Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

Hey, he's still here you know.

"he hasn't gone away you know"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38549000/jpg/_38549447_adams_bbc_238.jpg

I'm actually really glad you're saying that Mordy. I'm not going to stop talking about morality, btw, but I do agree that most of the hate thrown my way was xenophobic nonsense ;) I'm kinda upset that you ruined my chance for a good response to Shakey, but oh well.

Maybe something about reading comprehension too

why start now

i think you misread my comment. i was sincerely asking for some good reasons why she won't win in light of these broader trends

I think the problem is that you're reading this situation through the lens of broader trends instead of numbers

france is absolutely part of this western right wing drift, and le pen is part of that. but she is still nowhere close to getting 50% of france to vote for her + and unlike america, france is a place where you do actually have to get 50% of the population to vote for you. that's kinda the beginning and end of it.

yeah I worry about "the numbers" polls post Trump brexit but I don't see her support having risen enough since the crisis to take the pie. And I think her having been on the scene so long plays against her, like she's not really "change" either, she's another well-known electoral retread. That seems to be a main thing in Macron's favor right now.

Finns Party tanking in the polls having joined the government:

http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finns_party_popularity_slumps_to_seven-year_low/9416414

france is absolutely part of this western right wing drift, and le pen is part of that. but she is still nowhere close to getting 50% of france to vote for her + and unlike america, france is a place where you do actually have to get 50% of the population to vote for you. that's kinda the beginning and end of it.

Well not exactly. What you need is 50% of the population who vote. And the reason why I'm not very optimistic about our election is that there seems to be a lot of people who are no longer involved in politics, who feel left out and disgusted. And these people will either vote for Le Pen out of spite or simply will not bother to show up. If you look at young people especially, a lot of them do not vote at all and amongst the ones who do vote a majority vote for Le Pen. Before Fillon won the primary I've seen a lot of people saying that if it came down to Le Pen versus Sarkozy (as FN vs LR was and still is the most likely scenario, given how bad the PS and left are doing) they wouldn't bother because it's pretty much the same thing. Sarkozy is out but Fillon isn't that much better (might actually be worse) so that issue remains. Low turnout could lead to Le Pen being elected. I wouldn't say it's very likely but I'm not as confident as I would have been 10 years ago.

Do you mean people who don't even like Le Pen will vote for her out of spite?

Obviously they're a minority but there are people like that for sure. "I don't like her ideas but I don't like the others either so I will vote for her just to fuck with them/the elites/the media". I know people IRL who say that. It's very possible of course that they do actually like her ideas but won't admit it so they're trying to frame it differently.

And that's nothing new, of course. There's always been people like that, from as long as I remember. But people seem to be more and more disgusted by "traditional" politics.

It's strange who gets considered part of the elites. According to Yahoo UK commenters even minor celebrities live in "ivory towers".

Finns Party tanking in the polls having joined the government:

http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finns_party_popularity_slumps_to_seven-year_low/9416414

― Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), 21. januar 2017 14:08 (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is key. The same thing happened to the Norwegian Fremskridtsparti when they joined the government. In Denmark, where the DPP is the biggest right-wing party now, they're still doing everything they can to avoid joining the government and taking responsibility. Of course it's different in first-past-the-post systems, but in most countries with parliamental models such as in Sweden and Denmark, I've felt for a long time it would do more good to oppose the populists every step of the way, and if they really win enough votes to govern, let them govern. The real problem comes when the left starts copying their faulty solutions, it just allows them to move further right, and keep on having power without responsibility.

In a German beerhall today:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2sOHGJWIAAiwSX.jpg

somehow the traditional parties of the left have been stuck holding the can for the ravages of global neoliberalism. htf did that happen??

the fact that we've allowed the right to claim they're the ones who will stick up for the little guy in an uncaring world is just fucking preposterous

otm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38718286

so fucking stupid. might as well hand it to wilders now

Yep. He's trying to 'toughen up' his party to snatch Wilders votes. Instead left and right are roasting him right now. Rightfully so. And good that it takes a new fucking election to make him finally admit he thinks only white people can be Dutch.

The only good thing I can see coming from this is that the world better understands that our PM is a blackface loving, clueless-and-proud, post-vision-and-proud wanker.

dean baker implicitly chides me for contending that it's 'globalization' that has left workers in france and italy mad about ting:

http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/it-s-austerity-not-globalization-that-is-making-workers-in-france-and-italy-unhappy

always good to be reminded that the forces of neoliberalism are not 'impersonal' (though it may feel like that) - they're the consequence of deliberate action taken by policymakers

i am happy about hamon. valls' statement could have been written by blairbots:

“There is now a very clear choice between certain defeat and possible victory, between unachievable promises and a credible left that takes responsibility"

among hamon's proposals: UBI, taxing robots, legal weed.

Christ, they really are shallow enough to think a mid-price suit and an NLP course will take them to power

they think it's still 1998

Just worked over here didn't it

Heyoooo

NLP = "tap 'em on the pussy" ?

