summary on the proximate cause.

https://www.ft.com/content/dd033082-49e9-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43