From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

It's definitely possible it was Russian intelligence and they are just really bad. Another possibility would be Russian amateur hackers - and there are plenty of them tied in with Wikileaks.

According to the link you posted, the Guccifer character, and the first leaks, was created 24 hours after the Dems revealed the hack, which could explain a lot of the ineptitude. And if it's just amateur hackers, why go through the Guccifer deception?

If they can't get a Romanian speaker and wipe metadata within 24 hours it's still a pretty damning indictment of their abilities.

I've seen a few people suggesting a third position - that it could be government-linked online propagandists not operationally connected to the GNU or FSB - a 'troll factory' or something similar. It looks like the VPN IP address has only been used for a few things in the past - predominantly nuisance attacks and a Russian bride scam. It might explain the lower level of tech savvy.

Well, a lot of is still unknown, so who knows. But that would still make it government-linked, quite scary, and a really bad look for wiki-leaks.

Yes, it would still make it government linked. It would be quite reassuring if it was the FSB and they're staffed by bumbling incompetents these days. I'm sure they get up to much worse before breakfast though.

Assange has his own show on RT - which probably makes RT looks worse by association than Assange these days tbh.

Something going down in Armenia:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-armenia-violence-idUKKCN0ZX06S

Armed men have seized a police station and there is talk of an attempted coup (though this seems a stretch).

There have been protests in Freedom Square and mass arrests.

This siege is still going on, btw. They have held the police station for ten days and added more hostages today when they captured an ambulance crew.

The "Primorsky Partisans" have been released, following their acquittal at retrial last week:

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/jury-rules-not-guilty-in-primorsky-partizany-retrial-54654

It's a fascinating rabbit hole to go down.

What has always widely been assumed is that they were a group of around eight men who went on a rampage in Eastern Russia - shooting / stabbing police officers and raiding a station. They'd been convicted of two murders, along with a variety of other crimes, and were thought to have killed at least another four people.

The question had always been whether they did so as part of a wider criminal enterprise - essentially that they were bandits who killed police officers who were on their trail - or, as was claimed by associates, that they were leading a civilian fightback against corrupt police involved in drug trafficking. They got quite a lot of local support and have been picked up by some higher-profile Kremlin critics as counter-cultural heroes.

Sympathetic coverage of the "Sassoun Daredevils" in The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/30/armenia-hostage-police-station-fourth-summer-of-protest

Doesn't mention the group actually killed one of the policemen.

The 'Daredevils' apparently killed another police officer with sniper fire from within the compound today.

Fairly balanced statement from the EU:

http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/armenia/press_corner/all_news/news/2016/2016_07_21_en.htm

Crowds of protesters are gathering in the central square again so there will be a lot of scrutiny of how the police respond. They were widely condemned for heavy-handed tactics last night.

Siege in Yerevan over!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36937346?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Interesting piece on Manafort's activities in Ukraine:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/01/us/paul-manafort-ukraine-donald-trump.html?_r=0

It suggests that he was actually pushing Yanukovich to move closer to Europe and lobbying the US to support EU membership - advice Yanukovich ultimately ignored.

Also covers some of his business activity - including the private equity company he founded with Rick Davis that drew a huge amount of money from Oleg Deripaska, who has an interesting and colourful business history.

It's worth noting that Rick Davis (and Davis-Manafort inc.) had a major role in John McCain's 2008 presidential run. He set up a meeting between Deripaska and McCain too.

A fairly blunt assessment of the current state of government in Ukraine from a pro-Euromaidan, anti-Yanukovich journalist:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/01/kiev-in-denial-ukraine-poroshenko-corruption/

The gist is that corruption is deepening and the elites are banking on Ukraine's notional position as a bulwark against Russia to ensure indefinite, unscrutinised foreign funding. Also a dark hint towards the end that the nationalists currently fighting separatists could easily turn on the government.

Crimea a flashpoint again:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/10/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-armed-crimea-incursion

Notwithstanding the fact that Crimea is technically still Ukraine, Russia has accused Ukrainian border guards of starting a firefight with soldiers to distract from a group of 20 saboteurs crossing over. Two Russian soldiers were supposedly killed. Ukraine denies any of this took place and says it's 'hybrid warfare' / a provocation designed to justify retaliatory action at some point in the future.

Saboteurs have apparently bombed power lines supplying Crimea before, though i think they were located in 'mainland Ukraine' rather than Crimea. There have been quite a few minor bombings blamed on Ukrainians / Tatars.

I've seen a few people suggesting that if it did take place, the fact that it took them two or three days to catch two of the twenty and the rest were able to cross and recross the border at will would be pretty embarrassing to Russia.

