Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

NATO won't cut Turkey loose bc they'd lose the influence they currently exert over it

Turkey has been a member since 1951 and under several dictatorships since.

The Turkmen issue has been a bit of a nationalist flashpoint recently - hardliners in Turkey had been pushing for action to stop Russia attacking what they see as their kinfolk (in the same way as Russian nationalists would push for intervention if ethnic Russians were being threatened in Turkmenistan, or wherever). Killing three servicemen is highly unlikely to get them to stop bombing and they don't even need to use planes - they could fire cruise missiles from the Med. I can't see any upside for Turkey and they've massively increased the chances of their own planes getting shot down if they enter Syria - which they apparently did this morning when attacking the Russian jet. The Turkish ambassador to the UN claimed the plane was in Turkish airspace for a total of seventeen seconds.

Unless there's a very clever game being played, it looks unfathomably stupid.

Erdogen does not necessarily seem like a level headed strategist tbh

agree that Erdogan seems like a boor, even so I doubt he ordered them to shoot that plane down

otoh neither NATO or Putin want some kind of Cold War escalation. By indicating that he's willing to shoot down Russian planes he might keep Putin away from the border with little cost ultimately

Kind of crazy to consider just how many long simmering ethnic divisions exist in that general region, even before you toss Russia (or France, or the US) into the mix.

I almost feel like shooting down a Russian plane was an immature reaction, kind of like giving a kid doing something dangerous so many warnings that you eventually have to let them find out the cost of carelessness themselves. Isn't this exactly what people feared/predicted as soon as Russia started flying there?

There were reports that Davutoğlu ordered the plane to be shot down personally and there's no way that he wouldn't have had prior authorisation from Erdogan to take that action in those circumstances.

By indicating that he's willing to shoot down Russian planes he might keep Putin away from the border with little cost ultimately

The cost will be huge! And it's also unlikely to keep them away.

Missing Russian jet pilot 'alive and well' in Syria

http://www.juancole.com/2015/11/turkey-russian-plane.html

The Davutoglu government risks substantial economic harm. Russian tourism has boosted the Turkish economy, and Russia was planning an important gas pipeline through Turkey as well as the building for Ankara of a nuclear power reactor. All those activities have just been cancelled, and tour operators in Russia are looking for other tourist markets after pressure from the Putin government. Russia is attributing the attack to an attempt by Turkish officials to protect gasoline smuggling routes from Daesh (ISIL, ISIS) to Turkey, but the geography of the shoot-down tells against this interpretation. This was near al-Qaeda territory in the northwest, not Daesh territory in the northeast, and the issue is arms smuggling, not oil smuggling.

Turkey has backed a range of Muslim fundamentalist groups in northern Syria in hopes of eventually overthrowing the Baath government of Bashar al-Assad. Turkey is also afraid of the leftist Kurds of northern Syria, which are accused of attempting to ethnically cleanse Arab and Turkmen villages that stand in the way of their establishing land bridges between the three major Kurdish cantons of northern Syria. The People’s Protection Unites (YPG) or leftist Kurdish militias have already linked two of these cantons, defeating Daesh in order to do so. The third, Afrin, is separated from Kobane by a set of Arab and Turkmen villages north of Aleppo
...

One of Russia’s current strategic goals is to keep Latakia Province from falling to the rebels. Latakia contains a crucial port of the same name, as well as the Tartous naval facility leased to the Russians. Latakia is heavily Alawite, the Shiite group that is a mainstay of the al-Assad government.

Russia appears to have been attempting to cut off a smuggling route for CIA weapons such as T.O.W. anti-tank missiles through Jabal Turkmen by attacking the Turkmen militias of northern Latakia Province, in the interests of shoring up the al-Assad government there. This attack may also have been intended to panic Turkmen populations into fleeing over the border into Turkey, thus removing a power base for Turkey on the Syrian side of the border and removing a group that would aid al-Qaeda and its allies in Jisr al-Shughour to move west.

