Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

let us know, i'll set aside some cash now

16 days until the next big milestone in the West's march to the right - how are geert's odds looking?

Famous last words, but with all the hype about Wilders, I thought he would be polling 30-35% or something like that. He is at 13% in the last poll I saw. That's less than what the DPP gets in Denmark. Is there anything about the Dutch election system I have missed, or is he pretty far from winning?

If Wilders gets as low as 13% then I'm a Dutchman. But here's hoping.

Can't blame you for thinking that. But he's far from winning. He'll likely end up with 15% tops of the vote. His 'party' lost four times in a row. Everyone seems to forget this, all the time.

Not downplaying it, still way too many people voting for him, but he'll be no factor in forming a government. And I hope both national and international media will finally pay attention and stop giving him this ludicrous amount of coverage, because he's simply not as big a danger as is made out to be. He did a p good job at marginalizing himself this campaign, too, tbh.

(He's definitely left a mark on this country, making the center and right parties move more to the right, but that's a different story)

Honestly, I feel as if this won't end until the populists gets responsibility to do as they say, and fail miserably. That's what happened in Norway. The worst thing that happens is that all the other parties, spooked by the populist right, begins copying their politics with a 'respectable' sheen. In Denmark we have had 16 years and counting of populist immigration policy, and it's done fuck all to any problems. But the DPP won't go into government, even though they now are the biggest party on the right, so they still have a position where they get all the praise for being 'realists' on immigration, and everyone else gets the blame for all the shit they support.

It's exactly the same here. The Christian democrats (CDA) and conservatives (VVD) have shifted to the right a lot, copying slanderous words about refugees Wilders used four years ago. 'Respectable sheen' indeed... Like the DPP I think (but very different from Le Pen) Wilders simply does not want to govern. He doesn't want to be prime minister, because he'll have all to lose. He all but admits it when pushed on this.

It might be because France is a presidential system and Holland/Denmark are parliamental?

Oh definitely*. But I truly believe he wouldn't even want to. He'd have to compromise regardless.

(* Dutch system 101: 150 parliament seats, you need 76 to form a government. Since no party ever gets 75 or more seats, forming a coalition is standard practice, sometimes of three or even four parties. Biggest party has dibs on the prime minister post. None of the parties want to form w/ Wilders.)

Much like Denmark then. We currently have a three-party coalition (Liberals, Conservatives, Libertarians) supported by the Populists (who as I said is the biggest of the four parties). It's a lot of fun, they are at each others throat the whole time, while fucking up my future on a daily basis. Sigh. At least the left is leading in the polls at the moment.

I hear you. Left's not even leading here, they've collectively shrunk over the years. You know you're fucked when you kind of 'hope' our 'black face rules' Tory PM wins because he's not Wilders... It's a shambles tbh.

Wilders did have his chance in 2012, but he blew it. He supported a minority coalition but backed out, causing the gov to fall. He lost all credibility after that.

It's interesting that we'll likely have five parties (Tories, Chr.Dems, LibDem, GreenLeft, Wilders) with 16-30 seats each. Not had such fragmentation, without one huge winner, for a long time. My guess will be a four party coalition, the aforementioned ones without Wilders.

At 13.00 the turnout in Amsterdam was almost double what it was at the same time in 2012 tho. That's incredible. Could be an interesting evening.

Lol, so Wilders' actually had influence and failed miserably already. Not a lot his supporters can do when the mainstream parties - as in Sweden - refuse to include him in a coalition.

The danger there is presumably that Wilders will be leader of the opposition?

Nope, we don't have opposition leaders in our system. Sure, he will be opposition and will be loud, but he's been like that for the past six years tbh.

We don't have one oppo leader I mean, like in other countries.

He'll be the largest though, might that not confer some legitimacy on him?

I realise that I'm speaking from ignorance - is there much history of criticism of policies from inside coalitions? I guess what I'm worried about is that he'll get to say "This is terrible, my untried alternative would be better" on any government policy that people don't like until the next election.

