Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

obv this would be even more dramatic if it included data from 2016 as well

http://i67.tinypic.com/alsro2.png

That's refugees, not immigrants. And btw, most indicators I've seen says that it has tapered off in 2016, it was some quite specific circumstances that led to that shameful crisis. I can assure you, the populist drift in Europe did not begin with the Syrian war.

idk you might find a lot of interesting data here that might force you to complicate your narrative that the current immigration situation in europe is comparable + within the same continuum as french colonization of algeria: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_migrant_crisis

What's the point you are trying to make Fred, other than being contrarian for the sake of it?

you hear a lot of white Brits on the BBC news saying "there's too many immigrants but i have no issue with refugees and i clearly recognise the difference between the two categories" tbf

To what extent has Macron been successful in presenting himself as a break with the past, rather than a defender of the status quo, as has been the problem with Clinton and other centrists?

In general 'sensible' neoliberal centrists have not done too well against neofascist populists but if Macron can adequately distance himself from the rest of the political class then that might help. I'd still like to believe that enough of the French electorate will vote for anyone but Le Pen, but I'm not confident.

That's refugees, not immigrants.

refugees are a type of immigrant btw

At the moment I'm trying to figure out what on earth Mordy is talking about, as it's really hard to know how to respond without knowing that. It's really really vague and most of what he is saying doesn't really fit together. Because yeah, it matters whether we are discussing the specific situation of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, which clearly hasn't shown it's full impact in European politics so far - and will probably impact Germany more than France? - or whether we're discussing the populist drift over the last few decades, which covers much more of the history of LePen and Front National.

If your argument with this thread is that the right wing drift is not new (and consequently has nothing to do w recent trends) then just say that. I don't think I've written anything complicated here and you can go back through the thread and see plenty of what I consider examples of this trend. I think an honest reading of the last few decades does suggest a new phenomenon at the moment but you're entitled to dig deeper for its roots as far back as you'd like to go.

need to start from that point when Western democracies were really left wing

Like can it both be true that EU skepticism and bilateral skepticism is on the rise while skepticism has always existed? Maybe we should be discussing boiling points acc to you but if you don't think Brexit and Trump are a break with recent history I mean that's a bit myopic no?

tbh, I think with the benefit of hindsight there are probably significant stretches of recent British history when Brexit could potentially have won had anyone been daft enough to put it to a referendum. The press-led hostility to the European Union has been present for decades.

Also I'm kind of lol'ing at Mordy going from 'no no, I just ask questions, I don't pretend to know with confidence' to 'here's some wikipedia numbers that show you're wrong about the area where you live' in an hour and a half...

And I do value your opinion as an outsider, Mordy. I really do. But when you're ussplaining the recent refugee crisis, and doesn't use the word 'refugee' once, it's not really my fault that the discussion becomes tedious. How was I supposed to know which immigrant crisis you were talking about?

If you're discussing immigration and Brexit, then that's Eastern European immigration, ie. Christians, and terror doesn't really play into it. If you want to discuss the upcoming German election with immigration, then yup, the refugee crisis is probably the most important thing. Ditto Sweden, I'd wager, for specific historical reasons (Syrian immigration has historically been so large that Syrianska FC has played in the top tier football league since 2010, and a lot of new refugees went to places they knew to be welcoming already). But it's different all over Europe, and so much of it is connected to much larger historical reasons.

Fred I think you're very confused about my arguments in this thread. I said I can't say with confidence who will win the French elections.

If you're discussing immigration and Brexit, then that's Eastern European immigration, ie. Christians, and terror doesn't really play into it

yeah this isn't entirely true. there is definitely an anti-syrian refugee tendency in britain which informs some of the brexiteers thought. "britain will be able to better control its borders when it leaves the eu, germany has taken in too many syrian refugees" etc.

Shit I'm sorry, Syrianska got relegated in 2014. Oh well, hopefully they've gotten a new influx of talent.

i.e. https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/812553447035834368

i didn't realize that the idea that europe was experiencing an immigration crisis that was emboldening the right-wing was even controversial tbh! i feel like it has been the main story of the last 2 years. otoh i'm not sure if that's even what fred is taking exception with. so.

To what extent has Macron been successful in presenting himself as a break with the past, rather than a defender of the status quo, as has been the problem with Clinton and other centrists?

I've seen it argued that Macron's centrist/third-way positioning is convincingly a break with the past in a French context, in as much as the French Socialist Party never quite reformed itself into a pro-free market party the way most of its counterparts in other western countries did? though I remember people saying the same thing about Renzi and the Italian left.

with the admission upfront that i don't know enough about french politics to give a definitive opinion on this-- isn't "third-way" centrism the very thing that left-wing political orgs (Clinton Dems, Blair Labour, etc) have attributed their continuing failures to? why would such an ideological position be a boon in france and not a major disqualification?

well if the argument that soref is bringing up is correct it may be the fact that it offers change in france, whereas in other countries where pasokification and the failure of liberal centrism has occurred it's because it became the status quo and people wanted a rupture

isn't hollande the status quo and isn't he just another face of modern capitalist neoliberalism (and internationalism lite)?

like a big talking pt in the US elections were that Clinton/Bush were two sides of the same thing - a consensus about international trade agreements, neoliberalism, free marketism, etc, with mainly cosmetic differences. that sounds applicable here as well.

ussplaining

also guys i think it's ok for ppl from other countries to talk about different countries and even to argue with ppl from those countries at times. if someone from denmark had kept telling ilx that trump was going to win we certainly would've gotten annoyed and ppl might've told them to shut up based on their being from denmark, but ultimately they would've been right and US ILX would've been wrong. just do it w/ a little humility and don't browbeat people with the same arguments over and over again. also there's a big difference between making ongoing moral arguments attached to a political narrative and amoral forecasting/interpretation. the former rubs ppl the wrong way whether you're from a different country or not. that's i think what annoys ppl about fred - not that he's not from the US but is interested in US politics. it's that he's annoying a good % of the time in politics threads and that he's not from the US is a convenient way to mock him but unrelated to the fundamental problems w/ his posting style.