Turkey's intelligence agency, MIT, has definitely been smuggling arms via that route. They have been caught doing so, rather embarrassingly, by the Turkish police - which didn't go down well with Davutoğlu .

Whether the weapons came from the CIA or went to the Turkmen, which had been hinted at but not proven, remains open to question though.

Fascinating NYT story about the anarchist/feminist/environmentalist/personality-cult/militarist Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/magazine/a-dream-of-utopia-in-hell.html

"Xwinda" is an awesome real name

ocalan is pretty interesting + has a lot to say about ziggurats

NY Times also with coverage on ISIS movement to Libya

“A great exodus of the Islamic State leadership in Syria and Iraq is now establishing itself in Libya,” said Omar Adam, 34, the commander of a prominent militia based in Misurata.

The group in Surt has also begun imposing the parent organization’s harsh version of Islamic law on the city, enforcing veils for all women, banning music and cigarettes, and closing shops during prayers, residents and recent visitors said. The group carried out at least four crucifixions in August.

...But this summer the Iraqi government stopped paying salaries in Mosul and Anbar Province, and shifts on the battlefield have prevented public employees in Islamic State territory from reaching banks on the outside to cash their paychecks.

“ISIS is still strong,” said the manager of an electronics store who lives in Raqqa. “But it has lost popularity among ordinary, uneducated people because it has lost its brilliant victories.”

Perhaps hoping to sustain its image of invincibility, the Islamic State’s propaganda has increasingly promoted the operations of its foreign affiliates. Western intelligence agencies say it is devoting more resources to them as well.

Most remain largely autonomous. The Egyptian branch of the Islamic State, deemed second after Libya’s in the scale of its threat, had a long record as a domestic insurgency before pledging its allegiance. The branch appears to have acted on its own initiative to carry out the bombing of the Russian charter jet on Oct. 31, say Western officials familiar with the intelligence reports. But the objective, those officials say, was to impress the group’s central leadership in order to win financial support
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/world/middleeast/isis-grip-on-libyan-city-gives-it-a-fallback-option.html?mabReward=CTM&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

More possible casussen belli (though the source is questionable): Turkey blockading Russia from Dardanelles

amazing photobomb at the paris talks

http://www.jpost.com/HttpHandlers/ShowImage.ashx?id=319793&h=530&w=758

Kurdish fighters say US special forces have been fighting Isis for months

Good essay:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n23/adam-shatz/magical-thinking-about-isis

And for IS, an offshoot of al-Qaida in Iraq, the distinction between near and far enemies is porous: all apostates are enemies. Although it has conquered a significant piece of territory – something bin Laden and Zawahiri never dared attempt – its power is only partly rooted in the caliphate. It is as keen to conquer virtual as actual territory. It draws on a growing pool of recruits who discovered not only IS but Islam itself online, in chatrooms and through messaging services where distance vanishes at the tap of a keyboard. Indeed, the genius of IS has been to overcome the distance between two very different crises of citizenship, and weave them into a single narrative of Sunni Muslim disempowerment: the exclusion of young Muslims in Europe, and the exclusion of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq.

Soon after launching a brutal air and ground assault in Yemen, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia began devoting significant resources to a sophisticated public relations blitz in Washington, D.C.

The PR campaign is designed to maintain close ties with the U.S. even as the Saudi-led military incursion into the poorest Arab nation in the Middle East has killed nearly 6,000 people, almost half of them civilians.

Elements of the charm offensive include the launch of a pro-Saudi Arabia media portal operated by high-profile Republican campaign consultants; a special English-language website devoted to putting a positive spin on the latest developments in the Yemen war; glitzy dinners with American political and business elites; and a non-stop push to sway reporters and policymakers.

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/01/inside-saudi-charm-campaign/

these guys can't catch a break:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/01/syria-msf-hospital-homs-barrel-bombing

so is russia no longer violating turkish airspace or is turkey no longer shooting down russian planes?

