The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

am kinda expecting Clinton to win by 10 points at the moment tbh

Trump definitely trying to sow the "I'm going to lose because the Republicans turned their backs on me" narrative rn

I'm hoping for a "McGovern in '72"-level loss for Trump here.

definitely hoping for that

Would love him to be crushed humiliated annihilated, but I doubt it'll happen.

would u accept a mondale? cruz in april:

“Poll after poll after poll” shows Trump losing by double digits in the general election, Cruz argued at Saturday’s RJC meeting.

The poll he chose to highlight was from Utah, a state Cruz won by a landslide, to show Trump losing to Hillary Clinton. “If the Republican can not carry bright, bright red, conservative Utah we’re looking at a bloodbath of Walter Mondale proportions.”

oh it's gonna happen

xp

we'll never see the like of '84 again tho

Michael Tracey has finally slipped into self-parody

@mtracey
If, as most claim, Trump is overwhelmingly likely to lose: why is the media focus still so heavily on Trump instead of HRC, the next POTUS?

I mean, when you think about it, I guess there's NOT much point in the media covering the fact that one of the two main parties' candidate is a fascist sex offender, after all he *probably* won't win

kinda gets old after 6 months

I get old every November.

morbs taking an unexpected stance against endless repetition there

Alfred, yesterday:

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lugqgoFgI51qb00dd.jpg

For comparison, according to Wikipedia:

*1972*

Nominee Richard Nixon George McGovern
Party Republican Democratic
Electoral vote 520 17
States carried 49 1 + DC
Popular vote 47,168,710 29,173,222
Percentage 60.7% 37.5%

*1984*

Nominee Ronald Reagan Walter Mondale
Party Republican Democratic
Electoral vote 525 13
States carried 49 1 + DC
Popular vote 54,455,472 37,577,352
Percentage 58.8% 40.6%

God, these were both absolutely brutal slaughters.

whoah totally forgot that Nixon carried 49 states wtf

Losing an election like one of those must be like...taking a $1,000,000,000 loss in a single calendar year

FDR/Landon still the biggest electoral blowout ever cuz there were two fewer states.

omg that invoice

hahahahahaha

When Clinton was ahead after the conventions I wished that people in this thread would not crow so loud about the inevitability of her victory, and I feel the same way now.

Other than showing that October polls are a good indicator of the outcome of the election, note in this figure that Clinton's lead is actually pretty small compared to many previous elections, and isn't anywhere near the historical landslides.

http://i2.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/enten-oct-polls-11.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=1150&ssl=1

It won't be a landslide. A real landslide is impossible today. And Clinton winning is not inevitable, either. Literally all it took to trigger her September slide was for her to have a little fainting spell. A lot of things worse than that could happen between now and 11/8

biggest margin might be Harding/Cox.

"what should we bill this to in Quicbooks?"
"eh just put it under Voter Suppression"

xp

no one thinks that invoice is real do they? please tell me no one believes that is real

oh it's gonna happen

Nah, life is never that perfect.

Like I've said, landslides demand lots of party switching; we're simply too polarized for presidents to get more than Obama did in 2008.

Other than showing that October polls are a good indicator of the outcome of the election, note in this figure that Clinton's lead is actually pretty small compared to many previous elections, and isn't anywhere near the historical landslides.

"many previous elections" = 4 out 17?

Would love him to be crushed humiliated annihilated, but I doubt it'll happen.

I was referring to this statement fwiw, and he will be crushed/humiliatied/annihilated insofar as it will be the biggest margin for a GOP Prez candidate loss in decades.

DJP, I'm seeing 8 october leads larger than hers on that plot, I think?

oh, I see. I was reading the chart in terms of Democratic competitiveness so the Republican leads didn't matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landslide_victory#United_States

we got sharks out the kazoo here

he is having so much fun being listened to http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/trump-endorses-brain-damage-in-speech-that-claims-footb-1752141045

no one thinks that invoice is real do they? please tell me no one believes that is real

oh i don't know. if someone can be convinced that DJT is fit to lead the free world i suspect there's no end to the things you could convince this person to believe.