That's more or less what the guy from Whitehouse was promising from his NLP course.

my problem with Hamon is that mentions of him remind me of this guy

http://img.20mn.fr/jHaz7H3NT8q73KEliE5n_w/2048x1536-fit_john-hamon-john-hamon.jpg

whose posters appear irregularly all over Paris. though I dunno, maybe that's why people voted for Hamon!

i feel bad for singling out the more headline-grabbing of hamon's proposals - he does have a lot of thought-through policies. but even the eccentric stuff is not that eccentric, and the left needs policies that cut through (i.e. fight for 15, etc)

also he was foursquare against any form of burkini ban and valls was for it so fuck valls forever honestly. that position should dog him to his grave.

i may have just heard this incorrectly on the radio but i think valls has said hamon will increase the likelihood of successful terrorist attacks against France.

lol at Fillon's wife getting paid a cool half mil for just being his wife. I'm not surprised, exactly. But it's an indicator of just how entitled and above the law these people think they are (and they're mainly right about this!) They really do think they're masters of the universe.

Hope to god this 1) Opens the race up 2) Does not swing support to Le Pen. These may be incompatible wishes.

i may have just heard this incorrectly on the radio but i think valls has said hamon will increase the likelihood of successful terrorist attacks against France.

I don't know if he actually said that but he and his side have been made not-so-subtle hints at this, calling Hamon an Islamo-leftist ("islamo-gauchiste").

*have made

"getting paid a cool half mil"

Never understood what "cool" means when people are talking about money. Surely it can't just mean that it's cool to have lots of money.

'cool' draws attention both to the amount and the casualness with which it has been dealt with imo

-with

it's only half a million euros - no big deal

what exactly is the FN position on taxing the rich?

from wiki:

Marine Le Pen denounces the current corporate tax as "a crying injustice". She claims that the main groups of CAC 40 only pay 8% of corporate tax whereas the small offices/home offices, the small and medium enterprises, the craftsmen and the shopkeepers fully pay 33.33%. She advocates to implement a flexible corporate tax according to the use of profits: heavier when the profits benefit the shareholders and lighter when the profits turn towards profit sharing, salaries, employment and productive investment, enabling a relocation of activities.[237]

from bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/the-far-left-economics-of-frances-far-right

Le Pen says France has been “left alone, naked” to face unchecked globalization. She wants France to leave the European Union and pull out of the euro currency so it can keep tight controls on imports while devaluing its currency “to relaunch exports and employment.” The FN platform calls for a 3 percent tax on all imports that would be used to give a €200 ($270) monthly bonus to the country’s lowest-paid workers.

She also wants the government to play a stronger role in managing the economy—for example, by temporarily nationalizing banks and forcing them to “clean up” their practices. “We still believe in free markets,” she says. “The danger is ultra-liberalism, where financial markets impose all the rules.”

While Hollande has been raising taxes in an effort to narrow the budget deficit, the FN’s economic platform is packed with expensive crowd-pleasers, such as a 20 percent cut in the gas tax and a lowering of the standard retirement age to 60. (Then-President Nicolas Sarkozy of the center-right raised it to 62 only three years ago.) Le Pen says the government can save money by cutting waste, ending social benefits for immigrants, and eliminating payments to the EU.

She’s not an anti-tax campaigner, though. “I am for a social protection system, à la française,” she says. “In this country we are willing to pay a certain level of taxes in order to assure a certain standard of living.”

Standard issue stuff for fascist parties until they actually get in power.

https://s29.postimg.org/ij487u1xz/image.png

thx Douglas Murray

One of the BBC's favourite go-to pundits of course.

Yes, along with Fraser Nelson.

And that woman from the Taxpayers Alliance.

various Labour figures are also associated with Murray via the Henry Jackson Society (of which hey is associate director):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/20/labour-cut-ties-henry-jackson-society

It wasn't so much integration that Murray wanted to talk about, however, but skin colour:

"We long ago reached the point where the only thing white Britons can do is to remain silent about the change in their country. Ignored for a generation, they are expected to get on, silently but happily, with abolishing themselves, accepting the knocks and respecting the loss of their country. 'Get over it. It's nothing new. You're terrible. You're nothing'."

I knew Murray had bad opinions, but I hadn't quite realised that he's a full-on "white genocide" type

He's a full-on scumbag.

That Spectator piece by Murray is something else... Don't know where to begin.

Yet this time, there was a response to the rebuff. A new party — Forum for Democracy — arose out of the plebiscite. Led by one of Holland’s smartest and most prominent young intellectuals, Thierry Baudet,

Pour one out, I died laughing at "smartest and most prominent young intellectual".

Murray conveniently leaves out that Wilders has already had a seat at the table, supporting a minority cabinet. But he wasted his opportunity, retrieved support, the cabinet fell, and now no-one wants to govern with him anymore because he's proven to be deeply untrustworthy.

I'm not saying he won't be the biggest party (though he has lost four elections in a row up till now, mind) this time around. But Murray only pushes him more into the 'anti-establishment' position Wilders revels in. Together with two others, he's been in parliament the longest of all pm's: 18 years. That's how 'anti-establishment' and 'anti-elite' he is.