Putin has replaced Sergei Ivanov, his chief of staff, with Anton Vaino. Ivanov was generally thought of as one of the three or four most powerful people in the government..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37058751

The takes range from 'Ivanov was trying to defuse tension over Ukraine in the face of renewed adventurism from Putin' to 'replacing a former FSB chief with a diplomat shows that Russia wants to refocus on negotiation and engagement', which goes to show how remarkably little anyone really knows about what goes on at the Kremlin.

There's speculation that Islam Karimov may have popped his clogs. He was taken to hospital in a "serious condition" last night.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37208407

Good, fairly balanced profile piece on Ukrainian journalists-turned-political-reformers Mustafa Nayyem and Sergei Leshchenko in The New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/09/05/reforming-ukraine-after-maidan

thanks for that link

Looks like today could be the day someone finally opens the box on Schrödinger's Karimov, though the new Reuters headline "Karimov dies - diplomatic sources" still links through to an article about him being critically ill and Nazarbayev going to pay him a visit.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-uzbekistan-president-health-idUKKCN1180A8?il=0

It appears to have been confirmed by his family (in true Central Asian style) via Instagram.

There is a lot of speculation that the succession was more or less finalised when Gulnara was given the boot for being too fabulous but nobody seems to know who is taking over.

Was he the one with the crazy pop star plutocrat daughter?

Yep - who hasn't been seen for two years.

Yeah I just read that! Good luck Uzbecks.

tbh, as long as whoever comes in doesn't boil dissidents alive and shorten the school year so nine-year-olds can do extra unpaid forced labour in the cotton fields they at least have a shot at being an improvement.

Former Gawker co-owner Viktor Vekselberg is currently having his offices raided and top management staff interviewed by police over allegations of corruption. His mining business is accused of bribing the regional government of Komi.

It's presumably linked to the criminal case against the former governor of Komi, Vyacheslav Gaizer, who's accused of running an organised crime ring. When police searched his property, they found 60kg of jewelry and 150 watches - worth between $30k and $1m each.

The offices of Kiev oligarch Dmytro Firtash's TV station, Inter, were set on fire in an arson attack yesterday - with staff still inside. It has been accused of being too sympathetic to Russia.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/inter-tv-studios-set-ablaze-in-arson-attack-422228.html

Depressing to see the very good polling operation Levada potentially blacklisted by the Russian government under laws designed to give extra scrutiny to NGOs receiving money from foreign actors - in this case, allegedly, the U.S. government:

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/levada-center-blacklisted-55217

Hopefully they will win the appeal. There is speculation it has been timed to stop them reflecting a dip in a United Russia's ratings ahead of the election.

idk whether it's connected to the Vekselberg investigation but the police raided the home of one of Russia's top anti-corruption officials at the weekend and found $122m in cash, which will take some explaining.

https://www.rt.com/news/358891-russia-corruption-officer-dollars/

He was keeping it safe from evildoers

State Duma elections today - the most notable thing seems to be a vastly reduced turnout so far. Moscow region has consistently registered about 50% turnout by 6pm in recent elections, down to 29% today. No obvious enthusiasm for opposition parties but potentially a weaker show of support for United Russia than in years.

First exit polls have United Russia on 45, the far-right Liberal Democratic Party and the ghastly Communist Party on 15 apiece, the far-right/centre-left mishmash of A Just Russia on 8 and the main liberal party, Yabloko, on 3.5 - likely to miss the cut to get any state funding.

https://mobile.twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/777569666436915200/photo/1

https://themoscowtimes.com/photogalleries/election-2016-vote-for-55364

I came across these campaign posters today. My favourite is the PARNAS party one.

This is interesting:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-corruption-idUSKBN12V1EN

There's a new e-declaration system which Ukrainian politicians are meant to use to list their assets - tied to the ongoing IMF threats to turn off the money tap if corruption isn't tackled. The Prime Minister, who is 38, has a salary of $3000 a year and afaik has only ever held similarly-paid public sector jobs, declared 15 properties and $1.8m in bundles of physical cash. Others have been declaring million-dollar wine collections, luxury watches and sports cars.

I'd still assume it's only a fraction of their actual wealth but it's interesting, and probably positive, that it's being done at all.

Moldova's presidential election is going to a second round with neither of the candidates getting the 51% they needed in the first vote. Igor Dodon, who's a great admirer of Putin, should win comfortable barring an upset - having got 48.5% vs the pro-EU candidate's 38%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37814503

It also looks like Georgian Dream, possibly the only political party named after a rap track released by the founder's son, has taken a huge majority in their elections - trouncing the corpse of Misha Saakashvili's party.

They're generally in favour of the EU (both parties are) but seen as much closer to Russia than the opposition.

