Conventional Mealy Mouths: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 5

Is Donald Trump still expected to win the Republican nomination?

He was, then last week it seemed he wasn't.

Perhaps some of you can enlighten me!

He seems to have gone into a Witness Protection Program the past week. No one really knows what's going on.

He's been busy arranging more golf-related charitable donations.

Tees for the homeless, tam o'shanters for hurricane victims, that sort of thing.

"maybe frederik is just trying to get sanders to give up on trying to model america on any aspect of denmark"
HEY AMERIKKKA YUR DOING SOCIALISM WRONG

I don't think Trump is going to wind up with the delegates going into the convention, brokered convention seems likely at this point.

Coin flip thing still a myth btw

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/hillary-clinton-coin-flip-iowa-bernie-sanders/index.html

http://www.newser.com/story/219977/myth-busting-coin-tosses-didnt-decide-iowa-race.html

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465268206/coin-toss-fact-check-no-coin-flips-did-not-win-iowa-for-hillary-clinton

it was actually a three man sack race

shh this is between me and Frederik

Jimmah ain't happy with Hills:

Former President Carter says Hillary Clinton “took very little action” as secretary of State to bring about peace.

Carter, 89, made the remark about the former secretary of State and 2016 Democratic front-runner in a phone interview with Time magazine Wednesday night after he spoke at the Civil Rights Summit in Austin, Texas.

John Kerry has been successful as secretary of State, Carter said, because President Obama has been deeply involved in the foreign policy issues of his second term.

“In this occasion, when Secretary Clinton was Secretary of State, she took very little action to bring about peace. It was only John Kerry’s coming into office that reinitiated all these very important and crucial issues,” he said.

http://thehill.com/policy/international/203189-carter-on-clinton-she-took-very-little-action

two years old, but relevant

http://consequenceofsound.net/2016/04/michael-stipe-and-bernie-sanders-ate-hot-dogs-together-at-coney-island/

https://consequenceofsound.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/screen-shot-2016-04-10-at-11-13-21-pm.png?w=807

Everybody Berns

Swan, Swan, Hummingbern

Hurrah

Old Man Bernie, wants to be a president

This one Berns out to the Bern I Bern
This one Berns out to the Bern I've Berned... behind
A simple Bern to occupy my Ber
This Bern Berns out Bern Bern Bern I Bern

i am superbern
and i want those delegates

feel the bernstein

A Hundred Million Berns Fly Away

(King of Berns obv)

Disbernance at the hot dog house ok i'm out

what if we give it away? (a free college education)

@mtaibbi
Gotta love the "the system was never intended to be democratic" excuse in the superdelegate debate. A fave!

's true though

Laura Bush hints she'd rather see Hillary as president. No one is surprised, are they?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/08/laura-bush-hints-shed-rather-see-hillary-as-president-than-repub/

tbh i feel like the really perfect, deep-cut version of this joke is going to hit me in like eight months when i'm on an r.e.m. jag, so it goes

eevvverryybody berrrrnnns

Sometimes.

Dr. C: no matter when, you should still post it. I know I, at least, will laugh, also empathizing majorly with l'esprit de l'escalier type stuff.

"Laura Bush, the former first lady, has hinted she would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump, saying she wants the next American president to be someone who cares about women in Afghanistan."

yes, i can read. I'm sure the rest of HRC's political profile passes muster with her, too.

you know, like this shit from 2010

Sounding almost exasperated, Clinton indicated that Africa's arguments for the redress of economic imbalances left by colonialism were beginning to wear a little thin -- at least in Washington.

"For goodness sakes, this is the 21st century. We've got to get over what happened 50, 100, 200 years ago and let's make money for everybody. That's the best way to try to create some new energy and some new growth in Africa," she said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-usa-idUSTRE65D61920100614

it's amazing + sad that you're probably among the more educated + intelligent US voters

so, thirty-second version of bernie's erica garner spot is now, finally, in circulation - just got it on youtube before "back in the new york groove" by ace frehley. it's an all-right edit though i sincerely miss the parts that were more clearly about erica garner's own turn to activism which i found very powerful.

Meanwhile.

Trump's path to a general-election win has been assumed to be energized white voters (particularly the white voters variously categorized as non-college-educated / blue-collar / "downscale"). There is some polling that suggests that works only if the angry white people are all dudes. See the third chart here.

Trump is actually performing just below Romney’s 2012 totals among non-college whites. He does get a better margin than Romney among white non-college men, but that’s offset by the fact that he’s running behind Romney’s margin among white non-college women... Trump’s hopes of running up huge margins among blue collar whites might be complicated if he alienates white non-college women.

Meanwhile, as noted above, engagement is rising substantially among white non-college women (a potential problem for Trump) and among college women (who seem even more likely to be alienated by him), perhaps partly due to the seeming omnipresence of Trump’s sexism. Engagement is also rising substantially among nonwhites (if Trump under-performs among them, he’d have to drive his white vote margins even higher). And nearly half of Republican women (per Gallup) view him unfavorably.

Angry white men: If it weren't for that pesky 19th Amendment, they'd be unstoppable.

As rigged and weird as they can seem, the primaries have overall gotten considerably more democratic rather than less since their inception.

It is my sense that Mr Trump probably can't win the Presidency - but I still would like your view on the question, will he win the GOP nomination?

Only about a fortnight ago, everyone seemed to say he would.

Re: Trump's candidacy, I think we're in the third act of The Producers at this point.

"Kill the delegates..."

Cokie Roberts (I know, I know) made the obvious case this morning for why superdelegates mostly ain't gonna Bern -- they are by definition Democratic Party functionaries and office-holders, and unlike Bernie they're heavily invested in maintaining the party infrastructure. Bernie has basically not done anything for them. He hasn't campaigned or fund-raised for them, and he's not even actually a Democrat. There are a lot of weirdnesses in the way our political system revolves so heavily around the two parties, and legitimate things for reformers to protest against. But if we're going to have parties, they will look out for their own institutional interest and mostly nominate people who are committed not only to their platforms but to the whole party structure.

yup. so after the 19th, i am done with the POTUS election. hope the rest of you have enough Circus Peanuts!

xpost

And I think Bernie understands that, fwiw. But a lot of Bernie supporters seem to want to be able to essentially run a third-party campaign with the trappings and resources of a major party. (Trump supporters too, for that matter.)

because it's the only way to have the illusion of a prayer of winning?

(the usual 'other' elections thread has not been started yet, cuz notsexy)

yup. so after the 19th, i am done with the POTUS election. hope the rest of you have enough Circus Peanuts!

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius),

I just set a reminder to log back in to my mod account and threadban you from POTUS politics threads — no need to thank me.

it's possible to do that threadspecifically?

I think so, I'm not really sure.

yup. so after the 19th, i am done with the POTUS election. hope the rest of you have enough Circus Peanuts!

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Monday, April 11, 2016 12:25 PM (25 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

dude come on you are going to posting here in these threads on the regular every day for the rest of the year

How dare you suggest such a thing. Bye.

Well, maybe not 'bye' in the traditional sense of the word. It's a soft 'bye'.

I'm expecting some great new Hillary nicknames when you return