a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

yes and the front runners today are carson and trump, neither of whom will win. nobody at the time thought dean or giuliani were sure things and cain was obviously a joke. bush's poll numbers were bad earlier and people thought he was the #1 candidate. bush's poll numbers are bad now and people don't, because his campaign has been a disaster, he projects the image of a loser and republican party elites have very clearly been distancing himself with him over the last few weeks. that is not 'the number one candidate on paper' anymore.

xp

"distancing himself with him " should be "distancing themselves from him"

"Markets actually perform most poorly relative to projections using polls in the early stages of the campaign. This is clear in Figure 6, which displays the average error of vote- share prices and vote projections over the timeline of the campaign. Early on, market prices respond to information that is—judging by the actual vote—often quite wrong. Only toward the end of the campaign do the markets catch up. That they do catch up makes considerable sense, because toward the campaign’s end market actors can efficiently absorb the wealth of poll information without being distracted by other possible electoral forces. As Election Day approaches, there is little new for the market to anticipate, correctly or incorrectly.

What do we learn about the vote-share market? Election markets have been touted as augurs because they are capable of taking into account information beyond the electorate’s preferences at the moment as reflected in the polls. In other words, they supposedly incorporate not only current sentiment but also future shifts in sentiment that can be anticipated by knowledgeable observers. We have learned, however, that prices in the IEM vote share market are no better, and in fact a bit worse, at predicting the vote than are projections based on the day’s most recent polls. Where the market holds to a view of the election at odds with the poll projections, it is somewhat more likely to be wrong than right.
...
In theory, market prices incorporate the signal of information about the future course of voter preferences beyond what we would predict from current polls. In practice, the market’s reading of the signal contains considerable noise. That much we know because market prices perform more poorly than our poll projections.
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Where then do the markets go wrong? To begin with, consider the vote-share market. The histories of market prices show that traders tend to hold persistent beliefs about the vote division that contradict the polls and that these persistent beliefs are often wrong. Incorrect beliefs get corrected only in the last days before the election, when the polls are difficult to ignore."

http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/files/EriksonWlezien_Markets_AAPOR_for_POLLY(1).pdf

"he projects the image of a loser"

like, onto the side of a building or something?

i don't buy the "gaffe-proof" thing tbh. trump is gaffe-proof, because the people he appeals to don't care about what he says, but about how he says it. but an "oops" moment is still a real thing. yes, spouting nonviable and off-topic policy positions and failing to answer the debate questions, while alarming, has been standard protocol for eons, so while it's worrisome that those things don't constitute gaffes, that's not to say that nothing constitutes a gaffe. WHAT IF bush hadn't totally miffed his attempt to grill rubio on his no-show votes, AND rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer? he would look bad, and the narrative would be "rubio can't answer to tough grilling from a newly fired-up bush" etc. obviously that's what bush was hoping for, and maybe it's inherent to bush's character that he was unable to pull that off, but something like that's not outside the realm of possibility.

the bigger hope though is for a "47% of americans" or "macaca" moment --- for somebody to say or do something utterly boneheaded, offensive and career-ruining on camera not at the debates but at some random event, and for it to actually get picked up and go viral. this has of course been happening, but so far the only buzz-worthy clips (kasich and christie being condescending and rude as shit to female voters with issues questions) have only been offensive to people who weren't voting in this primary anyway.

Rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer?

He did!

Kerry and McCain had already been in the Senate 18 and 22 years, respectively, when they ran for president (McCain's second try, that is).

like, onto the side of a building or something?

do you honestly think this is a good zing?

anyway I don't think that data from Iowa Electronic Market data from presidential elections in 1988 is comparable to markets in 2015. the polls today have carson as the #1 candidate, betting markets have rubio. do you believe polls are more predictive in this particular case?

doesn't matter to this crowd because victimhood is easy

most polished victimhood quote, courtesy of Cruz:

“Let me be clear. The men and women on this stage have more ideas, more experience, more common sense, than every participant in the Democratic debate. That debate reflected a debate between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks.

Best part about that: Chuck Todd revealing on Twitter that he'd never heard of the Mensheviks. A real student of history, that guy.

WHAT IF bush hadn't totally miffed his attempt to grill rubio on his no-show votes, AND rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer? he would look bad, and the narrative would be "rubio can't answer to tough grilling from a newly fired-up bush" etc. obviously that's what bush was hoping for, and maybe it's inherent to bush's character that he was unable to pull that off, but something like that's not outside the realm of possibility.

I think they've all just learned to not show weakness, which is easier when the content of their responses to the grilling doesn't matter. those 'oops' moments are few and far between because you can say whatever the hell you want as long as you're confident and cocky and maybe drop a line about hillary clinton somewhere near the end.

nate silver says bush is probably toast

he likes to eat both for breakfast amirite

for real though he doesn't think bush can recover

from that lashing he just gave it w/ his tongue amirite

ok i'll stop

nate silver is skeptical that jeb bush will be the gop nominee

That silver tongued devil.

donald trump read my last few posts and offered me a job as a speechwriter. he asked me an example of a speech i might write for him and i said "i'm going to write a fantastic speech." "kid - you're hired" he replied.

I'm not saying Jeb! will be the nominee. I don't know who will be the nominee and neither do you. Writing him off, however, is foolish. He may be a terrible politician, but so were, to varying degrees, Mitt Romney, John McCain, John Kerry, arguably both 2000 candidates, Bob Dole, and George H.W. Bush. To focus on his weaknesses alone is to ignore those that infect every single other candidate in the field.