When Clinton was ahead after the conventions I wished that people in this thread would not crow so loud about the inevitability of her victory, and I feel the same way now.

Understandable and I won't breathe fully easy until I can, but I think you're missing two key points:

* Trump's ridiculously horrible three weeks, counting this one, since the weekend before the first debate, arguably his high point as such -- Ted Cruz had come on board, there was high level antsiness about the upcoming first debate, notably tight polling all around. Since then, collapse, and right in the stretch, now compounded by the absolutely ridiculous if predictable infighting. The space of time between that highpoint weekend and the end of this week was essentially half the remaining distance to the election and the results are as we see them. I mean, we're at a point where it's entirely possible Trump won't win Utah.

* Unlike after the conventions, voting is now well underway, and while both sides have their enthusiasts, the HRC one is the one that's crazy dedicated to getting to them as much as possible and getting votes locked in. And once in, that's that, no takebacks. Add on the fact that a lot of people just want to see Trump eat it badly -- and that's more than they want to see HRC do -- and I think you need to take a little stock here.

there's a difference between 'the polls sure look bad' and 'the major players in your own party are saying they won't vote for you'

in that football thing he says "now they say 'game over 15 yard penalty you can't kick a field goal'"? is he saying that offensive players are getting a lot of helmet to helmet penalties or does he not understand the defense can't kick a field goal?

Check out @adamcald11's Tweet: https://twitter.com/adamcald11/status/785878268427644928?s=09

another important thing to bear in mind: the election result isn't "october poll avg ± X" where X is about 10 points, which is what that chart perhaps suggests. the chart ignores the issue of momentum, as in which way is the race moving. it's clearly moving toward hillary right now, and it's proving difficult to stop, much less turn around at the moment, and there's < 4 weeks to go.

There was a piece earlier this year that had a nice point -- that Trump rallies were essentially 'safe spaces' for the disenchanted who backed Trump over all else. What we're seeing is essentially the logical conclusion of that: in the internal world of rallies, certain TV/radio hosts, siloed political talk, everything is coming up Trump while everyone else is going "Uh...you're all kinda nuts, you know." The key difference here between true believers for a doomed campaign in the past and now is that Trump seems to have pretty much bought his own schtick, so they can't let go.

if someone can be convinced that DJT is fit to lead the free world i suspect there's no end to the things you could convince this person to believe.

A Trumpkin on my FB feed is convinced the Rudy/Hillary 9/11 photo is a photoshop because "if this was to have have been taken on 9/11 or shortly thereafter, where is the debris and dust? and those FDNY hats came out the same day? and thats an awful lot of spectators for a disaster area?" So yeah, there's no end of tin foil hattery.

https://twitter.com/adamcald11/status/785878268427644928?s=09

whoah who made this

Meantime, Rick Wilson, who I mentioned earlier, seems to have a pretty good inside line on certain things, and he's been dropping hints that another big Trump fuckup moment is nigh, adding there 'is a Boston angle' in particular. Hmm indeed, guess we'll see.

so it's a racial slur then

Not sure, Shakey, it showed up in my feed retweeted from someone else. But it'seems damned effective.

so it's a racial slur then

haha yup

That "13th" video clip legit made me go cold.

The Twitter video is a clip from Ava DuVernay's 13TH. xp

Ah, got it. That's in my Netflix queue.

Meanwhile the self clowning continues: http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/manmentum.html?m=1

dding there 'is a Boston angle' in particular. Hmm indeed, guess we'll see.

― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, October 12, 2016 4:29 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Trump revealed to be the original bassist in Slapshot!!!

It's an amusing connection that Trump's football whining is similar to what his business partner and thinkalike Vince McMahon said in '00-01 when VKM started the XFL, an alternate gridiron league notable for greatly reduced safety measures matched up with hype for violence, and a player who busted his neck/clavicle on the very first play of the very first game.