Conventional Mealy Mouths: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 5

even if that were voters, not delegates, nearly nobody lives in wyoming anyway, I wouldn't be shocked

yeah if there were any state i'd believe that about it'd be wyoming lol

Lol Trump has no campaign mgr in CA

Sanders is projected to win 55-45 in Wyoming, which seems to end up 7-7 delegate split. He needed 11-3 (a win with +57%) to be on track.

― Frederik B, Saturday, April 9, 2016 1:25 PM (1 hour ago)

Where did you read that the delegate split will be even? That doesn't sound right. He doesn't need 11-3 to be on track, he needs 8-6 (i.e., he needs 56.5% to 43.5% wins, not margins of 56.5 points).

Which is pretty much exactly what he got again, as with Wisconsin.

harry enten says it depends on goshan - if hill wins there it's an even split, if sanders does he's up 2 delegates

x-post: That's the old track, but Sanders has fallen a lot behind. Nate Silver made a new one: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/ And no, he did not hit that target in Wisconsin either, though it was close.

I'm talking about the track for the majority of pledged delegates.

Well, yeah, but which one?

Just a general one where he gets 56.5% of those remaining. I see that article is arguing that he needs bigger margins in particular states; that's obviously true.

Well, yeah. For all that the vote is closer than expected in NY, I don't think anyone expects a double digit Sanders win. Nor in Maryland or DC. Only just about hitting 57% in the second to last caucus, in one of the most 'demographically advantageous' states left, is not a good sign. Not when the idea was that 'dynamism' or 'momentum' from the last many wins should fuel a great big comeback.

Goshen goes Clinton. 7-7, it seems.

It's pretty obvious to most people that the safe bet is that Sanders won't win the nomination. But he was always a longshot and he's has made it close enough that it's obvious that his proposals resonate with a hell of a lot of voters.

I greatly doubt that the majority of the pro-Sanders votes are just Hillary haters who don't know or care that Bernie's in favor of that dreaded bugaboo 'socialized medicine', and he wants to break up the biggest mega-banks, or find a way to make college tuition-free. Conventional wisdom was that he'd get nowhere with a platform like that.

just found out my dad is for hillary and my mom and sister are for bernie, and it's so contentious they can't even discuss it! ffs people.

Sander's is like all the good grandpa's from the Great Depression that are now dying off, except I guess he's a bit younger and won't dead quite as soon.

it's totally predictable though. my dad is a Organization Guy. the biggest tribe provides the most safety. the team is all, loyalty to it is everything. when SEIU split from the AFL-CIO he washed his hands of them and admits their successes in glancing terms at best (but if it was trumka spearheading the fight for 15 you'd never hear the end of it from him)

did your dad go to college?

For me, my Bernie support USED to be about economic justice, socialized medicine, etc. At this point, I'd just like him to win so I can repost and mock the endless fucking arrogant horse-race-y, conventional wisdom-spouting strings of posts from Frederick and the rest of the ILXers who've been calling the the Sanders campaign DOA for the last 9 months as he went from 60+ points behind to within a few percentage points. We. Get. It.

tbf, most of the conventional wisdom-spouting horseshit posts about Sanders were from Freddie B. they hardly count, since almost everyone got on his case for them.

I'm not sure "only" winning by 11-12 points reflects negatively on his momentum at all.

If Sanders somehow pulls this off, I'll mock Shakey in-person.

That's weird because I just plain like Sanders but I sometimes find myself sort of rooting against him because of the endless Facebook posts (not so much on ilx) explaining how he's actually winning or how black voters in the south shouldn't count or how caucuses are actually much better representations of the will of the people than actual votes. But I try to resist this feeling because I do like the guy a lot and I see his unexpected success as good for the country. If I could vote against Seth Abramson, or the staff of Salon more generally, I would do that.

never vote for a President on terms of likability imo

I'm a registered Republican voting in the PA primary April 26. Recommendations on who I should vote for? Trump, Cruz, Kasich?

it's ok to not vote for a candidate who scares the bejabbers out of you

abstaining is a live option

for a long time i figured wyoming was just a legend or a myth, since i'd never been there, met anyone from there, or really heard it mentioned outside of western movies. but then i drove through it and... it exists! but yes, there are not many people there.

Bernie rally on the Coney boardwalk tomw, when it should be about 45 degrees

frigid April

my mom and sister are for bernie, and it's so contentious they can't even discuss it!

ugh so sexist

https://whatimg.com/i/fyoutR.jpg

https://whatimg.com/i/fyoutR.jpg

As Campaigns Seek Delegates, Ordinary Voters Feel Sidelined

By JEREMY W. PETERS

As Americans flock this year to outsider candidates, they are suddenly waking up to the reality that the process for picking the parties’ nominees involves ordinary voters in only an indirect way.

HEY HO WHADDYA KNOW

Yup. And because of Nebraska, Sanders can't complain about it. Such a dumb mistake.

Glenn Beck on Meet the Press this morning, bespectacled, sagacious, quoting Martin Luther King: "We're all in this together."

All the media bookers bringing him back from perdition, anyone have any kind of a memory?

http://sarthanapalos.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/beck-blackboard-coming.jpg?w=500

As Campaigns Seek Delegates, Ordinary Voters Feel Sidelined

what's the alternative here? do you want more, earlier general elections?

When this campaign is over a bunch of people will write a bunch of books about how weird it all was and why, and I won't read any of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvDMqmjWGs

we're just ordinary voters
we don't know which way to vote

there are some strange things in the boston globe's mock cover imagining a trump presidency:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2797782/Ideas-Trump-front-page.pdf

perhaps one national party primary is the solution, caek

however it will, like all such democratizing move happen in 50 years or never

And because of Nebraska

If 30 of us read this, i suspect 27 have no idea whut that means

lol

imho one national primary would not necessarily be better! all advantage goes to the most organized/pushed/"established" candidate. as goofy as the current system is it reminds me more of like, idk, bands on tour in the old days... building up a following, having time for word of mouth. not like we usually see "underground" candidates or anything, but something like what sanders has been able to do is nice to have around as a possibility.

there are arguments for flaws to the Primary system but it isn't like federal elections, they can just change their nominating process each election! and independent Trump supporters can sod right off - the system isn't broken, your candidate decided to run as a Republican and not a third-party and this is the process in place and should someone had run in Trump's place and run into the same "not enough delegates" conundrum, it'd be handled the same way. the only way they'd have a legit gripe is if he had the prerequisite number and they "ex post facto" him by changing the rules.

I agree w/ Casino on the bands analogy. Also feel like it allows the public to react over time to a candidate rather than making a rash decision based on a first impression. Neither Trump or Clinton can merely coast on their early wins (though both seem like they're trying like hell to do that in the last week or so) - which is why the cries on both side are annoying. Yeah, Trump is the overwhelming leader in delegates - because he had overwhelming success early in a crowded pool. His performance lately suggests he is nowhere near as popular even among his own party at the moment.

same w/ Clinton, though she has been more consistent than he has and results are easier to compare because it's been a two party race since almost the beginning.

Spike Lee ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lauspctcEqQ

surprised @ no double dolly shot

Belafonte could be a senior Jedi in the next SW film

such a dumb mistake

idgi. Sanders can't change the nominating process. How would the ability to complain about it help his campaign? Are you suggesting that voters decide who they'll vote for based on procedural issues in the nominating process?

i don't even know what this nebraska mistake is we're referring to