I can see where you're coming from, but the latter is what he's tried to do for the last couple of years. To no avail. Ban the quran, close all mosques, exit out of EU, deport "criminal moroccans". All these untried alternatives will remain untried. He'll ofcourse have some legitimacy, but he'll be one of many (could run up to as much as 12 parties) opposition parties.

Seeing that his party's not gotten any bigger the last six, seven years (not losing a lot, but not gaining either... fingers crossed for tonight) keeps him pretty contained. No doubt this country is getting more and more rightwing though.

(there'll likely be one or two small, new parties, closest to alt-right as we've known here, nibbling off some seats from Wilders, too)

Fingers crossed that Trump might just be the beginning of the end for these right wing populist clowns.

Otm. Unexpectedly anxious/excited abt tonight.

Don't want to make you more anxious, make you think more about it, but can you give us a few signposts/things to look out for?

1. How big will Wilders be? He's got 15 seats now, and will likely get 25-27. Which sucks. If he gets less, he'll celebrate the won seats but it's not enough to boast about tbh. If he pulls a trump and becomes the biggest party the apocalypse will commence.
2. Tories (VVD) will likely be biggest, but lose some seats to PVV. If Rutte can get a margin of 5 or more seats opposed to Wilders, he'll be considered to have done reasonably well and fended off Wilders.
3. Most interesting will be the four parties after those two: D66 (Libdem), CDA (chr dems), GreenLeft, Socialist Party could all get between 15-30 seats, and are sitting around 20 in the polls. The Tories will prob need three of these to form a coalition. If D66 and GreenLeft do as good as projected, it could be a centred coalition with a hint of green (which, given the limited possibilities in this fractured landscape, I would applaud).
4. Labour will be decimated tonight. Whether they get 13 or as low as 8 seats (38 now), they're being destroyed which is quite a big thing for Dutch politics.
5. How many seats do the small/new parties scoop up? It won't matter a whole lot for coalition etc but it's interesting to see how many seats parties like FvD (alt-right'ish) could get. Party of the Animals, Pirate Party etc. The fucking elderly party.
6. And then there's Denk. This will be significant. Two ex Labour mps with a Turkish background campaign as the first party for immigrants. They also are very much behind Erdogan, which - given the row Hollands in with that bastard - is controversial. If they scoop up 5 or 6 seats that's still quite a big signal tho.
7. TL;dr let's hope Wilders won't be too big, but regardless, we'll have a center'ish coalition like we always do.

Exit poll at 21 CET usually gives a pretty accurate view of the results.

Thanks! Forgive me for asking all these questions, and just ignore me if you want to, but the coverage of the election has been pretty pitiful in Denmark. But I see on wikipedia that Wilders won 24 seats in the 2010 election, so he will more or less be back where he was before 2012? Is the Labour collapse perhaps the real story, and are there any big reasons for it, or is it the by now fairly typical faith of a minority coalition partner that we've also seen with the Lib Dems, the FDP in Germany, etc?

What happens if he becomes the biggest? In Denmark, we are currently ruled by the third-biggest party, because they were the ones who could form a coalition, but would it be different for you guys?

Fingers crossed that Trump might just be the beginning of the end for these right wing populist clowns.
― Return of the Flustered Bootle Native (Tom D.)

"Alternative für Deutschland" sounded fresh and modern before Kellyanne Conway. Now, not so much.

Nae mind, Fred! You are correct, last time he plummeted from 24 to 15, so he would be at his old level. This would mean he gained some traction after the refugee crisis but not more than he previously had.
If he does become the biggest party (which would cost his most likely coalition partner VVD seats), he'd be unable to reach 76 seats without a third or even fourth party. All big parties have already ruled out forming a gov with Wilders, due to either being let down in 2012 or simply because he's a racist moron. Even if the VVD reconsider (I wouldn't put it past those bastards) they're not there yet: it's nigh on impossible, and after failing to form a gov other parties will try so, behind his back or not. Which is fair, too. So that's the same as in Denmark I think.
However, him being biggest or winning a lot is still highly problematic obv. It's not a country I want to wake up in tomorrow.

Labour collapsing just isn't a surprise anymore to be a big story. They suffer for ruling with the Tories. The Green Party, Socialists, and even LibDems probably benefit from it. The real leftie Labour voters feel they aren't left enough any more (which is true). Like in the UK it's a party deep in identity crisis tbh.

