2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

"hillary clinton has never been called a nigger"

this is kind of interesting:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/12/should-obama-agree-to-seat-florida.aspx

raises the question of whether obama would benefit from simply conceding the florida delegates as they stand.

florida's largely clinton-friendly, and since he's likely to lose a florida re-vote anyway - though certainly not by as big a margin as he did in january - conceding the delegates-as-they-are would prevent any big clinton-momentum event spun by her w/ the media likely to follow.

What worries Obama managers in Chicago is the timing: if Florida is seen as a real re-do, and if the media portrays it as a wide open contest, a clear Clinton victory would give her a big bounce of momentum right as the primary window closes.

What's worse for Obama, taking the delegate hit that would result from seating Florida's delegation as is (in the neighborhood of a net 35 delegate loss), or going forward with a revote? The consensus--which seems right to me--is that he'd probably lose again, but by a narrower margin, with a delegate loss maybe half that, or less. What's more important--the delegates or the perception of late momentum?

it's a very interesting idea, especially considering the complete media bonanza about the clinton-comeback in ohio/texas, which had a real impact on the perception of the race, even though it changed virtually nothing about the delegate count.

might also be used as some bargaining leverage -- e.g. we'll give you florida-as-is if you give us a michigan caucus (or split michigan 50-50?).

apparently Ferraro's been fighting multiple myeloma for 10 years

it seems fairly clear that Clinton intends to strike no "deals" whatsoever and will not concede under any circumstances until someone fucking tells her to give it up OR ELSE

I think she'll drop out if it becomes clear that he has a stronger claim on electability, like if he won OH or TX. she's not convinced of that yet, and I might not totally be either.

but this bullshit where she's writing states off for the Dems in the Fall makes her the worst person in the world, afaic

A Kerry-level claim on electability?

Sullivan poster is overlooking that the rest of the GOP field was far more inept at attracting votes than Shril is, hence they "united" quickly.

If someone, anyone, could explain to me how this party is fit to lead, please, let them explain.

The fun part is neither is the other party, and if you consider a thirs, you're an "irrelevant" fantasist.

I have never heard of anyone recording a sermon here

Europeans don't have phones?

I doubt Barack's opponents are going to jump on Ministergate as it defeats the much more effective Muslimgate

although it might pop up later when more people have realized he's not a Muslim

Not on in church they don't, Morbs.

guys, you can't get to universal health care if your first bargaining position doesn't have an adult mandate, but it's totally ok to tell North Dakota and Texas to go fuck themselves

i was speaking to a friend last night of the opinion that Hillary's still in the race not necessarily out of pure ambition or greed, but because she already owes so many favors to her strategic allies and supporters that there is tremendous pressure on her to remain in the race -- for the people who've supported her and who are banking on access to her administration, dropping out is simply unacceptable. it's true to how she does politics and is a lot more relevant than "power hungry woman," i think.

what say you folks? accurate y/n?

that's a v. good point

she's still in the race because she still thinks she can win, and she may be right

people might have placed larger bets on her since she was "inevitable"

It is a good point. The moral of the story once again is not to write checks with mouth that your ass can't cash.

Hillary's still in the race not necessarily out of pure ambition

ambition, god forbid.

i mean, i'm not supporting her but criticisms like that (and things like "shrillary") do give me pause.

lauren, i'm not making any value judgements on ambition, but it does seem to be the most popular motive ascribed to her among her detractors

well, ambition and entitlement.

being the front for a gaggle of professional poli-whores isn't part of ambition? see PRETZEL BOY: neocons

btw I call her Shrillary bcz she turned particularly shrill about 4 weeks ago. I hadn't before.

i understand that it's something her detractors like to harp on. personally, i don't think that her ambition is somehow different from that of any number of other politicians.

Not that interested in where she and her team get their massive sense of entitlement; more concerned how encompassing it is and whether she has enough grace left to see the handwriting on the wall and concede in an appropriate fashion if it comes down to that(and I don't think it has, to be fair).

Haha wait you guys are defending the concept of a minister urging God to "damn" America for its crimes? I think I know what he was trying to say, but come on - that is strictly Phelps territory the way it came out. And unfortunately it plays right into the "Obama = an unsettling, alien presence" thing that's started to take shape -- predicted by Somerby, fulfilled by Dowd last week (Obama's "impassioned egghead advisers have made his campaign seem not only out of his control, but effete and vaguely foreign — the same unflattering light that doomed Michael Dukakis and John Kerry.") It's all complete horsesh*t of course, but horsesh*t is the currency of elections.

I've never understood the "entitled" criticism of Hillary either. What has Hillary said or done that betrays a sense of entitlement that goes beyond any other candidate? Is it because people have the feeling that she hasn't earned this perch she's on?