If Russia were violating Turkish airspace, while not getting shot down for their incursions, it is reasonable to assume that the Turkish government would be vociferously complaining about the violations. Based only on this conjecture, I'd favor the idea that Russia has not been violating Turkish airspace in recent days.

putin is claiming that turkey shot down the plane for disrupting their illegal ISIS oil trade

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ seems plausible to me tbh

So, is Putin saying that Russian planes were strafing or bombing in Turkish territory? If so, then it's no surprise if they were shot down. No love lost between those two countries.

If the Russian planes were strafing or bombing inside Syrian territory, then why would Putin now stop his forces from continuing to disrupt that oil trade, assuming that was a valued target just a few days ago? No doubt there would be radar or other evidence that could verify the Turkish aggression against those legitimate attacks.

ppl pretty much believe that the planes were definitely in turkish airspace tho probably v briefly iirc? and shot down over syria?

it's complicated either way obv; this article takes the loooong view https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2015-11-29/clash-empires

like even if russia did invade turkish airspace they'd need to be pretty upset about that fact to shoot down one of their planes. acc to israel russia flies over their airspace all the time - so i feel like more the question is was turkey upset bc russia is disrupting ISIS trade or bc they're bombing ethnic turkmen which feels like a more reasonable objection to me?

Russia still pushing this claim:

"Turkey is the main destination for the oil stolen from its legitimate owners, which are Syria and Iraq," Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told journalists in Moscow. "Turkey resells this oil. The appalling part about it is that the country's top political leadership is involved in the illegal business — President Erdogan and his family."

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/russia-accuses-turkeys-erdogan-involvement-isis-oil-trade-n472596

The PR campaign is designed to maintain close ties with the U.S. even as the Saudi-led military incursion into the poorest Arab nation in the Middle East has killed nearly 6,000 people, almost half of them civilians.

so this is why Im hearing all these stories about Saudis letting their wimmin folk finally vote for the schoolboard or whatever shitty concession theyre getting.

Errrrrrrrrrr

Putin is an excellent troll.

maybe this is a good opportunity to share this wild meme that's been going around. apparently the vilna gaon said in the 18th century:

Rabbi Lazer Brody – “Rav Shternbuch received a closely guarded secret that came to him from Rabbi Yitzchak Chever zatza”l, who received it from Rabbi Chaim of Volozhyn zatza”l, who received it from the Gaon of Vilna himself, who revealed it shortly before his death:

“When you hear that the Russians have captured the city of Crimea, you should know that the times of the Messiah have started, that his steps are being heard. And when you hear that the Russians have reached the city of Constantinople (today’s Istanbul), you should put on your Shabbat clothes and don’t take them off, because it means that the Messiah is about to come any minute.”

Russia, Turkey, France, UK and Crimea... hmmmmmmmmmm

lol how many times have Russians occupied the Crimea

well obv that would be why it would it would be on the the lithuanian rabbi's radar. i mean at various times in history the idea of russia occupying turkey hasn't seemed so implausible either - more plausible than today what w/ NATO + shit i'd think.

yeah I mean hasn't Russian desire for the Bosporus been a considerable driver of its foreign policy for a long time?

"And if they just shoot down a plane -- not that I know what that is - well, don't get too excited but maybe at least take a shower just in case, you never know"

not sure they knew what showers were either :p

Trump is going to Israel to meet with Netanyahu. How exciting...

lol hurting

well this is not a good development if true

It doesn't sound like this ISIS-affiliated group in Sinai is all that substantial though.

Was he not shot dead in 2014?

I know these dudes are like Michael Myers but this is ridiculous.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27533169

Apparently not!

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tribal-coalition-egypts-sinai-puts-bounty-head-militant-leader-1244577872

this is hardly a revelation but I'm always struck by how young and stupid these guys look.

or old + psychotic

i think this is the dynamic of all extremists groups

yeah like middle aged shmoes w kids aren't gonna be so into this - you either gotta be young and stupid or totally decrepit and cynical