Real story is prob twofold: will Wilders rise be contained/turn out not be as big, and will the center and left parties (excluding Labour) win big? If that happens it's a reasonably good outcome imho, which will provide a fairly stable, center with a dash of green gov. If Wilders is hot on the Tories heels though, or even become biggest, it will suck big time.

Turnout is crazy high, but no one dares to project what that means for the result.

Turnout is crazy high

Populists will do well then, surely? Unfortunately.

xp What do you foresee would be the consequences of Wilders' becoming the biggest party assuming that you are correct that he would be unable to form a government?

I think partly yes, and partly previously uninterested voters (people with migrant backgrounds). There's also been loads of initiatives by celebs etc to get the 800,000 youths who can vote for the first time to the polling stations. I've no idea tbh. Xp

Mordy: then his hatred driven narrative will dominate the nation for four years again. You would not believe the amount of 'who are Wilders voters and what are they like?!' Thinkpiece sand long reads we've had over the last couple of months, even by the most progressive media. It's excruciating, this normalization of bigotry and racism. As I said, the conservatives, Christian democrats etc, they all adapted his repertoire to appeal to voters leaning towards Wilders. So he may not be prime minister, he's already leaving his mark. Which is a shit stain tbh.

As an opposition party, all he has done up to now is shout racist nonsense, create tension and chaos. If he is the biggest party, his megaphone will be even louder. Don't underestimate his power of division: having someone on the news every night hammering home that people with Turkish or Moroccan descent (his scapegoats), Muslims, do not belong here, leaves deep scars. Even with those able to see his political role realistically, friends of mine. It's poisonous.

EXIT POLL

VVD 31 seats
PVV/Wilders 19
CDA/ChrDems 19
D66/LibDem 19
GreenLeft 16
SocialistParty 14
Labour 9

Whoa... This is p huge. Wilders nowhere near a big win.

nice

Yeah this is - despite obv 13% for Wilders being too much - really, really great news. He hardly won. Center parties like Green and LibDem profiting from Labour collapse (those could've also gone to Wilders/right wing, but that doesn't seem to be the case).

Green Party from 4 to 16 seats!

i don't know how good your exit polls are but in light of the last couple of years i'd hold on for a little why before busting out the champagne

Even tho misery loves company I hope the exit polls are right. They were way off in Clinton/Trump and, iirc, Brexit.

xp jinx

iirc it was our 2015 general election where the exit poll called it wrong, i seem to remember there not being an official Brexit Exit Poll

i'd like to imagine PR makes exit polls more likely to be accurate than the fucked-up vagaries of the UK and US systems

The exit poll in the 2015 election pointed to a Tory majority - I remember the alert popping up on my phone in a pub toilet and immediately wanting to throw up.

Our exit polls are usually fairly accurate, but trust me, I'm not celebrating yet. I cant ever celebrate because Tories still rule this country but... Wilders not as big as projected, nowhere near, at least give me that to be pleased about guys. Give me something, I don't ask for a lot tbh.

think maybe the 2015 poll called a wafer-thin majority compared to how it played out?

It's still a reasonably thin majority but yeah a similar error here in Wilders' favour would not be good.

Well, apparently a bad result for populists in Australia as well: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/03/15/australia-just-delivered-a-blow-to-its-far-right-populists-heres-how-we-did-it/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.05eb2dcdb262

Any Australians who can elaborate?

Re: the 2015 exit poll - all the major polls running up were pointing towards a hung parliament but the first exit poll that came out at 10pm that night predicted a Tory majority, and it was correct.

lol Pauline Hanson is a running joke, she never had a chance.

Already entirely sick of all the triumphant 'populism was defeated!1!' headlines. Populism wasn't defeated, it's been wholly adopted by the mainstream parties.

So the system works?

I suppose.

Freddy B, hats off for the Danish newsreaders presenting a whole item in Dutch!

Lol. Danish people love Dutch, as it's a common held opinion that it's the only language in the world uglier than ours...

Sorry...