Ken vs. Boris: It's So On

If Orwell had been Chaplin, Polly Toynbee would be

Fiona Kennedy
COMEDIAN

This is still boring.

Bring on PC Ploddick

What do you mean bring me on? Did RED KEN put you up to this? Eh? Eh?

Ok, what's the population split between the inner and outer boroughs. Assuming Johnson trounces Livingstone in the suburbs, and Ken wins convincingly in inner London, who wins?

It mathematically works out at roughly 50/50.

lol paddick is a bent copper am i right?

I agree with Pashmina about people who write posts on the Guardian site. It seems like a lot of them are scumbags, and I guess that some of them are probably part of an orchestrated right-wing campaign, though I have no evidence for that; it just seems likely. It's a pity the Guardian has opened this box; I don't now see how they can close it.

By closing, since most of their writers basically agree with them?

i liked toynbee's 'if you're going to post snark, at least use your real name and not Cockmonkey74 or whatever' rant on CIF

If Boris wins, I say we retreat and build the barricades on the bridges and above circle line. NON PASSARAN!

Bev Bevan type threats will be useless I suppose?

i couldn't find the comments on toynbee -- but one of the orchestrated right-wing campaigners on the comments box for a similar puff-piece by martin jacques raised the issue of ken's support for ian blair over menezes. they'll do anything to discredit him, the swine.

'if you're going to post snark, at least use your real name and not Cockmonkey74 or whatever so we can FIND YOU and MAKE YOU SLEEP WITH BEV BEVAN'

It mathematically works out at roughly 50/50.

But are people assuming higher turnout in the suburbs?

Does anyone live in outer London? Round my way (Harringay) we have had v little campaigning from anyone (one Ken, one Boris, two lib dem local council leaflets, presumably because it's so safe Labour, but a mate who lives in Kingston says they've been flooded with Lib Dem and Tory stuff. Why hasn't Labour been focussing on places like that, or has it, or again,are they not bothering because there is no hope?

Average outer London turnout at the last mayoral election was approx. 45% so presumably (and maybe fatally) Labour are assuming that the outcrops are not really worth bothering with.

Demographically harringey counts as 'inner-london'

lol rly?

damn london is big!

Zone 2!

That's inner, innit?

the only thing that's really raised my bile against ken in the past few years is his response to the menezes thing - it was just knee-jerk blue wall of silence crap of the first order

it seems like ALL mayors have this pure, unshakeable allegiance to their police departments though, which is maybe not so strange but also not very admirable and i wonder if they realize how bad it makes them look

harrinGAY is not inner london

It doesn't matter! There isn't some invisible ring beyond which everyone automatically becomes a Tory shitbag.

It is more a case of harringey having large working clas white and non white populations, more people in social housing higher unemployment that makes it similar to hackney or camden rather than Merton.

There isn't some invisible ring beyond which everyone automatically becomes a Tory shitbag.

it's called the A406

In any case it's when you get out into places like Bromley and Twickenham that you're in real Tory heartland, I wouldn't say it's even a 50:50 split. Even if those boroughs are massive they're also less densely populated even if there is higher turnout.

Haha Twickenham MP is Vincent Cable I should have bothered to check that.

Inner London boroughs, according to the Office of National Statistics:

Camden
Hackney
Hammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
Islington
Kensington and Chelsea
Lambeth
Lewisham
Newham
Southwark
Tower Hamlets
Wandsworth
City of Westminster

fwiw my guess about mayors and their PDs is that the police know a bunch of stuff about the mayor that nobody else knows

So, the spending limit was £420,000 - that's really not a lot for such a big electorate. No wonder they're not bothering in areas they think they'll lose.

the Office of National Statistics can go eat a dick, newham FFS

fwiw my guess about mayors and their PDs is that the police know a bunch of stuff about the mayor that nobody else knows

-- Tracer Hand, Tuesday, April 29, 2008 12:49 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

http://www.hbo.com/thewire/img/castcrew/character_season04/burrell.jpg

Johnson on Toynbee.

She incarnates all the nannying, high-taxing, high-spending schoolmarminess of Blair's Britain... She is the high priestess of our paranoid, mollycoddled, risk-averse, airbagged, booster-seated culture of political correctness and 'elf'n'safety fascism.

...because airbags and booster seats are such bad ideas. This is the exact reason he's such a stupid twat. Playing to the gallery, not thinking for one fucking second of the consequences of his stupid soundbites. He's just not a fucking serious person, which is fine as long as you don't run a fucking city!

He's going to win isn't he?

Will fall to Labour:

Camden
Hackney
Haringey
Islington (probably)
Lambeth
Lewisham
Newham
Southwark
Tower Hamlets

Vulnerable to the LibDems:

Islington

True blue

Hammersmith and Fulham
City of Westminster
Kensington and Chelsea
Wandsworth these days?

For local government fact fans, the London Government Act of 1963 included Greenwich, but excluded Haringey and Newham. So pick your definition.

In demographic and political terms, Haringey feels very similar to Hackney.

xpost

I'm still kind of optimistic that he won't - I can see a lot of wavering voters not ticking that box at the last minute.

He's going to win isn't he?

No, Ken is

There's also a red band running out towards places like Brent and Dagenham and there'll be a ding-dong between the LibDems and the Tories in the South West. The bits on the fringes of Kent and Essex will fall to Boris.

wish i could vote :/

There are a number of polling cards lying around unclaimed in my hallway.

http://www.bettingpro.com/images/17633_next-mayor.bmp

And outer London predictions?

Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
Brent
Bromley
Croydon
Ealing
Enfield
Greenwich
Harrow
Havering
Hillingdon
Hounslow
Kingston upon Thames
Merton
Newham
Redbridge
Richmond upon Thames
Sutton
Waltham Forest

BNP landlslide

well havering is a safe tory bet, having characters like this running around

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/72204527.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF19390335F8FA9CA92A639D545EEC8F0BA208BC3F87336C851A1

Voted very strongly against equal gay rights.

Who, the dog?

robble robble robble

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vote ken out if u dont want to pay for the east london mega mosque which will be a security nightmare and a sacluded community

Ah yes, Steve Allen, broadcaster on LBC with its London Mayor debates sponsored by the Evening Standard.

How do you vote very strongly, do you punch the teller as you go through the division lobby?

re that betting graph, what happened at the end of feb and the beginning of march? is this where google trends is going to actually come in handy?

I wish you could vote too, Hand.

I remember that Momus once scornfully called you a 'progressive'!!