Hey, he's still here you know.

"he hasn't gone away you know"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38549000/jpg/_38549447_adams_bbc_238.jpg

I'm actually really glad you're saying that Mordy. I'm not going to stop talking about morality, btw, but I do agree that most of the hate thrown my way was xenophobic nonsense ;) I'm kinda upset that you ruined my chance for a good response to Shakey, but oh well.

Maybe something about reading comprehension too

why start now

i think you misread my comment. i was sincerely asking for some good reasons why she won't win in light of these broader trends

I think the problem is that you're reading this situation through the lens of broader trends instead of numbers

france is absolutely part of this western right wing drift, and le pen is part of that. but she is still nowhere close to getting 50% of france to vote for her + and unlike america, france is a place where you do actually have to get 50% of the population to vote for you. that's kinda the beginning and end of it.

yeah I worry about "the numbers" polls post Trump brexit but I don't see her support having risen enough since the crisis to take the pie. And I think her having been on the scene so long plays against her, like she's not really "change" either, she's another well-known electoral retread. That seems to be a main thing in Macron's favor right now.

Finns Party tanking in the polls having joined the government:

http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finns_party_popularity_slumps_to_seven-year_low/9416414

france is absolutely part of this western right wing drift, and le pen is part of that. but she is still nowhere close to getting 50% of france to vote for her + and unlike america, france is a place where you do actually have to get 50% of the population to vote for you. that's kinda the beginning and end of it.

Well not exactly. What you need is 50% of the population who vote. And the reason why I'm not very optimistic about our election is that there seems to be a lot of people who are no longer involved in politics, who feel left out and disgusted. And these people will either vote for Le Pen out of spite or simply will not bother to show up. If you look at young people especially, a lot of them do not vote at all and amongst the ones who do vote a majority vote for Le Pen. Before Fillon won the primary I've seen a lot of people saying that if it came down to Le Pen versus Sarkozy (as FN vs LR was and still is the most likely scenario, given how bad the PS and left are doing) they wouldn't bother because it's pretty much the same thing. Sarkozy is out but Fillon isn't that much better (might actually be worse) so that issue remains. Low turnout could lead to Le Pen being elected. I wouldn't say it's very likely but I'm not as confident as I would have been 10 years ago.

Do you mean people who don't even like Le Pen will vote for her out of spite?

Obviously they're a minority but there are people like that for sure. "I don't like her ideas but I don't like the others either so I will vote for her just to fuck with them/the elites/the media". I know people IRL who say that. It's very possible of course that they do actually like her ideas but won't admit it so they're trying to frame it differently.

And that's nothing new, of course. There's always been people like that, from as long as I remember. But people seem to be more and more disgusted by "traditional" politics.

It's strange who gets considered part of the elites. According to Yahoo UK commenters even minor celebrities live in "ivory towers".

Finns Party tanking in the polls having joined the government:

http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finns_party_popularity_slumps_to_seven-year_low/9416414

― Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), 21. januar 2017 14:08 (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is key. The same thing happened to the Norwegian Fremskridtsparti when they joined the government. In Denmark, where the DPP is the biggest right-wing party now, they're still doing everything they can to avoid joining the government and taking responsibility. Of course it's different in first-past-the-post systems, but in most countries with parliamental models such as in Sweden and Denmark, I've felt for a long time it would do more good to oppose the populists every step of the way, and if they really win enough votes to govern, let them govern. The real problem comes when the left starts copying their faulty solutions, it just allows them to move further right, and keep on having power without responsibility.

In a German beerhall today:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2sOHGJWIAAiwSX.jpg

somehow the traditional parties of the left have been stuck holding the can for the ravages of global neoliberalism. htf did that happen??

the fact that we've allowed the right to claim they're the ones who will stick up for the little guy in an uncaring world is just fucking preposterous

otm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38718286

so fucking stupid. might as well hand it to wilders now

Yep. He's trying to 'toughen up' his party to snatch Wilders votes. Instead left and right are roasting him right now. Rightfully so. And good that it takes a new fucking election to make him finally admit he thinks only white people can be Dutch.

The only good thing I can see coming from this is that the world better understands that our PM is a blackface loving, clueless-and-proud, post-vision-and-proud wanker.

dean baker implicitly chides me for contending that it's 'globalization' that has left workers in france and italy mad about ting:

http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/it-s-austerity-not-globalization-that-is-making-workers-in-france-and-italy-unhappy

always good to be reminded that the forces of neoliberalism are not 'impersonal' (though it may feel like that) - they're the consequence of deliberate action taken by policymakers

i am happy about hamon. valls' statement could have been written by blairbots:

“There is now a very clear choice between certain defeat and possible victory, between unachievable promises and a credible left that takes responsibility"

among hamon's proposals: UBI, taxing robots, legal weed.

Christ, they really are shallow enough to think a mid-price suit and an NLP course will take them to power

they think it's still 1998

Just worked over here didn't it