*comfortably*

Lots of strange goings-on in Montenegro at the moment.

The government claims to have foiled a plot to take over parliament on election day (16th October) and kill the newly-installed PM, replacing them with a nationalist coalition. Supposedly, 500 people were set to storm the building with the help of 'hired sharpshooters'. The police seized barbed wire, knuckle-dusters and baseball bats and arrested twenty people, all Serbian nationals afaict, on the 16th - including a former police commander. The special prosecutor has said that at least two Russian nationalists were involved in organising / directing the plot.

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-s-prosecution-says-nationalists-from-russia-behind-coup--11-06-2016

Seventeen of the twenty people have been released without charge already and the three still being held have not been charged, as yet.

Misha Saakashvili has quit as head of the Odessa region:

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/saakashvili-resigning-post-odesa-regional-state-administration-head.html

He claimed the Kyiv government are "filth, scum, traitors to the revolution and war profiteers" and seems to have accused Poroshenko of being in league with the Odessa mafia:

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/saakashvili-resigning-post-odesa-regional-state-administration-head.html

He's pretty popular with a section of the public but has had next to no official support for months and can't get anything done.

idk why i posted that link twice.

His (Dutch) wife Sandra Roelofs - once first lady - is running for parliament in Georgia and it looks like she will get a seat. Which I find rather odd since her husband is exiled from the country isn't he?

That's interesting.

There is an open case against him for abuse of power so, if he did go back, he'd be arrested. iirc one of the reasons he gave up his Georgian passport and took Ukrainian citizenship was to avoid being deported.

There are competing theories as to why he quit - one is that he still has his eye on going back to Georgia and feels that the problems in Ukraine are going to taint that. Another is that he's naturally impulsive and easily frustrated and just wasn't cut out for the slow grind of systemic reform.

*Extradited, rather than deported.

Thanks SV. Those theories do not necessarily compete though, they're probably both not far off from the truth.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c129a2c-81a0-3e3a-b17b-792646ea85eb

Estonia’s prime minister has lost a parliamentary no confidence vote, opening up the possibility that a pro-Russian party could join a new government at a sensitive moment.

They're pretty benign for a "pro-Russia" party, tbf, and have mainly won their support from the portion of Russian-Estonians allowed to vote by campaigning on economic issues like increasing the minimum wage, iirc. They're pretty firmly European and would just be one partner in a coalition (though i would guess they'd become the senior one).

Igor Dodon has won the Moldovan election, as expected:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37970155

Describing it as 'pro-Russia' vs 'pro-Europe/US' is an oversimplification. There's a lot of domestic politics that gets glossed over. This probably didn't help though:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/world/europe/moldova-vlad-plahotniuc.html?_r=0

The Bulgarian presidential election has also gone to someone aiming for a pragmatic balance between Russia and the EU - and capitalising on disenchantment with membership:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bulgaria-election-idUSKBN13801Q?il=0

This is an interesting piece on the arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-13/kamikaze-drones-russian-missiles-jolt-oldest-ex-soviet-conflict

Azerbaijan's military budget is higher than Armenia's entire state budget. Both sides are buying from Russia - with Azerbaijan also using Israel as a supplier of weaponised drones.

Azerbaijan look the odds on favourites in terms of GDP, military strength, powerful allies etc if it kicked off. But they didn't seem to do so well last time.

Wasn't that before the oil boom?

Alexei Ulyukayev, the Russian Economy Minister, has become the first serving minister to be arrested since Beria:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37983744

It looks like the FSB might have run a sting operation culminating in him being caught asking for $2m to make sure the sale of Bashneft to Rosneft went through.

As the BBC article indicates, it's an odd one to start with - Bashneft and Rosneft are both mostly owned by the government.

Sceptics are split between "nobody is going to try to shake down Igor Sechin" and "$2m seems unrealistically small".

so SV or someone else, can you recommend a good English-language book on Putin and/or his rise to power?

i have seen masha gessen's 'man without a face' praised but have not read

I don't think there will be a good Putin book until after he is dead tbh. I tried a couple of them, including the Gessen one and found it quite sketchy/gossipy and not very compelling.

I keep meaning to go back to Kotkin's Armageddon Averted but I don't think that was in the same class as his Stalin book and don't feel compelled to finish it.

I would steer clear of Gessen, tbh.

From what I have seen of it, and her journalism more generally, Anna Arutunyan's The Putin Mystique might be a good bet in his popularity and leadership style but idk how much it deals with his rise to power.

Alex Navalny has announced he will run against Putin for the presidency in 2018.

His first set of policy announcements includes banning people from Central Asia and the Caucasus from visiting Russia without a visa.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