Or does any candidate painted as "the inevitable" nominee get this treatment? I don't remember people talking about Gore's sense of entitlement, or George Bush Sr's.

"I have so many opportunities for this country"

I'm not very impressed with Hillary as a politician, but it does seem that part of the criticism directed towards her is based on the implicit assumptions of how a woman should and should not be (for example, not overtly ambitious). The weirdest of all was to read those Germaine Greer comments, where she criticized Hillary because she is "cold and manipulative and bossy", and because her relationship with Bill is more rational than emotional. Okay, maybe that is her personal impression of Hillary, but doesn't she realize those are the very same arguments anti-feminists use against career women?

What has Hillary said or done that betrays a sense of entitlement that goes beyond any other candidate?

She refuses to humbly surrender to Obama.

How can a politician not be "ambitious"?

(exception made for Fred Thompson)

By putting the greater good ahead of cronyism.

The Wright thing seems like it could completely sink Obama in the general.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Penn_Obama_really_cant_win_the_general.html

Penn_Im_a_huge_asshole

What has Hillary said or done that betrays a sense of entitlement that goes beyond any other candidate?

how about "no delegate's vote is set in stone, I'll steal the ones obama has already won if I have to"

Haha wait you guys are defending the concept of a minister urging God to "damn" America for its crimes? I think I know what he was trying to say, but come on - that is strictly Phelps territory the way it came out. And unfortunately it plays right into the "Obama = an unsettling, alien presence" thing that's started to take shape -- predicted by Somerby, fulfilled by Dowd last week (Obama's "impassioned egghead advisers have made his campaign seem not only out of his control, but effete and vaguely foreign — the same unflattering light that doomed Michael Dukakis and John Kerry.") It's all complete horsesh*t of course, but horsesh*t is the currency of elections.

Again, I've been out-of-the-loop a bit, but if this is the image of Obama that's "started to take shape," it's a problem that he needs to address now. I'm a little worried about his ability to overcome these types of criticisms; not because he can't, but because he may be too over-committed to his public image as a politician that "rises above the fray." He needs to fight.

But I do that he will fight (and he's already started to do so, if those campaign memos of the past few days are an indication). I'm less worried about him falling victim to the same image problems as Dukakis and Kerry because he isn't them. Unlike Kerry (and HRC), he doesn't have to jump through hoops to explain his position on Iraq. And unlike both Dukakis and Kerry, Obama seems comfortable in his own skin. He's not awkward and doesn't appear to be trying to overcome elements of his personality that he fears won't appeal to voters. He's just a better candidate than they were (and than HRC is, in terms of their personal qualities, at least). Anyway, all of that makes me -- cautiously -- optimistic (I still think McCain will win the GE, mind you).

Sorry for the longwinded, incoherent post.

The Wright thing seems like it could completely sink Obama in the general

I think Obama tried to have a mini-"Sister Souljah moment" when he rescinded the invitation to have Wright introduce him when he announced his candidacy, but I think he may need to go a bit further.

Here's a blog post from TPM calling for Obama to speak more forcefully in repudiating some of Wright's remarks:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/crazy-like-an-uncle.php

Re: the Wright stuff, I think Josh Marshall's analysis is spot-on. He assumes that people affiliated with Clinton are floating this stuff to the press, which seems like a safe bet to me. And while I do think Wright's comments are a problem for Obama, I really doubt this will sink him now or in the GE.

Is there any evidence that Clinton's campaign is pushing the Wright stuff now? It seems like Good Morning America and FOX decided to run with it on their own.

Details of a possible delegate plan under discussion:

–Michigan’s 156 delegates would be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.

–Florida’s existing delegates would be seated at the Denver convention—but with half a vote each. That would give Clinton a net gain of about 19 elected delegates.

– The two states’ superdelegates would then be able to vote in Denver, likely netting Clinton a few more delegates.

http://thepage.time.com/details-of-a-possible-delegate-plan-under-discussion

How could they not? xpost

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Is there any evidence that Clinton's campaign is pushing the Wright stuff now? It seems like Good Morning America and FOX decided to run with it on their own.

Maybe they did, but they're not going to say the Hillary campaign gave them the story, which happens all the time.

really, it could have come from any number of parties interested in tying obama to wright's controversial statements, but don't fool yourself about the self-directing agency of media outlets; these types of 'newsworthy' stories are sold to the press by parties who need axes ground.

Obviously no one's pushing it publicly, but you better believe they are behind closed doors. What do you think they mean when they keep complaining that Obama hasn't been properly "vetted" by the media?

Is accusing the Clinton campaign of pushing unsubstantiated smears without any evidence of such wrongdoing in fact an unsubstantiated smear?

wait, hillary is the victim again?

My apologies for the cognitive dissonance. Hillary is evil - Obama is good. Carry on.

uh you know were not the media right