The winner of this thing is going to be the one who best transcends their weaknesses. Jeb certainly has not done that yet, and there is good reason to believe that he won't, but he has a lot of time and money with which to do so. Rubio has not done it either, but may be on his way up.

It will be interesting to see how much bounce Rubio can get out of this. He may have parried quite legitimate attacks on him - a successful attack, albeit from a position of weakness - in a way that feeds the conservative desire for blustery, apparently-confident rhetorical responses to dangerous challenges, aided by a smart strategic operation that filled the room with supporters guided to applaud on cue, but, as someone who admittedly only selectively watched the debate, I'm not sure he otherwise gave GOP voters the reassurance they are seeking from a candidate as either politician or policymaker.

As a young Cuban-American, he remains something of an odd fit, worse than his fellow and more adult-seeming (half-)Cuban-American candidate, for an old, white party, something that commentators (and bettors) of his or younger generations frequently miss. Only Democrats have made a habit of nominating young guys, and this one is not cut from those Dems' cloth - he does not have JFK/WHC/BHO's deep intellectual or emotional intelligence, great self-confidence, gravitas, or suavity. *pause for sip of water* I'd add discipline too if that didn't raise some chuckles about the Dems, but I don't see him burning the candle at both ends like Bill either. He's also comparatively short, with somewhat bad hair (imo), and though I may not be the best judge of such things I doubt he has any of the Dems' sex appeal.

P.S. http://gawker.com/5994678/here-are-the-career-ending-marco-rubio-rumors-buzzfeed-wants-to-write-about-without-writing-about

he asked me an example of a speech i might write for him and i said "i'm going to write a fantastic speech." "kid - you're hired" he replied.

Great!

Rubio's voice shakes like a college sophomore in a poli sci course. He's never grown up.

terrific jeb! content

https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/659589465963438080

https://twitter.com/jaredbkeller/status/659552683737661440

yeah on paper he's the worst opponent for hillary- young, fresh, hispanic* - but she will eat him alive. that dude looked like dubya in the classroom at the mention of his credit card debt. complete lightweight.

alfred otm, idk how people can think "i want to hear this guy talk for two terms"

I'll admit I was wrong about Bush. It's gonna be Rubio if Trump's asshole doesn't absorb Trump.

i just remember watching his sotu response and (neverminding the water bottle even) thinking 'i'm supposed to be scared of that?'

yeah on paper he's the worst opponent for hillary- young, fresh, hispanic* - but she will eat him alive. that dude looked like dubya in the classroom at the mention of his credit card debt. complete lightweight.

I think the 'rubio can be our obama' dream lets them kinda look past a lot of that stuff. this one of the few idiot taxes republicans end up having to pay sometimes. they genuinely believe that young people/minorities have really simple voting habits, voted for obama because he looked like them and gave them stuff. of course hispanics and young people would vote for a young hispanic dude over an old lady.

plus, Rubio is Cuban American, therefore repellent to every other Hispanic group.

agree that Hillary will eat Rubio alive and his negatives with his own party will damage him, by all means plz nominate him GOPers

i think republicans need to nom trump. rubio has a higher floor but his ceiling isn't high enough to beat hillary. trump is more of a hail mary but i could actually envision a scenario where he could be competitive in the general.

"As a young Cuban-American, he remains something of an odd fit, worse than his fellow and more adult-seeming (half-)Cuban-American candidate, for an old, white party"

I should have said "as a young, urban, Cuban-American (syncretic-)Catholic (nee Mormon), he remains something of an odd fit ... for an old, rural, white protestant party"

Pop Quiz 1: Who is the oldest candidate in the adults-table field?

Pop Quiz 2: Who is the second oldest and most religious?

Helpful hint: 1 and 2 recently got into a spat over who was more mainstream-protestant

why don't you take a break from being a belligerent knowitall and just tell us

Was just in a meeting with my boss and saw one of those red "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" Trump hats on a shelf behind him. Almost literally shuddered. Oh, well, this is the easiest and highest-paying job I've ever had, so...fuck it.

I get the impression that had he lived 100 years ago gabbneb would've been deep into phrenology

why don't you take a break from being a belligerent knowitall and just tell us

― goole, Thursday, October 29, 2015 11:50 AM (21 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

"belligerent"? lol.

The info is easily-accessible on Wikipedia, so you know it all already per previous comments.

Helpful hint 2: They are the two national poll leaders.

I get the impression that had he lived 100 years ago gabbneb would've been deep into phrenology

― Οὖτις, Thursday, October 29, 2015 11:59 AM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The ! connotes excitement.

come on man for once take a hint

how exhausting is it, being you? just ease up, it's ok

benbbag how do you measure religiousness?

whoever can most easily translate Proust into tongues

gabbs should just stop delaying the inevitable and say something racist so we can all ban him (again)

clearly that doesn't work anymore otherwise a couple of current posters would currently be banned

I assume I missed something

Speaking of which I've asked the mods to delete my post above about body-slamming cops. It's racist and is not really the joke I wanted to make.

Sanders calls for full decriminalization of marijuana at the federal level

my basic breakdown is this:

1. I agree the most with Sanders. I would vote for Sanders in a primary.
2. I agree with both Sanders and Clinton enough that I could vote eagerly and enthusiastically for either of them in a general election.
3. Every Republican who has come forward so far seems to be fucking insane except maybe Kasich, with whom I profoundly disagree and would not vote for, and mmmmmmmmaybe Rubio on a good day if I don't listen to what he is actually saying?